South Dakota State at Northern Iowa
South Dakota State (7‑2) at Northern Iowa (4‑4) — no line posted yet, but the model favors South Dakota State (79%).
How they got here
Last three games
South Dakota State · 7-2
Rated 105th in our preseason ratings, 78th now, up 27 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Northern Iowa · 4-4
Rated 176th in our preseason ratings, 158th now, up 18 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 45-23 vs Indiana State No. 219 of 668 teams
won by 22 as an 8.5-point favorite
L 17-20 @ Southern Illinois No. 185 of 668 teams
lost by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 56-14 vs Drake No. 226 of 668 teams
won by 42 as an 11.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
South Dakota State
- South Dakota State is 1 game back in MVFC with 2 left to make it up.
Northern Iowa
- Northern Iowa is 2 games back in MVFC with 2 left to make it up.
- Northern Iowa is coming off a 22-point win.
The series
Northern Iowa leads the series 11-10
21 meetings since 2006 · South Dakota State has won the last 4
- 2025South Dakota State 31-3
- 2024South Dakota State 41-3
- 2023South Dakota State 41-6
- 2022South Dakota State 31-28
- 2021Northern Iowa 26-17
Home field
Northern Iowa is worth +8.2 points (±10.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 98th percentile.
33% at home, 11% on the road against FBS opponents (2-4 home, 2-16 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.3 at home vs. away over 50 games — inside the ±8.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 250 miles to get here.
Week by week
Northern Iowa
- Wk 4Wvs Illinois State28-21
- Wk 6Wvs North Dakota24-17
- Wk 7Lat Youngstown State22-35
- Wk 8Lat Southern Illinois17-20
- Wk 9Wvs Indiana State45-23
South Dakota State
- Wk 4Wvs Eastern Illinois42-7
- Wk 5Wat Illinois State31-14
- Wk 7Lat North Dakota10-21
- Wk 8Wvs Murray State42-9
- Wk 9Wvs South Dakota31-21
Power rating by week
South Dakota State is rated 5.8 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Northern Iowa5th3-2
- South Dakota State2nd4-1