The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Austin Peay 9%, Abilene Christian 15%, Central Arkansas 59%
Win out 1% · expect 0.8 of 3 more wins
Eastern Kentucky's chance to win each game left, from our model: Austin Peay 9%, Central Arkansas 59%, Abilene Christian 15%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Jordyn Potts 645 · Rushing Brady Hensley 771 · Receiving Elijah Caldwell 373 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | @Western Carolina | L 21-45 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Travers 305 · Rush Latham 41 · Rec Caldwell 102 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Jacksonville State | L 7-49 118 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Travers 90 · Rush Hensley 91 · Rec Newcomb 19 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Chattanooga | W 22-17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Travers 120 · Rush Hensley 119 · Rec Latham 23 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Dayton | L 14-17 | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass Potts 273 · Rush Hensley 93 · Rec Caldwell 67 |
| 4 | Bye week | |||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | North Alabama | L 16-20 | 1-4 | 0-1 | Pass Potts 143 · Rush Hensley 96 · Rec Caldwell 53 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | West Georgia | W 30-20 | 2-4 | 1-1 | Pass Potts 195 · Rush Hensley 138 · Rec West 62 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Tennessee Tech | L 20-49 | 2-5 | 1-1 | Pass Potts 34 · Rush Hooks 166 · Rec Hergott 17 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | West Florida | W 16-13 | 3-5 | 2-1 | Pass Kendall 163 · Rush Hensley 30 · Rec Caldwell 68 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Tarleton State | L 24-28 | 3-6 | 2-2 | Pass Burkett 248 · Rush Hensley 139 · Rec West 105 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Austin Peay | 4 pm ET9% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Central Arkansas | 2 pm ET59% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Abilene Christian | 2 pm ET15% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Eastern Kentucky, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Tarleton State | L 24-28 | — | — | — | −0.010 | 32.9% | 1.56 | Most explosive |
| Oct 24 | West Florida | W 16-13 | — | — | — | −0.131 | 23.4% | 1.28 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 17 | @Tennessee Tech | L 20-49 | — | — | — | −0.075 | 35.3% | 1.49 | Blowout loss |
| Oct 10 | West Georgia | W 30-20 | — | — | — | +0.185 | 51.3% | 0.86 | Best success rate |
| Oct 3 | North Alabama | L 16-20 | — | — | — | −0.325 | 30.1% | 1.20 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | Dayton | L 14-17 | — | — | — | +0.117 | 40.8% | 1.13 | One-score loss |
| Sep 12 | Chattanooga | W 22-17 | — | — | — | +0.038 | 43.3% | 1.17 | One-score win |
| Sep 5 | @Jacksonville State | L 7-49 | 285 | 2 | 33:27 | −0.141 | 37.9% | 1.19 | Defense's roughest night |
| Aug 29 | @Western Carolina | L 21-45 | — | — | — | +0.229 | 38.1% | 1.51 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (9 games) | 285 | 2.0 | −0.012 | 37.0% | 1.26 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Range of outcomes · Eastern Kentucky · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 32%; 4 wins 54%; 5 wins 13%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-6
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among UAC teams the same season
Eastern Kentucky is the Kentucky program that won a bowl game five years ago and is still trying to climb back to that moment.
Eastern Kentucky is the Kentucky program that won a bowl game five years ago and is still trying to climb back to that moment.
Range of outcomes · Eastern Kentucky · 2026