The rest of the season
One real test left: Charleston Southern 46%
Win out 30% · expect 2.1 of 3 more wins
Southeast Missouri State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Tennessee State 81%, Charleston Southern 46%, UT Martin 79%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Braylen Ragland 1,733 · Rushing Khyair Spain 596 · Receiving John Anthony 437 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | @Indiana State | W 23-21 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Ragland 274 · Rush Spain 66 · Rec Anthony 88 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Iowa State | L 10-38 115 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Ragland 142 · Rush Spain 72 · Rec Anthony 40 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Southern Illinois | L 20-34 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Ragland 316 · Rush Spain 38 · Rec Anthony 91 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Central Arkansas | W 27-9 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Ragland 170 · Rush Brown 81 · Rec Bryant 42 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | West Florida | L 17-20 | 2-3 | 0-0 | Pass Ragland 162 · Rush Spain 77 · Rec Purnell 80 |
| 5 | Bye week | |||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Lindenwood | W 38-27 | 3-3 | 1-0 | Pass Ragland 208 · Rush Spain 85 · Rec Anthony 82 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Western Illinois | W 40-30 | 4-3 | 2-0 | Pass Ragland 194 · Rush Spain 111 · Rec Leonard 63 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Eastern Illinois | W 20-10 | 5-3 | 3-0 | Pass Ragland 139 · Rush Reed Jr. 109 · Rec Bryant 35 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Gardner-Webb | L 10-34 | 5-4 | 3-1 | Pass Ragland 128 · Rush Reed Jr. 36 · Rec Bryant 46 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Tennessee State | 3:30 pm ET81% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Charleston Southern | 2 pm ET46% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | UT Martin | 2 pm ET79% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Southeast Missouri State, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Gardner-Webb | L 10-34 | — | — | — | −0.217 | 27.4% | 0.96 | |
| Oct 24 | @Eastern Illinois | W 20-10 | — | — | — | −0.008 | 34.7% | 1.15 | |
| Oct 17 | Western Illinois | W 40-30 | — | — | — | +0.229 | 44.2% | 1.24 | |
| Oct 10 | @Lindenwood | W 38-27 | — | — | — | +0.335 | 60.8% | 0.91 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | West Florida | L 17-20 | — | — | — | −0.219 | 32.9% | 1.02 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | Central Arkansas | W 27-9 | — | — | — | +0.029 | 43.1% | 0.91 | |
| Sep 12 | @Southern Illinois | L 20-34 | — | — | — | +0.039 | 30.0% | 2.01 | Most explosive |
| Sep 5 | @Iowa State | L 10-38 | 209 | 3 | 36:52 | −0.060 | 27.5% | 1.39 | Defense's roughest night |
| Aug 29 | @Indiana State | W 23-21 | — | — | — | +0.198 | 34.8% | 1.62 | One-score win |
| Season average (9 games) | 209 | 3.0 | +0.036 | 37.3% | 1.25 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Range of outcomes · Southeast Missouri State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 2%; 6 wins 19%; 7 wins 49%; 8 wins 30%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-4
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among OVC teams the same season
Southeast Missouri State is the Redhawks program in the War for the Wheel tradition, a historic rival to Southern Illinois building FCS playoff contention under Tom Matukewicz.
Southeast Missouri State is the Redhawks program in the War for the Wheel tradition, a historic rival to Southern Illinois building FCS playoff contention under Tom Matukewicz.
Range of outcomes · Southeast Missouri State · 2026