The rest of the season
Three real tests left: San Diego 10%, Valparaiso 16%, Davidson 50%
Win out 1% · expect 0.8 of 3 more wins
Stetson's chance to win each game left, from our model: Davidson 50%, Valparaiso 16%, San Diego 10%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Tom von Grote 2,434 · Rushing Troy Flowers 419 · Receiving Wyatt Rogers 613 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | @South Dakota State | L 7-70 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Grote 95 · Rush Stephenson 69 · Rec Townsend 44 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | Webber International | W 45-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Grote 318 · Rush Stephenson 113 · Rec Rogers 123 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Bethune-Cookman | L 18-43 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Grote 192 · Rush Flowers 72 · Rec Farco 95 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @UC Davis | L 7-45 | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass Grote 219 · Rush Grote 42 · Rec Benzija 70 |
| 4 | Bye week | |||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | Marist | L 14-28 | 1-4 | 0-1 | Pass Grote 273 · Rush Howell 9 · Rec Rogers 103 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | @St. Thomas (MN) | L 21-64 | 1-5 | 0-2 | Pass Grote 296 · Rush Stephenson 74 · Rec Rogers 94 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Presbyterian | L 43-47 | 1-6 | 0-3 | Pass Grote 345 · Rush Flowers 63 · Rec Flowers 120 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Morehead State | L 31-38 | 1-7 | 0-4 | Pass Grote 350 · Rush Flowers 52 · Rec Farco 102 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Dayton | L 34-44 | 1-8 | 0-5 | Pass Grote 346 · Rush Stephenson 83 · Rec Jones 95 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Davidson | 1 pm ET50% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Valparaiso | 1 pm ET16% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @San Diego | 8 pm ET10% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Stetson, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Dayton | L 34-44 | — | — | — | +0.326 | 46.6% | 1.44 | |
| Oct 24 | @Morehead State | L 31-38 | — | — | — | +0.158 | 37.1% | 1.67 | One-score loss |
| Oct 17 | Presbyterian | L 43-47 | — | — | — | +0.457 | 45.6% | 1.67 | One-score loss |
| Oct 10 | @St. Thomas (MN) | L 21-64 | — | — | — | −0.070 | 33.7% | 1.67 | Blowout loss |
| Oct 3 | Marist | L 14-28 | — | — | — | −0.056 | 35.7% | 1.33 | |
| Sep 19 | @UC Davis | L 7-45 | — | — | — | −0.177 | 31.9% | 1.16 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 12 | @Bethune-Cookman | L 18-43 | — | — | — | −0.231 | 32.3% | 1.27 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Webber International | W 45-10 | — | — | — | +0.467 | 46.7% | 1.83 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | @South Dakota State | L 7-70 | — | — | — | −0.182 | 35.7% | 0.83 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (9 games) | — | — | +0.077 | 38.4% | 1.43 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
1-9 over the last 10, and lost the last seven.
Range of outcomes · Stetson · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
1 wins 38%; 2 wins 49%; 3 wins 12%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 1-8
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Pioneer teams the same season
Stetson is the Florida pioneer — the oldest continuous college football in the state (first games 1894) — that dropped the sport in 1956 and revived it in 2013, now rebuilding to find the program it once was.
Stetson is the Florida pioneer, the oldest continuous college football in the state (first games 1894), that dropped the sport in 1956 and revived it in 2013, now rebuilding to find the program it once was.
Range of outcomes · Stetson · 2026