The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Austin Peay 12%, Eastern Kentucky 41%
Win out 4% · expect 1.3 of 3 more wins
Central Arkansas's chance to win each game left, from our model: West Georgia 78%, Eastern Kentucky 41%, Austin Peay 12%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Donovyn Omolo 1,540 · Rushing Jalen Washington 771 · Receiving Dakarai Anderson 469 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | @UT Martin | W 36-24 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Omolo 243 · Rush Omolo 118 · Rec Lee 70 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | West Florida | L 14-42 | 1-1 | 0-1 | Pass Omolo 197 · Rush Omolo 125 · Rec Pollard 62 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Central Oklahoma | W 59-20 | 2-1 | 0-1 | Pass Omolo 133 · Rush Washington 202 · Rec Pollard 79 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Southeast Missouri State | L 9-27 | 2-2 | 0-1 | Pass Omolo 98 · Rush Omolo 85 · Rec Anderson 68 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Florida State | L 7-34 121 | 2-3 | 0-1 | Pass Omolo 138 · Rush Washington 71 · Rec Pollard 41 |
| 5 | Bye week | |||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Abilene Christian | L 14-20 | 2-4 | 0-2 | Pass Omolo 83 · Rush Washington 105 · Rec Durham 32 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Tarleton State | L 35-49 | 2-5 | 0-3 | Pass Omolo 310 · Rush Washington 78 · Rec Lee 113 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | UT Rio Grande Valley | L 27-30 | 2-6 | 0-3 | Pass Omolo 179 · Rush Washington 79 · Rec Anderson 96 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | North Alabama | L 9-14 | 2-7 | 0-4 | Pass Omolo 159 · Rush Washington 140 · Rec Anderson 71 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | West Georgia | 5 pm ET78% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Eastern Kentucky | 2 pm ET41% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Austin Peay | 5 pm ET12% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Central Arkansas, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | North Alabama | L 9-14 | — | — | — | −0.016 | 36.8% | 1.13 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 24 | UT Rio Grande Valley | L 27-30 | — | — | — | +0.165 | 50.0% | 1.00 | One-score loss |
| Oct 17 | @Tarleton State | L 35-49 | — | — | — | +0.310 | 52.6% | 1.19 | Best success rate |
| Oct 10 | @Abilene Christian | L 14-20 | — | — | — | +0.276 | 45.7% | 1.30 | One-score loss |
| Sep 26 | @Florida State | L 7-34 | 248 | 0 | 39:12 | −0.019 | 36.0% | 1.08 | |
| Sep 19 | @Southeast Missouri State | L 9-27 | — | — | — | −0.156 | 33.3% | 1.31 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Central Oklahoma | W 59-20 | — | — | — | +0.434 | 49.2% | 1.49 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | West Florida | L 14-42 | — | — | — | +0.027 | 46.4% | 1.18 | Blowout loss |
| Aug 27 | @UT Martin | W 36-24 | — | — | — | +0.277 | 47.2% | 1.47 | |
| Season average (9 games) | 248 | 0.0 | +0.144 | 44.1% | 1.24 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
2-8 over the last 10, and lost the last six.
Range of outcomes · Central Arkansas · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 11%; 3 wins 50%; 4 wins 35%; 5 wins 4%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-7
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among UAC teams the same season
Central Arkansas is 2-7 and hosts West Georgia next.
Central Arkansas is 2-7 and hosts West Georgia next.
Range of outcomes · Central Arkansas · 2026