The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Southeast Missouri State 21%, Charleston Southern 22%, Lindenwood 25%
Win out 1% · expect 0.7 of 3 more wins
UT Martin's chance to win each game left, from our model: Charleston Southern 22%, Lindenwood 25%, Southeast Missouri State 21%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Tate Surber 1,259 · Rushing Chris Franklin 530 · Receiving Deuce Oliver 341 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | Central Arkansas | L 24-36 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Calvez 147 · Rush Ansley 61 · Rec Washington 53 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | Chicago State | W 42-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Surber 222 · Rush Ansley 106 · Rec Oliver 73 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @West Virginia | L 7-52 133 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Surber 137 · Rush Franklin 85 · Rec Costner 36 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Memphis | L 21-45 132 | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass Surber 177 · Rush Peete 38 · Rec Oliver 69 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Austin Peay | L 12-35 | 1-4 | 0-0 | Pass Surber 175 · Rush Franklin 63 · Rec Sherrard 85 |
| 5 | Bye week | |||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Tennessee State | W 42-28 | 2-4 | 1-0 | Pass Surber 114 · Rush Franklin 82 · Rec Washington 53 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Gardner-Webb | W 17-6 | 3-4 | 2-0 | Pass Surber 92 · Rush Peete 73 · Rec Costner 33 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Western Illinois | L 24-55 | 3-5 | 2-1 | Pass Surber 266 · Rush Franklin 57 · Rec Oliver 119 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Eastern Illinois | L 16-45 | 3-6 | 2-2 | Pass Surber 76 · Rush Peete 99 · Rec Oliver 34 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Charleston Southern | 2 pm ET22% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Lindenwood | 3 pm ET25% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Southeast Missouri State | 2 pm ET21% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for UT Martin, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Eastern Illinois | L 16-45 | — | — | — | +0.053 | 42.6% | 1.23 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 24 | @Western Illinois | L 24-55 | — | — | — | −0.197 | 38.0% | 1.29 | Blowout loss |
| Oct 17 | Gardner-Webb | W 17-6 | — | — | — | −0.189 | 32.5% | 0.90 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 10 | @Tennessee State | W 42-28 | — | — | — | +0.013 | 32.3% | 1.41 | |
| Sep 26 | @Austin Peay | L 12-35 | — | — | — | −0.078 | 30.2% | 1.22 | |
| Sep 19 | @Memphis | L 21-45 | 291 | 0 | 28:46 | +0.130 | 34.5% | 1.46 | Most explosive |
| Sep 12 | @West Virginia | L 7-52 | 318 | 2 | 34:44 | −0.218 | 39.7% | 1.02 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Chicago State | W 42-7 | — | — | — | +0.365 | 53.7% | 1.19 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 27 | Central Arkansas | L 24-36 | — | — | — | +0.219 | 35.6% | 1.26 | |
| Season average (9 games) | 304 | 1.0 | +0.011 | 37.7% | 1.22 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
Range of outcomes · UT Martin · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 46%; 4 wins 41%; 5 wins 12%; 6 wins 1%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-6
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among OVC teams the same season
UT Martin is 3-6 and plays at Charleston Southern next.
UT Martin is 3-6 and plays at Charleston Southern next.
Range of outcomes · UT Martin · 2026