The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Dayton 18%, St. Thomas (MN) 28%
Win out 4% · expect 1.3 of 3 more wins
Valparaiso's chance to win each game left, from our model: Dayton 18%, Stetson 84%, St. Thomas (MN) 28%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Rowan Keefe 1,380 · Rushing Cedric Benning Iii 203 · Receiving Chris Gundy 324 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Lawrence Tech | W 59-13 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Murray State | L 18-27 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Keefe 249 · Rush Keefe 29 · Rec Gundy 107 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Indiana State | L 16-39 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Keefe 162 · Rush Allen 19 · Rec O'Keeffe 56 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Butler | L 28-33 | 1-3 | 0-1 | Pass Keefe 187 · Rush Rumoro 100 · Rec Gundy 59 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Morehead State | W 37-3 | 2-3 | 1-1 | Pass Keefe 174 · Rush Benning Iii 84 · Rec O'Keeffe 90 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Drake | W 21-13 | 3-3 | 2-1 | Pass Keefe 155 · Rush Rumoro 50 · Rec White 54 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @San Diego | L 13-38 | 3-4 | 2-2 | Pass Keefe 178 · Rush Keefe 21 · Rec Yeats 70 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Presbyterian | W 24-7 | 4-4 | 3-2 | Pass Keefe 275 · Rush Tye 39 · Rec Allen 69 |
| 9 | Bye week | |||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Dayton | 12 pm ET18% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Stetson | 1 pm ET84% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | St. Thomas (MN) | 2 pm ET28% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Valparaiso, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | Presbyterian | W 24-7 | — | — | — | −0.018 | 44.4% | 0.99 | |
| Oct 17 | @San Diego | L 13-38 | — | — | — | −0.155 | 41.2% | 1.03 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | Drake | W 21-13 | — | — | — | −0.051 | 29.2% | 1.48 | Most explosive |
| Oct 3 | @Morehead State | W 37-3 | — | — | — | +0.185 | 42.7% | 0.97 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 26 | Butler | L 28-33 | — | — | — | +0.111 | 41.3% | 1.14 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 19 | @Indiana State | L 16-39 | — | — | — | −0.084 | 29.2% | 1.27 | |
| Sep 12 | @Murray State | L 18-27 | — | — | — | −0.008 | 36.2% | 1.18 | |
| Aug 29 | Lawrence Tech | W 59-13 | — | — | — | +0.246 | 47.5% | 1.12 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | — | — | +0.028 | 39.0% | 1.15 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Range of outcomes · Valparaiso · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 9%; 5 wins 56%; 6 wins 31%; 7 wins 4%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Pioneer teams the same season
Valparaiso is the Indiana program that competed for FCS playoff bids in the 2000s and 2010s but went 2–10 in 2025 — now rebuilding under new coach Andy Waddle with the Hoosier Helmet Trophy rivalry against Butler anchoring the annual conversation.
Valparaiso is the Indiana program that competed for FCS playoff bids in the 2000s and 2010s but went 2–10 in 2025 — now rebuilding under new coach Andy Waddle with the Hoosier Helmet Trophy rivalry against Butler anchoring the annual conversation.
Range of outcomes · Valparaiso · 2026