The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Lindenwood 49%, Gardner-Webb 51%, Eastern Illinois 60%
Win out 15% · expect 1.6 of 3 more wins
Western Illinois's chance to win each game left, from our model: Eastern Illinois 60%, Gardner-Webb 51%, Lindenwood 49%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Kennedy McGill 1,810 · Rushing Kennedy McGill 1,185 · Receiving Elijah Jackson-Anderson 328 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | Northwestern (IA) | W 65-14 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass McGill 194 · Rush McGill 98 · Rec Anaya 88 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | Illinois State | L 10-41 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Carswell 140 · Rush Robinson 22 · Rec Anaya 78 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Wisconsin | L 9-36 115 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass McGill 139 · Rush McGill 88 · Rec Kania 58 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Morehead State | W 59-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass McGill 264 · Rush McGill 81 · Rec Zolnosky 60 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @North Alabama | L 20-23 | 2-3 | 0-0 | Pass McGill 266 · Rush Jackson-Anderson 34 · Rec Jackson-Anderson 117 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Tennessee State | W 28-21 | 3-3 | 1-0 | Pass McGill 241 · Rush McGill 188 · Rec Jackson-Anderson 80 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Southeast Missouri State | L 30-40 | 3-4 | 1-1 | Pass McGill 264 · Rush McGill 183 · Rec Coleman 95 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | UT Martin | W 55-24 | 4-4 | 2-1 | Pass McGill 139 · Rush McGill 210 · Rec Hiraldo 92 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Charleston Southern | W 42-35 | 5-4 | 3-1 | Pass McGill 180 · Rush McGill 295 · Rec Coleman 111 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Eastern Illinois | 3 pm ET60% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Gardner-Webb | 2 pm ET51% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Lindenwood | 3 pm ET49% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Western Illinois, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Charleston Southern | W 42-35 | — | — | — | −0.081 | 36.5% | 1.84 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | UT Martin | W 55-24 | — | — | — | +0.392 | 58.5% | 1.27 | Blowout win |
| Oct 17 | @Southeast Missouri State | L 30-40 | — | — | — | +0.146 | 47.2% | 1.32 | |
| Oct 3 | Tennessee State | W 28-21 | — | — | — | +0.121 | 37.8% | 1.28 | One-score win |
| Sep 26 | @North Alabama | L 20-23 | — | — | — | −0.019 | 30.3% | 1.63 | One-score loss |
| Sep 19 | Morehead State | W 59-2 | — | — | — | +0.504 | 59.7% | 1.22 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Wisconsin | L 9-36 | 302 | 0 | 34:57 | −0.063 | 37.5% | 0.86 | |
| Sep 5 | Illinois State | L 10-41 | — | — | — | +0.038 | 35.4% | 1.12 | Defense's roughest night |
| Aug 27 | Northwestern (IA) | W 65-14 | — | — | — | +0.420 | 57.9% | 1.22 | Blowout win |
| Season average (9 games) | 302 | 0.0 | +0.162 | 44.5% | 1.31 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last two.
Range of outcomes · Western Illinois · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 10%; 6 wins 35%; 7 wins 40%; 8 wins 15%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-4
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among OVC teams the same season
Western Illinois is the historic Leatherneck program that left the Missouri Valley after two decades and joined the Big South-OVC, rebuilding its identity in a new conference.
Western Illinois is the historic Leatherneck program that left the Missouri Valley after two decades and joined the Big South-OVC, rebuilding its identity in a new conference.
Range of outcomes · Western Illinois · 2026