The rest of the season
One real test left: Stephen F. Austin 31%
Win out 27% · expect 2.2 of 3 more wins
Lamar's chance to win each game left, from our model: Stephen F. Austin 31%, East Texas A&M 97%, McNeese 91%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Aiden McCown 1,699 · Rushing Jojo Uga 530 · Receiving Blake Thomas 472 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Abilene Christian | W 21-14 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass McCown 183 · Rush Jenkins 56 · Rec Thomas 44 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Louisiana | L 7-38 128 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass McCown 126 · Rush Uga 24 · Rec Fuselier 35 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Idaho | W 23-17 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass McCown 159 · Rush Uga 105 · Rec Driskell 55 |
| 3 | Bye week | |||||
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Nicholls | W 49-18 | 3-1 | 1-0 | Pass McCown 232 · Rush McCown 80 · Rec Driskell 110 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Northwestern State | W 42-14 | 4-1 | 2-0 | Pass McCown 172 · Rush Uga 85 · Rec Thomas 80 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Incarnate Word | W 38-35 | 5-1 | 3-0 | Pass McCown 123 · Rush Uga 144 · Rec Thomas 47 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @SE Louisiana | L 31-34 | 5-2 | 3-1 | Pass McCown 297 · Rush Uga 51 · Rec Thomas 109 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Houston Christian | W 35-10 | 6-2 | 4-1 | Pass McCown 240 · Rush Uga 83 · Rec Driskell 86 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @UT Rio Grande Valley | W 52-23 | 7-2 | 5-1 | Pass McCown 167 · Rush Jenkins 65 · Rec Jenkins 48 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Stephen F. Austin | 4 pm ET31% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | East Texas A&M | 4 pm ET97% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @McNeese | 7 pm ET91% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Lamar, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @UT Rio Grande Valley | W 52-23 | — | — | — | +0.297 | 43.5% | 1.34 | Blowout win |
| Oct 24 | Houston Christian | W 35-10 | — | — | — | +0.230 | 47.3% | 1.17 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 17 | @SE Louisiana | L 31-34 | — | — | — | +0.279 | 44.0% | 1.36 | One-score loss |
| Oct 10 | Incarnate Word | W 38-35 | — | — | — | +0.060 | 33.8% | 1.54 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | Northwestern State | W 42-14 | — | — | — | +0.372 | 57.4% | 1.16 | Best success rate |
| Sep 26 | @Nicholls | W 49-18 | — | — | — | +0.405 | 43.1% | 1.75 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Idaho | W 23-17 | — | — | — | +0.094 | 42.1% | 1.03 | One-score win |
| Sep 5 | @Louisiana | L 7-38 | 205 | 4 | 26:22 | −0.122 | 40.3% | 0.98 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | Abilene Christian | W 21-14 | — | — | — | +0.122 | 38.8% | 1.06 | One-score win |
| Season average (9 games) | 205 | 4.0 | +0.193 | 43.4% | 1.27 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last two.
Range of outcomes · Lamar · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
8 wins 8%; 9 wins 64%; 10 wins 27%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-2
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Southland teams the same season
Lamar is 7-2 and hosts Stephen F. Austin next.
Lamar is 7-2 and hosts Stephen F. Austin next.
Range of outcomes · Lamar · 2026