The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Lamar 9%, SE Louisiana 24%, Houston Christian 48%
Win out 1% · expect 0.8 of 3 more wins
McNeese's chance to win each game left, from our model: Houston Christian 48%, SE Louisiana 24%, Lamar 9%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Devin Lippold 744 · Rushing Omiri Wiggins 577 · Receiving Elisha Edwards 409 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Stephen F. Austin | L 27-38 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Pass Lippold 118 · Rush Wiggins 126 · Rec Deville 71 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | Texas Wesleyan | W 52-0 | 1-1 | 0-1 | Pass Lippold 199 · Rush Davis 67 · Rec Edwards 77 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Tarleton State | L 24-27 | 1-2 | 0-1 | Pass Lippold 286 · Rush Wiggins 81 · Rec Edwards 111 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @UT Rio Grande Valley | L 10-27 | 1-3 | 0-2 | Pass Lippold 141 · Rush Lippold 45 · Rec Deville 71 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | East Texas A&M | W 27-24 | 2-3 | 1-2 | Pass Strong 202 · Rush Wiggins 116 · Rec Edwards 71 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @LSU | L 14-63 148 | 2-4 | 1-2 | Pass Barrier 74 · Rush Levi 64 · Rec Levi 46 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Northwestern State | W 24-21 | 3-4 | 2-2 | Pass Strong 282 · Rush Swilley 70 · Rec Rideau 101 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Incarnate Word | L 6-38 | 3-5 | 2-3 | Pass Barrier 127 · Rush Davis 63 · Rec Edwards 48 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Nicholls | W 16-3 | 4-5 | 3-3 | Pass Barrier 24 · Rush Wiggins 107 · Rec Swilley 32 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Houston Christian | 5 pm ET48% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @SE Louisiana | 7 pm ET24% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Lamar | 7 pm ET9% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for McNeese, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Nicholls | W 16-3 | — | — | — | −0.369 | 22.2% | 1.09 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | @Incarnate Word | L 6-38 | — | — | — | −0.204 | 28.8% | 1.15 | Blowout loss |
| Oct 17 | @Northwestern State | W 24-21 | — | — | — | −0.098 | 34.3% | 1.29 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | @LSU | L 14-63 | 196 | 1 | 22:47 | −0.145 | 24.5% | 1.41 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 26 | East Texas A&M | W 27-24 | — | — | — | +0.182 | 34.9% | 1.49 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | @UT Rio Grande Valley | L 10-27 | — | — | — | −0.072 | 34.9% | 0.99 | |
| Sep 12 | Tarleton State | L 24-27 | — | — | — | +0.283 | 43.4% | 1.45 | One-score loss |
| Sep 5 | Texas Wesleyan | W 52-0 | — | — | — | +0.414 | 47.0% | 1.61 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | Stephen F. Austin | L 27-38 | — | — | — | +0.246 | 39.7% | 1.78 | Most explosive |
| Season average (9 games) | 196 | 1.0 | +0.026 | 34.4% | 1.36 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Range of outcomes · McNeese · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 36%; 5 wins 48%; 6 wins 15%; 7 wins 1%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-5
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Southland teams the same season
McNeese is 4-5 and plays at Houston Christian next.
McNeese is 4-5 and plays at Houston Christian next.
Range of outcomes · McNeese · 2026