The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Butler 2%, Marist 14%, Presbyterian 31%
Win out <1% · expect 0.5 of 3 more wins
Morehead State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Marist 14%, Presbyterian 31%, Butler 2%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Bryce Patterson 1,353 · Rushing Blake Fisher 302 · Receiving Anthony Ice 829 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | Ohio Dominican | L 40-42 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Parsons 463 · Rush Cunningham 89 · Rec Ice 156 |
| 1 | Sep 3 | Kentucky Christian | W 75-24 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Parsons 304 · Rush Parsons 36 · Rec Ice 163 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Austin Peay | L 7-63 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Parsons 121 · Rush Patterson 28 · Rec Purcell 66 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Western Illinois | L 2-59 | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass Patterson 24 · Rush Fisher 36 · Rec Ice 14 |
| 4 | Bye week | |||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | Valparaiso | L 3-37 | 1-4 | 0-1 | Pass Parsons 83 · Rush Patterson 56 · Rec Dinger 52 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Dayton | L 28-56 | 1-5 | 0-2 | Pass Patterson 350 · Rush Lanier 13 · Rec Dinger 159 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Davidson | L 31-34 | 1-6 | 0-3 | Pass Patterson 274 · Rush Patterson 52 · Rec Ice 101 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Stetson | W 38-31 | 2-6 | 1-3 | Pass Patterson 234 · Rush Fisher 98 · Rec Ice 95 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Drake | L 35-45 | 2-7 | 1-4 | Pass Patterson 371 · Rush Fisher 94 · Rec Ice 175 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Marist | 12 pm ET14% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Presbyterian | 12 pm ET31% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Butler | 1 pm ET2% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Morehead State, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Drake | L 35-45 | — | — | — | +0.167 | 47.0% | 1.49 | |
| Oct 24 | Stetson | W 38-31 | — | — | — | +0.223 | 45.7% | 1.33 | One-score win |
| Oct 17 | @Davidson | L 31-34 | — | — | — | +0.177 | 50.0% | 1.11 | One-score loss |
| Oct 10 | @Dayton | L 28-56 | — | — | — | +0.066 | 39.4% | 1.63 | Blowout loss |
| Oct 3 | Valparaiso | L 3-37 | — | — | — | −0.472 | 32.1% | 1.12 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 19 | @Western Illinois | L 2-59 | — | — | — | −0.494 | 18.2% | 0.81 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Austin Peay | L 7-63 | — | — | — | −0.100 | 26.6% | 1.34 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 3 | Kentucky Christian | W 75-24 | — | — | — | +0.463 | 52.2% | 1.77 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 27 | Ohio Dominican | L 40-42 | — | — | — | −0.001 | 46.7% | 1.13 | One-score loss |
| Season average (9 games) | — | — | +0.003 | 39.8% | 1.30 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
2-8 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Range of outcomes · Morehead State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 58%; 3 wins 37%; 4 wins 5%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-7
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Pioneer teams the same season
Morehead State is 2-7 and plays at Marist next.
Morehead State is 2-7 and plays at Marist next.
Range of outcomes · Morehead State · 2026