Central Arkansas

2-7

Player stats

Player stats · 2026 season

No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.

Biggest plays from Central Arkansas’s games

Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Central Arkansas’s games this season, whoever made them.

  1. Q1, 14:16 · Florida State tiedAshton Daniels finds Duce Robinson for a 29-yard touchdownCentral Arkansas at Florida State, week 4Q1, 14:16 · Florida State 7, Central Arkansas 0Florida State opened the scoringFlorida State opened the scoringA.Daniels pass complete deep middle to D.Robinson caught at UCA07, for 29 yards to the UCA00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick goodWatch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q1, 6:56 · Florida State up 7Ousmane Kromah runs 6 yards for a touchdownCentral Arkansas at Florida State, week 4Q1, 6:56 · Florida State 14, Central Arkansas 014-0score after the play14-0score after the playO.Kromah rush left for 6 yards gain to the UCA00 touchdown, kick goodWatch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q1, 5:58 · Central Arkansas down 14Rylan Kennedy sacks Donovyn Omolo for an 8-yard lossCentral Arkansas at Florida State, week 4Q1, 5:58 · Central Arkansas 0, Florida State 140-14score after the play0-14score after the playD.Omolo sacked for loss of 8 yards to the UCA11 (R.Kennedy)Watch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 0:20 · Florida State up 17Ashtyn Williams intercepts Ashton DanielsCentral Arkansas at Florida State, week 4Q2, 0:20 · Florida State 24, Central Arkansas 724-7score after the play24-7score after the playA.Daniels pass intercepted by A.Williams at UCA24, End Of PlayWatch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q3, 5:50 · Florida State up 17Ashton Daniels finds Jayvan Boggs for a 34-yard touchdownCentral Arkansas at Florida State, week 4Q3, 5:50 · Florida State 31, Central Arkansas 7Jayvan Boggs's first 100-yard receiving game of 2026Jayvan Boggs's first 100-yard receiving game of 2026A.Daniels pass complete deep left to J.Boggs caught at UCA01, for 34 yards to the UCA00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick goodWatch from this playESPN College Football

How scary each game got

Central Arkansas lost to UT Rio Grande Valley after being 83% to win; the closest win was at UT Martin, down to 20%

50%W1L1W2L3L4L6L7L8L9

Tap a game for its score and win chances.

Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Central Arkansas during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.

Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Central Arkansas is worth +2.8 points more at home than on the road.

Bottom third of FBS, 24th percentile of 133 programs

40% at home, 21% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (2-3 home, 4-15 away). Interval ±6.8.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest
95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest
The stadium and how the home edge is measured

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Central Arkansas has beaten the number by −6.1 more at home than away over 53 games. That is inside the ±9.2 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Estes Stadium seats 10,000 and has averaged 63% full (6,344, 14 games reported). Visitors cover a median 351 miles to get here (2018-present).

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across 42 of 44 home games since 2018. No national trip rank shown: the ranked field is FBS venues only and leaves out the service academies and venues with too few measured games.

Home2-3Away4-15Edge+2.8 ±6.8Visitor trip351 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

How much of Central Arkansas’s number is the schedule?

Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.14; adjusted for opponent strength, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.37 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.

0.430.20-0.03Wk 1Wk 6Wk 10Raw EPA/playOpponent-adjusted
0.430.20-0.03Wk 1Wk 6Wk 10RawAdjusted
Source CFB Zeitgeist · season-to-date, opponent-adjusted model
Havoc & trenchesDefense havoc rate 0.157, 49th percentile

Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.

Havoc rate (D) 0.157
49th
Havoc allowed (O) 0.167
29th
Front-seven havoc (D) 0.088
35th
Secondary havoc (D) 0.070
74th
Stuff rate (D) 0.183
38th
Stuff rate allowed (O) 0.159
76th
Line yards (O) 3.277
85th
Line yards allowed (D) 3.040
26th
Standard-downs success (O) 0.473
53rd
Standard-downs success allowed (D) 0.504
11th
Passing-downs success (O) 0.357
80th
Passing-downs success allowed (D) 0.345
15th
Screened 12 claims, 12 survived · 2026 season, FBS only, min. 3 games with data this season
CFB Zeitgeist “Go Bears.”
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site