The rest of the season
One real test left: St. Thomas (MN) 61%
Win out 47% · expect 2.4 of 3 more wins
Butler's chance to win each game left, from our model: St. Thomas (MN) 61%, Marist 80%, Morehead State 98%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Gabe Passini 1,166 · Rushing Desmin Jackson 540 · Receiving Nick Munson 424 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Georgetown College Kentucky | W 27-23 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Montana State | L 24-51 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Passini 140 · Rush Dellumo 23 · Rec Yardley 55 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Franklin | W 52-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Passini 130 · Rush Dellumo 79 · Rec Munson 41 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Chicago State | W 47-20 | 3-1 | 0-0 | Pass Passini 109 · Rush Jackson 164 · Rec Munson 42 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Valparaiso | W 33-28 | 4-1 | 1-0 | Pass Passini 155 · Rush Passini 104 · Rec Munson 114 |
| 5 | Bye week | |||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | San Diego | W 41-10 | 5-1 | 2-0 | Pass Passini 217 · Rush Manna 151 · Rec Nix 113 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Dayton | L 9-19 | 5-2 | 2-1 | Pass Passini 152 · Rush Jackson 16 · Rec Munson 80 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Drake | W 33-21 | 6-2 | 3-1 | Pass Passini 118 · Rush Jackson 91 · Rec Sullivan 44 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Presbyterian | W 27-10 | 7-2 | 4-1 | Pass Passini 145 · Rush Passini 162 · Rec Munson 50 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | St. Thomas (MN) | 1 pm ET61% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Marist | 12 pm ET80% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Morehead State | 1 pm ET98% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Butler, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Presbyterian | W 27-10 | — | — | — | +0.218 | 45.2% | 1.16 | |
| Oct 24 | @Drake | W 33-21 | — | — | — | +0.256 | 45.7% | 1.19 | |
| Oct 17 | Dayton | L 9-19 | — | — | — | −0.304 | 29.2% | 1.44 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | San Diego | W 41-10 | — | — | — | +0.373 | 37.0% | 1.90 | Most explosive |
| Sep 26 | @Valparaiso | W 33-28 | — | — | — | +0.238 | 41.7% | 1.44 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | Chicago State | W 47-20 | — | — | — | +0.186 | 36.9% | 1.50 | |
| Sep 12 | Franklin | W 52-0 | — | — | — | +0.424 | 69.3% | 0.85 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @Montana State | L 24-51 | — | — | — | +0.107 | 39.7% | 1.11 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (8 games) | — | — | +0.187 | 43.1% | 1.32 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
8-2 over the last 10, and won the last two.
Range of outcomes · Butler · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
8 wins 9%; 9 wins 44%; 10 wins 47%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-2
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Pioneer teams the same season
Butler is the Indianapolis school that competes for non-scholarship excellence every year — the Hoosier Helmet Trophy rival and the example that football works best without the noise.
Butler is the Indianapolis school that competes for non-scholarship excellence every year — the Hoosier Helmet Trophy rival and the example that football works best without the noise.
Range of outcomes · Butler · 2026