Eastern Washington beats Northern Iowa 34-24
Team pages: Northern Iowa · Eastern Washington
Eastern Washington beat Northern Iowa 34-24. Share this game
We had Eastern Washington favored. It won.
Next: Northern Iowa beat Drake 56-14, Sat Sep 12
Next: Eastern Washington lost to South Dakota 41-23, Sat Sep 12
How it swung
The turning point: Bell 2-yd TD run, Eastern Washington goes ahead 27-24 (Q3, 1:32). Eastern Washington went from 58% to 73% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Eastern Washington a 60% chance, and the closing betting line (Eastern Washington was a 7-point favorite) put it at 71%.
A tight one: Eastern Washington bottomed out at 42% and won.
Northern Iowa never had better than a 58% chance.
Eastern Washington 34-24 Northern Iowa
Eastern Washington wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Northern Iowa 24-34 Eastern WashingtonNorthern Iowa lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 1:324th and 2Bell 2-yd TD run, Eastern Washington goes ahead 27-24Eastern Washington 58% → 73% (+15)
- 2Q4 3:16Bell 15-yd TD pass to East, Eastern Washington leads 34-24Eastern Washington 86% → 96% (+10)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 1:324th and 2Bell 2-yd TD run, Eastern Washington goes ahead 27-24Northern Iowa 42% → 27% (−15)
- 2Q4 3:16Bell 15-yd TD pass to East, Eastern Washington leads 34-24Northern Iowa 14% → 4% (−10)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Eastern Washington -7), at 74% for Eastern Washington (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Eastern Washington scored on 5 of its 10 drives; Northern Iowa on 4 of its 9.
Eastern Washington’s drives are teal, Northern Iowa’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
6 lead changes.
Box score
Eastern Washington 34, Northern Iowa 24
Eastern Washington covered −7 by 3. The total, 58, went over 52.5.
Northern Iowa leaders
- Passing Jaxon Dailey 20 of 28, 287 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Taj Hughes 3 for 23 yds; Jaxon Dailey 15 for 18 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving Tay Norman 4 for 61 yds; Kai Black 2 for 57 yds
Eastern Washington leaders
- Passing Nate Bell 24 of 33, 257 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Nate Bell 18 for 94 yds, 3 TD; Jaxon Bell 5 for 26 yds
- Receiving Wesley Garrett 4 for 70 yds; Drew Carlson 5 for 45 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Northern Iowa · 3-9
Rated 176th in our preseason ratings.
L 32-35 vs Youngstown State #140 of 667
lost by 3 as a 14-point underdog
L 16-48 @ North Dakota State #55 of 667
lost by 32 as a 34-point underdog
W 31-14 vs Murray State #268 of 667
won by 17 as a 12.5-point favorite
L 16-31 @ Illinois State #146 of 667
lost by 15 as a 12.5-point underdog
L 17-31 @ Southern Illinois #134 of 667
lost by 14 as a 15-point underdog
L 14-17 vs South Dakota #143 of 667
lost by 3 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 3-31 @ South Dakota State #77 of 667
lost by 28 as a 28.5-point underdog
L 7-35 vs North Dakota #101 of 667
lost by 28 as a 15-point underdog
L 9-20 @ Utah Tech #210 of 667
lost by 11 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 17-14 vs Eastern Washington #184 of 667
won by 3 as a 4.5-point favorite
L 7-31 @ Wyoming #112 of 667
lost by 24 as a 13.5-point underdog
W 38-14 vs Butler #184 of 667
won by 24 as a 16.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Eastern Washington · 5-7
Rated 186th in our preseason ratings, 186th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 34-43 @ Cal Poly #196 of 667
lost by 9 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 27-7 vs Northern Colorado #233 of 667
won by 20 as a 3.5-point favorite
L 24-29 @ Montana #79 of 667
lost by 5 as a 27-point underdog
L 13-35 vs Sacramento State #111 of 667
lost by 22 as an 8.5-point underdog
W 23-20 @ Weber State #212 of 667
won by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite
W 21-14 vs Idaho #169 of 667
won by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog
W 35-27 vs Portland State #248 of 667
won by 8 as an 11-point favorite
L 3-57 @ Montana State #82 of 667
lost by 54 as a 21-point underdog
W 52-31 vs Western Illinois #238 of 667
won by 21 as a 13-point favorite
L 14-17 @ Northern Iowa #196 of 667
lost by 3 as a 4.5-point underdog
L 14-51 @ Boise StateTop 25 #59 of 667
lost by 37 as a 33.5-point underdog
L 21-31 @ Incarnate Word #129 of 667
lost by 10 as a 10-point underdog
The series
Northern Iowa leads the series 3-2
5 meetings since 2005 · Northern Iowa won the last meeting
- 2025Northern Iowa 17-14
- 2021Eastern Washington 19-9
- 2016Eastern Washington 34-30
- 2015Northern Iowa 38-35
- 2005Northern Iowa 41-38
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Eastern Washington’s chances here.
Eastern Washington favored by 7 · Total 52.5
How games like this usually go
Eastern Washington by 7, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Eastern Washington.
Spread: −6.5 → −7
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Eastern Washington has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.2 points (±5.3), home against road — 3rd percentile of FBS.
0% at home, 17% on the road against FBS opponents (0-2 home, 2-10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.3 at home vs. away over 55 games — inside the ±7.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,268 miles to get here.