Presbyterian beats Stetson 47-43

Team pages: Presbyterian · Stetson

Presbyterian4-347
Stetson1-643Final
Sat, Oct 17 · Spec Martin Municipal Stadium, DeLand, Fla. · Crowd 2,253YouTube

Presbyterian beat Stetson 47-43.

We had Presbyterian favored. It won.

Next: Presbyterian at Valparaiso, Sat Oct 24 · 1:00 PM ET

Next: Stetson at Morehead State, Sat Oct 24 · 2:00 PM ET

How it swung

The turning point: Burleson 2-yd TD run, Presbyterian goes ahead 47-43 (Q4, 0:19). Presbyterian went from 34% to 96% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Presbyterian a 75% chance, and the closing betting line (Presbyterian was a 7.5-point favorite) put it at 73%.

Down to 19% in the fourth quarter, Presbyterian came back to win.

Up to 81% in the fourth quarter, then Stetson lost it.

FinalPresbyterian 47-43 StetsonPresbyterian wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q460% at halfPresbyterianStetsonWon47-431−31Scores
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q460% at halfPresbyterianStetsonWon47-4345Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q440% at halfStetsonPresbyterianLost43-471+32Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q440% at halfStetsonPresbyterianLost43-4745Scores

The five plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 10:08Von Grote 13-yd TD pass to Jones, cuts it to 27-22Presbyterian 92% → 61% (−31)
  2. 2Q4 4:29T.von Grote pass complete short left to T.Flowers for 75 yards to the end zone touchdownPresbyterian 80% → 38% (−42)
  3. 3Q4 2:18Burleson 2-yd TD run, Presbyterian goes ahead 40-36Presbyterian 42% → 70% (+28)
  4. 4Q4 0:51Von Grote 14-yd TD pass to Farco, Stetson goes ahead 43-40Presbyterian 54% → 19% (−35)
  5. 5Q4 0:19Burleson 2-yd TD run, Presbyterian goes ahead 47-43Presbyterian 34% → 96% (+62)

The five plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 10:08Von Grote 13-yd TD pass to Jones, cuts it to 27-22Stetson 8% → 40% (+32)
  2. 2Q4 4:29T.von Grote pass complete short left to T.Flowers for 75 yards to the end zone touchdownStetson 20% → 62% (+42)
  3. 3Q4 2:18Burleson 2-yd TD run, Presbyterian goes ahead 40-36Stetson 58% → 30% (−28)
  4. 4Q4 0:51Von Grote 14-yd TD pass to Farco, Stetson goes ahead 43-40Stetson 46% → 81% (+35)
  5. 5Q4 0:19Burleson 2-yd TD run, Presbyterian goes ahead 47-43Stetson 66% → 4% (−62)
Presbyterian’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Presbyterian -7.5), at 69% for Presbyterian (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Presbyterian scored on 8 of its 14 drives; Stetson on 6 of its 14.

Presbyterian’s drives are teal, Stetson’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Presbyterian: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownStetson: Punt, from 75 yards out to 60PuntPresbyterian: Punt, from 75 yards out to 77PuntStetson: Punt, from 78 yards out to 71PuntPresbyterian: Interception, from 72 yards out to 17InterceptionStetson: Interception, from 89 yards out to 89InterceptionPresbyterian: Touchdown, from 26 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Stetson: Punt, from 80 yards out to 75PuntPresbyterian: Interception, from 80 yards out to 19InterceptionStetson: Punt, from 99 yards out to 95PuntPresbyterian: Punt, from 70 yards out to 63PuntStetson: Touchdown, from 84 yards out to 0TouchdownPresbyterian: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntStetson: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownQ3Presbyterian: Field goal, from 60 yards out to 6Field goalStetson: Punt, from 72 yards out to 80PuntPresbyterian: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownStetson: Punt, from 68 yards out to 54PuntPresbyterian: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 10Field goalQ4Stetson: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownStetson: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownPresbyterian: Punt, from 78 yards out to 71PuntPresbyterian: Touchdown, from 16 yards out to 0TouchdownStetson: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownPresbyterian: Touchdown, from 62 yards out to 0TouchdownStetson: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownPresbyterian: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownStetson: Fumble, from 70 yards out to 57Fumble

From Stetson’s side

Stetson’s best moment: T.von Grote pass complete short left to T.Flowers for 75 yards to the end zone touchdown (Q4 4:29). It lifted Stetson’s win chance by 42 points.

8 lead changes.

