The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Stephen F. Austin <1%, UT Rio Grande Valley 12%, Houston Christian 16%
Win out <1% · expect 0.3 of 3 more wins
Northwestern State's chance to win each game left, from our model: UT Rio Grande Valley 12%, Houston Christian 16%, Stephen F. Austin <1%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Zach Wilcke 1,480 · Rushing Zach Wilcke 331 · Receiving Amaaz Eugene 386 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | Louisiana Christian | L 37-42 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Johnston 319 · Rush Davis 124 · Rec Duncan 93 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Louisiana Tech | L 6-80 120 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Johnston 43 · Rush Ingram 48 · Rec Rhodes 25 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @East Texas A&M | L 14-38 | 0-3 | 0-1 | Pass Johnston 62 · Rush Wilcke 52 · Rec Davis 67 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Weber State | L 20-49 | 0-4 | 0-1 | Pass Wilcke 291 · Rush Wilcke 49 · Rec Davis 66 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | SE Louisiana | L 21-52 | 0-5 | 0-2 | Pass Wilcke 254 · Rush Wilcke 38 · Rec Webb 72 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Lamar | L 14-42 | 0-6 | 0-3 | Pass Wilcke 206 · Rush Davis 30 · Rec Eugene 108 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | McNeese | L 21-24 | 0-7 | 0-4 | Pass Wilcke 229 · Rush Davis 64 · Rec Moreland 64 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Nicholls | L 27-31 | 0-8 | 0-5 | Pass Wilcke 356 · Rush Wilcke 74 · Rec Eugene 161 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Incarnate Word | L 14-66 | 0-9 | 0-6 | Pass Johnston 81 · Rush Wilcke 12 · Rec Peveto 54 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 2 pm ET12% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Houston Christian | 2 pm ET16% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 19 | @Stephen F. Austin | 7 pm ET<1% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Northwestern State, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Incarnate Word | L 14-66 | — | — | — | −0.292 | 20.5% | 1.50 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | Nicholls | L 27-31 | — | — | — | +0.154 | 44.3% | 1.30 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | McNeese | L 21-24 | — | — | — | −0.135 | 36.1% | 1.20 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 3 | @Lamar | L 14-42 | — | — | — | −0.119 | 24.3% | 1.60 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 26 | SE Louisiana | L 21-52 | — | — | — | −0.019 | 46.0% | 1.09 | Best success rate |
| Sep 19 | @Weber State | L 20-49 | — | — | — | −0.052 | 31.0% | 1.61 | Most explosive |
| Sep 12 | @East Texas A&M | L 14-38 | — | — | — | −0.223 | 36.2% | 0.94 | |
| Sep 5 | @Louisiana Tech | L 6-80 | 129 | 1 | 35:08 | −0.239 | 17.5% | 1.03 | Defense's roughest night |
| Aug 27 | Louisiana Christian | L 37-42 | — | — | — | +0.135 | 44.0% | 1.28 | One-score loss |
| Season average (9 games) | 129 | 1.0 | −0.088 | 33.3% | 1.28 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
0-10 over the last 10, and lost the last ten.
Range of outcomes · Northwestern State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
0 wins 74%; 1 wins 24%; 2 wins 2%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 0-9
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Southland teams the same season
Northwestern State is the Natchitoches Demons that produced two NFL Rookies of the Year and won the Southland four times — and nobody in the Power Four cares, which is the entire story.
Northwestern State is the Natchitoches Demons that produced two NFL Rookies of the Year and won the Southland four times — and nobody in the Power Four cares, which is the entire story.
Range of outcomes · Northwestern State · 2026