The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Tarleton State 12%, North Alabama 31%
Win out 3% · expect 1.2 of 3 more wins
West Florida's chance to win each game left, from our model: North Alabama 31%, Tarleton State 12%, West Georgia 77%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Ty'ray Davis 898 · Rushing Markel Townsend 424 · Receiving Tyshon Mansell 296 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | Southern Illinois | W 34-31 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Davis 109 · Rush Davis 88 · Rec Mozelle 40 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Central Arkansas | W 42-14 | 2-0 | 1-0 | Pass Davis 227 · Rush Davis 75 · Rec Armbruster 80 |
| 2 | Bye week | |||||
| 3 | Sep 19 | Austin Peay | L 16-38 | 2-1 | 1-1 | Pass Davis 118 · Rush Townsend 93 · Rec Mansell 48 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Southeast Missouri State | W 20-17 | 3-1 | 1-1 | Pass Leary 155 · Rush Townsend 31 · Rec Mansell 43 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Abilene Christian | L 7-35 | 3-2 | 1-2 | Pass Davis 208 · Rush Townsend 98 · Rec Mansell 67 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Northeastern State | T 0-0 | 3-2-1 | 1-2 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | West Alabama | W 37-3 | 4-2-1 | 1-2 | Pass Davis 99 · Rush Davis 126 · Rec Miller 48 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Eastern Kentucky | L 13-16 | 4-3-1 | 1-3 | Pass Davis 137 · Rush Davis 45 · Rec Mansell 80 |
| 9 | Bye week | |||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @North Alabama | 7 pm ET31% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Tarleton State | 3 pm ET12% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @West Georgia | 2 pm ET77% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for West Florida, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | @Eastern Kentucky | L 13-16 | — | — | — | −0.175 | 33.3% | 0.99 | One-score loss |
| Oct 17 | West Alabama | W 37-3 | — | — | — | +0.346 | 50.0% | 1.28 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | @Abilene Christian | L 7-35 | — | — | — | −0.093 | 29.4% | 1.50 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 26 | @Southeast Missouri State | W 20-17 | — | — | — | −0.248 | 25.4% | 1.34 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | Austin Peay | L 16-38 | — | — | — | −0.275 | 33.3% | 1.29 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @Central Arkansas | W 42-14 | — | — | — | +0.240 | 40.9% | 1.50 | Most explosive |
| Aug 27 | Southern Illinois | W 34-31 | — | — | — | +0.092 | 46.4% | 0.82 | One-score win |
| Season average (7 games) | — | — | −0.016 | 37.0% | 1.25 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-4 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Range of outcomes · West Florida · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 14%; 5 wins 55%; 6 wins 28%; 7 wins 3%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 7 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-3
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among UAC teams the same season
West Florida is 4-3 and plays at North Alabama next.
West Florida is 4-3 and plays at North Alabama next.
Range of outcomes · West Florida · 2026