Box score

Presbyterian 47, Stetson 43

Stetson covered +7.5 by 3.5. The total, 90, went over 61.5.

Presbyterian leaders

  • Passing Landon Sharpe 19 of 34, 292 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Jackson Burleson 26 for 103 yds, 2 TD; Damion Moate 19 for 90 yds, 2 TD
  • Receiving Anton Smith 3 for 72 yds; Jackson Burleson 2 for 68 yds, 1 TD

Stetson leaders

  • Passing Tom von Grote 23 of 28, 345 yds, 5 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Troy Flowers 13 for 63 yds; Anthony Benzija 3 for 41 yds
  • Receiving Troy Flowers 5 for 120 yds, 1 TD; Wyatt Rogers 9 for 105 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Presbyterian · 3-3

Rated 156th in our preseason ratings, 218th now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 34-point win over St. Thomas (MN) as a 28.5-point underdog.

W 38-21 vs Davidson #267 of 668

won by 17 as a 14.5-point favorite

Presbyterian won 38-21 vs Davidson. Chance to win started at 83%, low 53%, high better than 99%.

W 55-21 vs St. Thomas (MN) #193 of 668

won by 34 as a 28.5-point underdog

Presbyterian won 55-21 vs St. Thomas (MN). Chance to win started at 5%, low 3%, high better than 99%.

L 7-42 @ Marist #198 of 668

lost by 35 as an 8.5-point underdog

Presbyterian lost 7-42 at Marist. Chance to win started at 20%, low under 1%, high 20%.

Last three games

Stetson · 1-5

Rated 264th in our preseason ratings, 261st now.

Three straight losses.

L 21-64 @ St. Thomas (MN) #187 of 668

lost by 43 as a 22.5-point underdog

Stetson lost 21-64 at St. Thomas (MN). Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 6%.

L 14-28 vs Marist #182 of 668

lost by 14 as a 10.5-point underdog

Stetson lost 14-28 vs Marist. Chance to win started at 24%, low under 1%, high 50%.

L 7-45 @ UC Davis #117 of 668

lost by 38 as a 47.5-point underdog

Stetson lost 7-45 at UC Davis. Chance to win started at under 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 18-43 @ Bethune-Cookman #189 of 668

lost by 25 as a 14.5-point underdog

Stetson lost 18-43 at Bethune-Cookman. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 17%.

W 45-10 vs Webber International

L 7-70 @ South Dakota State #104 of 668

lost by 63 as a 50.5-point underdog

Stetson lost 7-70 at South Dakota State. Never had a real chance.

Week by week

Stetson

Wk 1: W 45-10 vs Webber International▲35Webber I…Wk 2: L 18-43 at Bethune-Cookman▼25Bethune-…Wk 3: L 7-45 at UC Davis▼38UC DavisWk 5: L 14-28 vs Marist▼14MaristWk 6: L 21-64 at St. Thomas (MN)▼43St. Thom…
  • Wk 1Wvs Webber International45-10
  • Wk 2Lat Bethune-Cookman18-43
  • Wk 3Lat UC Davis7-45
  • Wk 5Lvs Marist14-28
  • Wk 6Lat St. Thomas (MN)21-64

Presbyterian

Wk 1: L 3-62 at Mercer▼59MercerWk 3: L 14-58 at Western Carolina▼44W. Carol…Wk 4: L 7-42 at Marist▼35MaristWk 5: W 55-21 vs St. Thomas (MN)▲34St. Thom…Wk 6: W 38-21 vs Davidson▲17Davidson
  • Wk 1Lat Mercer3-62
  • Wk 3Lat Western Carolina14-58
  • Wk 4Lat Marist7-42
  • Wk 5Wvs St. Thomas (MN)55-21
  • Wk 6Wvs Davidson38-21

Power rating by week

Presbyterian is rated 5.0 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-6-11-16Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6StetsonPresbyterian

The series

Stetson leads the series 3-2

5 meetings since 2021 · Presbyterian has won the last 2

  • 2025Presbyterian 42-7
  • 2024Presbyterian 42-14
  • 2023Stetson 28-24
  • 2022Stetson 42-21
  • 2021Stetson 56-14

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Stetson’s chances here.

50-50Model 25% · Line 27%PresbyterianStetson

Presbyterian favored by 7.5 · Total 61.5

How games like this usually go

Presbyterian by 7.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Stetson.

opened +10.5now +7.5

The total rose 2 points.

opened 59.5now 61.5

Spread: +10.5 → +7.5 · Total: 59.5 → 61.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.