The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Western Illinois 40%, Charleston Southern 50%
Win out 15% · expect 1.7 of 3 more wins
Eastern Illinois's chance to win each game left, from our model: Western Illinois 40%, Tennessee State 77%, Charleston Southern 50%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Cole Lacrue 1,347 · Rushing Charles Kellom 580 · Receiving Samuel Gonzalez 273 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | @Murray State | W 28-14 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass LaCrue 101 · Rush Kellom 171 · Rec Gonzalez 50 |
| 1 | Sep 3 | @Minnesota | L 7-59 114 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass LaCrue 51 · Rush LaCrue 22 · Rec Buggs 38 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Indiana State | L 35-42 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass LaCrue 267 · Rush Kellom 106 · Rec Gonzalez 78 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Illinois State | L 13-49 | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass LaCrue 150 · Rush Buggs 23 · Rec Reeves 44 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @South Dakota State | L 7-42 | 1-4 | 0-0 | Pass LaCrue 85 · Rush Kellom 28 · Rec Gonzalez 37 |
| 5 | Bye week | |||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Gardner-Webb | W 21-7 | 2-4 | 1-0 | Pass LaCrue 11 · Rush Kellom 150 · Rec Whitlock 11 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Lindenwood | L 13-20 | 2-5 | 1-1 | Pass LaCrue 203 · Rush LaCrue 26 · Rec Reeves 79 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Southeast Missouri State | L 10-20 | 2-6 | 1-2 | Pass LaCrue 210 · Rush Kellom 19 · Rec Evans 83 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @UT Martin | W 45-16 | 3-6 | 2-2 | Pass LaCrue 269 · Rush LaCrue 112 · Rec Fleming 75 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Western Illinois | 3 pm ET40% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Tennessee State | 3:30 pm ET77% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Charleston Southern | 1 pm ET50% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Eastern Illinois, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @UT Martin | W 45-16 | — | — | — | +0.532 | 52.3% | 1.60 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | Southeast Missouri State | L 10-20 | — | — | — | −0.064 | 27.8% | 1.53 | |
| Oct 17 | Lindenwood | L 13-20 | — | — | — | −0.216 | 33.3% | 1.38 | One-score loss |
| Oct 10 | @Gardner-Webb | W 21-7 | — | — | — | −0.152 | 25.0% | 0.88 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 26 | @South Dakota State | L 7-42 | — | — | — | −0.113 | 24.1% | 1.24 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 19 | @Illinois State | L 13-49 | — | — | — | −0.081 | 34.6% | 1.35 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 12 | Indiana State | L 35-42 | — | — | — | +0.274 | 48.6% | 1.57 | One-score loss |
| Sep 3 | @Minnesota | L 7-59 | 110 | 0 | 23:39 | −0.384 | 10.9% | 1.66 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Aug 27 | @Murray State | W 28-14 | — | — | — | +0.183 | 39.4% | 1.29 | |
| Season average (9 games) | 110 | 0.0 | −0.002 | 32.9% | 1.39 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Range of outcomes · Eastern Illinois · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 7%; 4 wins 35%; 5 wins 43%; 6 wins 15%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-6
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among OVC teams the same season
Eastern Illinois is the historic Ohio Valley Panther program that fell from I-AA relevance into a decade of rebuilding, and whose fanbase is waiting for the resurgence.
Eastern Illinois is the historic Ohio Valley Panther program that fell from I-AA relevance into a decade of rebuilding, and whose fanbase is waiting for the resurgence.
Range of outcomes · Eastern Illinois · 2026