The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Tarleton State 20%, West Florida 69%
Win out 12% · expect 1.8 of 3 more wins
North Alabama's chance to win each game left, from our model: West Florida 69%, West Georgia 87%, Tarleton State 20%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Destin Wade 1,765 · Rushing Roderick Taylor Jr. 346 · Receiving Xavier Johnson 880 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Samford (N) | W 22-10 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Wade 229 · Rush Fletcher 79 · Rec Johnson 129 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Arkansas | L 14-31 128 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Wade 113 · Rush Fletcher 24 · Rec Johnson 82 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @SE Louisiana | L 25-30 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Wade 265 · Rush Taylor Jr. 56 · Rec Johnson 175 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Alcorn State | W 38-20 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Wade 296 · Rush Johnson 75 · Rec Johnson 86 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Western Illinois | W 23-20 | 3-2 | 0-0 | Pass Wade 219 · Rush McMillian 27 · Rec Johnson 121 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Eastern Kentucky | W 20-16 | 4-2 | 1-0 | Pass Wade 77 · Rush Taylor Jr. 63 · Rec Reed 37 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | Abilene Christian | L 28-31 | 4-3 | 1-1 | Pass Wade 203 · Rush Wade 76 · Rec Reed 105 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Austin Peay | L 21-27 | 4-4 | 1-2 | Pass Wade 247 · Rush Wade 68 · Rec Johnson 135 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Central Arkansas | W 14-9 | 5-4 | 2-2 | Pass Wade 116 · Rush Taylor Jr. 58 · Rec Johnson 66 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | West Florida | 7 pm ET69% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @West Georgia | 2 pm ET87% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Tarleton State | 4 pm ET20% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for North Alabama, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Central Arkansas | W 14-9 | — | — | — | −0.199 | 37.3% | 0.96 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | Austin Peay | L 21-27 | — | — | — | +0.138 | 40.6% | 1.33 | One-score loss |
| Oct 17 | Abilene Christian | L 28-31 | — | — | — | +0.299 | 46.2% | 1.27 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | @Eastern Kentucky | W 20-16 | — | — | — | +0.042 | 32.2% | 1.10 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 26 | Western Illinois | W 23-20 | — | — | — | −0.146 | 35.9% | 0.98 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | Alcorn State | W 38-20 | — | — | — | +0.043 | 36.6% | 1.65 | Most explosive |
| Sep 12 | @SE Louisiana | L 25-30 | — | — | — | +0.241 | 56.3% | 0.95 | Best success rate |
| Sep 5 | @Arkansas | L 14-31 | 153 | 1 | 18:35 | −0.075 | 26.7% | 1.05 | |
| Aug 29 | Samford | W 22-10 | — | — | — | +0.163 | 36.9% | 1.40 | |
| Season average (9 games) | 153 | 1.0 | +0.056 | 38.7% | 1.19 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Range of outcomes · North Alabama · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 3%; 6 wins 30%; 7 wins 55%; 8 wins 12%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-4
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among UAC teams the same season
North Alabama is the Alabama program that climbed to Division I in 2022 and is learning the difference between reclassification and relevance.
North Alabama is the Alabama program that climbed to Division I in 2022 and is learning the difference between reclassification and relevance.
Range of outcomes · North Alabama · 2026