The rest of the season
Every game left is at least 75%
Win out 67% · expect 2.6 of 3 more wins
South Dakota State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Northern Iowa 79%, Southern Illinois 88%, Indiana State 97%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Chase Mason 1,432 · Rushing Josiah Johnson 952 · Receiving Grahm Goering 499 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow South Dakota State:athletics siteX
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Stetson | W 70-7 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Mason 157 · Rush Basinger 110 · Rec Dulaney 89 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Northwestern | L 18-34 143 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Mason 285 · Rush Johnson 79 · Rec Goering 117 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | New Haven | W 57-14 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Mason 255 · Rush Basinger 88 · Rec Goering 77 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Youngstown State | W 27-20 | 3-1 | 1-0 | Pass Mason 137 · Rush Johnson 238 · Rec O'Groske 94 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Eastern Illinois | W 42-7 | 4-1 | 1-0 | Pass Holst 176 · Rush Johnson 121 · Rec Kuntz 81 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Illinois State | W 31-14 | 5-1 | 2-0 | Pass Holst 153 · Rush Johnson 131 · Rec O'Groske 89 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @North Dakota | L 10-21 | 5-2 | 2-1 | Pass Mason 169 · Rush Basinger 101 · Rec Smith 62 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Murray State | W 42-9 | 6-2 | 3-1 | Pass Mason 197 · Rush Johnson 92 · Rec Smith 66 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | South Dakota | W 31-21 | 7-2 | 4-1 | Pass Mason 232 · Rush Johnson 126 · Rec Smith 84 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Northern Iowa | 2 pm ET79% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Southern Illinois | 2 pm ET88% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Indiana State | 3 pm ET97% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for South Dakota State, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | South Dakota | W 31-21 | — | — | — | +0.222 | 46.1% | 1.15 | |
| Oct 24 | Murray State | W 42-9 | — | — | — | +0.257 | 54.7% | 1.08 | Blowout win |
| Oct 17 | @North Dakota | L 10-21 | — | — | — | −0.039 | 34.8% | 1.27 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | @Illinois State | W 31-14 | — | — | — | +0.231 | 47.2% | 1.34 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 26 | Eastern Illinois | W 42-7 | — | — | — | +0.318 | 47.8% | 1.59 | Blowout win |
| Sep 19 | Youngstown State | W 27-20 | — | — | — | +0.288 | 52.4% | 0.96 | One-score win |
| Sep 12 | New Haven | W 57-14 | — | — | — | +0.325 | 43.5% | 1.58 | Blowout win |
| Sep 5 | @Northwestern | L 18-34 | 432 | 1 | 34:08 | +0.128 | 42.2% | 1.06 | Defense's roughest night |
| Aug 29 | Stetson | W 70-7 | — | — | — | +0.782 | 60.7% | 1.60 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (9 games) | 432 | 1.0 | +0.279 | 47.7% | 1.29 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last two.
Range of outcomes · South Dakota State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
8 wins 3%; 9 wins 29%; 10 wins 67%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-2
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among MVFC teams the same season
South Dakota State is 7-2 and plays at Northern Iowa next.
South Dakota State is 7-2 and plays at Northern Iowa next.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · South Dakota State · 2026