The rest of the season
Every game left is at least 70%
Win out 49% · expect 2.4 of 3 more wins
North Dakota State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Hawai'i 72%, Northern Illinois 93%, San José State 74%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Standing4th in the Mountain West · 4-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Nathan Hayes 1,710 · Rushing Myles Mitchell 398 · Receiving Jackson Williams 614 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow North Dakota State:athletics siteMountain WestX@ndsuathleticsInstagram@ndsuathletics
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #89 | #66 | −6.5✓ +19.5 | Jacksonville State | W 33-7 121 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Hayes 160 · Rush Mitchell 74 · Rec Williams 58 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | #89 | #244 | −41.5✗ −3.5 | Fordham | W 38-0 117 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Hayes 210 · Rush Scott 60 · Rec Kiel 50 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #80 | #82 | −1.5✓ +4.5 | @Air Force | W 38-32 126 | 3-0 | 1-0 | Pass Hayes 228 · Rush Mitchell 61 · Rec Conklin 57 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #70 | #130 | −26.5✗ −5.5 | @Sacramento State | W 31-10 126 | 4-0 | 1-0 | Pass Hayes 210 · Rush Scott 80 · Rec Williams 134 |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #65 | #121 | −17.5✓ +10.5 | Wyoming | W 28-0 119 | 5-0 | 2-0 | Pass Hayes 187 · Rush Hayes 79 · Rec Williams 75 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #57 | #79 | −3✗ −9 | @UNLV | L 7-13 125 Roaring | 5-1 | 2-1 | Pass Hayes 124 · Rush Mitchell 91 · Rec Kiel 30 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #54 | #169 | −14.5✗ −0.5 | Nevada | W 31-17 127 Loud | 6-1 | 3-1 | Pass Hayes 153 · Rush Mitchell 49 · Rec Williams 58 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #56 | #50 | +4.5✗ −0.5 | @New Mexico | L 16-21 121 | 6-2 | 3-2 | Pass Hayes 198 · Rush Mitchell 34 · Rec Williams 71 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #62 | #238 | −23.5✓ +0.5 | UTEP | W 31-7 120 | 7-2 | 4-2 | Pass Hayes 240 · Rush Scott 50 · Rec Williams 111 |
| 10 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #62 | #109 | @Hawai'i | 11:59 pm ET · The CW72% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Northern Illinois | 4 pm ET · The CW93% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | @San José State | 3:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network74% to win | ||||||
Win chances are our model for North Dakota State, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for North Dakota State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | UTEP | W 31-7 | 381 | 1 | 36:44 | +0.155 | 42.9% | 1.27 | |
| Oct 24 | @New Mexico | L 16-21 | 251 | 2 | 29:28 | -0.179 | 26.6% | 1.53 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | Nevada | W 31-17 | 345 | 0 | 38:09 | +0.160 | 39.4% | 1.13 | |
| Oct 10 | @UNLV | L 7-13 | 300 | 3 | 26:32 | -0.133 | 37.3% | 1.11 | One-score loss |
| Oct 3 | Wyoming | W 28-0 | 407 | 1 | 33:06 | +0.209 | 51.4% | 1.00 | Best success rate |
| Sep 19 | @Sacramento State | W 31-10 | 362 | 0 | 30:30 | +0.088 | 29.5% | 1.92 | Most explosive |
| Sep 12 | @Air Force | W 38-32 | 374 | 1 | 29:05 | +0.113 | 37.7% | 1.72 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 5 | Fordham | W 38-0 | 373 | 0 | 33:27 | +0.259 | 49.3% | 1.21 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | Jacksonville State | W 33-7 | 373 | 1 | 36:07 | +0.219 | 42.0% | 1.11 | Best defensive stand |
| Season average (9 games) | 352 | 1.0 | +0.099 | 39.6% | 1.33 | ||||
North Dakota State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last one.
<1% now
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Sat 10:30 pm · Moves North Dakota State’s conference title chance by 4 points
Root for Nevada over New Mexico
Fri 9 pm · Moves North Dakota State’s conference title chance by 4 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
Range of outcomes · North Dakota State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
8 wins 10%; 9 wins 41%; 10 wins 49%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-2
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Mountain West teams the same season
North Dakota State is the only program in American football that won ten national championships in fourteen seasons — and is now asking whether a dynasty that owned the FCS can own the FBS too.
The chip is fourteen years of national media calling the FCS titles impressive but small — asterisked by the level, dimmed by the division, never fully counted. Bison fans believe that ten…
North Dakota State won ten FCS national championships in fourteen seasons and enters the FBS in 2026 as the sport's most credentialed reclassifier -- a Fargodome dynasty with an unbroken NFL quarterback pipeline, bowl-ineligible until 2028, asking whether ten titles built at one level travel to another.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 3 signees
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Among the stronger offseasons on record for this program
95th percentile among FBS programs
More
2North Dakota State's 12-1 record marks its first winning season in FBS, but the program's FCS legacy raises questions about whether its identity can translate beyond the Fargodome dynasty.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · North Dakota State · 2026