The rest of the season
Every game left is at least 70%
Win out 52% · expect 2.4 of 3 more wins
Tarleton State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Abilene Christian 73%, West Florida 88%, North Alabama 80%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Kaden Anderson 2,618 · Rushing Tylan Hines 851 · Receiving Marquis Willis 821 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Prairie View A&M | W 49-30 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Anderson 224 · Rush Hines 184 · Rec Willis 102 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Bowling Green | W 20-13 124 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Anderson 206 · Rush Hines 250 · Rec Fleming 57 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @McNeese | W 27-24 | 3-0 | 0-0 | Pass Anderson 363 · Rush Hines 141 · Rec Willis 166 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Merrimack | W 45-20 | 4-0 | 0-0 | Pass Anderson 407 · Rush Green 74 · Rec Willis 87 |
| 4 | Bye week | |||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | Chicago State | W 56-21 | 5-0 | 0-0 | Pass Anderson 145 · Rush Brock 149 · Rec Willis 61 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Austin Peay | W 40-32 | 6-0 | 1-0 | Pass Anderson 347 · Rush Brock 106 · Rec Schmidt 121 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Central Arkansas | W 49-35 | 7-0 | 2-0 | Pass Anderson 279 · Rush Green 80 · Rec Schmidt 114 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @West Georgia | W 49-6 | 8-0 | 3-0 | Pass Anderson 296 · Rush Green 71 · Rec Schmidt 129 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Eastern Kentucky | W 28-24 | 9-0 | 4-0 | Pass Anderson 351 · Rush Hines 110 · Rec Willis 173 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Abilene Christian | 7 pm ET73% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @West Florida | 3 pm ET88% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @North Alabama | 4 pm ET80% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Tarleton State, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Eastern Kentucky | W 28-24 | — | — | — | +0.179 | 50.0% | 1.45 | One-score win |
| Oct 24 | @West Georgia | W 49-6 | — | — | — | +0.577 | 50.8% | 1.60 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | Central Arkansas | W 49-35 | — | — | — | +0.468 | 57.6% | 1.36 | Best success rate |
| Oct 10 | @Austin Peay | W 40-32 | — | — | — | +0.265 | 47.8% | 1.33 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | Chicago State | W 56-21 | — | — | — | +0.458 | 54.2% | 1.46 | Blowout win |
| Sep 19 | Merrimack | W 45-20 | — | — | — | +0.422 | 43.5% | 1.64 | Most explosive |
| Sep 12 | @McNeese | W 27-24 | — | — | — | +0.370 | 50.7% | 1.28 | One-score win |
| Sep 5 | @Bowling Green | W 20-13 | 464 | 1 | 25:07 | +0.147 | 39.0% | 1.40 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | Prairie View A&M | W 49-30 | — | — | — | +0.373 | 57.4% | 1.13 | |
| Season average (9 games) | 464 | 1.0 | +0.362 | 50.1% | 1.40 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
9-1 over the last 10, and won the last nine.
Range of outcomes · Tarleton State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
10 wins 9%; 11 wins 39%; 12 wins 52%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 9-0
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among UAC teams the same season
Tarleton State is the Texas program that climbed from Division II to FCS and won a UAC championship in its first eligible year.
Tarleton State is the Texas program that climbed from Division II to FCS and won a UAC championship in its first eligible year.
Range of outcomes · Tarleton State · 2026