The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: Air Force 25%
Win out 2% · expect 1.6 of 4 more wins
San José State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Northern Illinois 65%, Air Force 25%, UNLV 42%, North Dakota State 26%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 26% to 61%, peaking at 81% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
Standing7th in the Mountain West · 2-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Luke Weaver 1,810 · Rushing Jabari Bates 649 · Receiving Carson Clark 642 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow San José State:athletics siteMountain WestX
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #151 | #28 | +37.5✓ +21.5 | @USC | L 26-42 132 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Weaver 234 · Rush Weaver 42 · Rec Clark 74 |
| 1 | Sep 4 | #151 | #92 | +1.5✓ +7.5 | @Eastern Michigan | W 27-21 145 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Weaver 316 · Rush Bates 119 · Rec Hoch 115 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #132 | #218 | −21.5✗ −11.5 | Cal Poly | W 30-20 147 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Weaver 238 · Rush Bates 163 · Rec Clark 81 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #126 | #55 | +4✗ −12 | Fresno State | L 10-26 138 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Weaver 244 · Rush Bates 94 · Rec Ivey 150 |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #140 | #99 | +2.5✓ +6.5 | @Hawai'i | W 20-16 125 | 3-2 | 1-0 | Pass Weaver 246 · Rush Bates 74 · Rec Clark 74 |
| 6 | Oct 9 | #125 | #136 | −4.5✗ −7.5 | Wyoming | L 13-16 143 | 3-3 | 1-1 | Pass Weaver 251 · Rush Bates 69 · Rec Clark 91 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #126 | #239 | −6.5✓ +6.5 | @UTEP | W 24-11 142 | 4-3 | 2-1 | Pass Rolovich 193 · Rush Teu 156 · Rec Clark 104 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #128 | #154 | +6✗ −9 | @Nevada | L 13-28 130 | 4-4 | 2-2 | Pass Weaver 91 · Rush Teu 44 · Rec McKenzie 60 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #138 | #47 | +15.5✓ +10.5 | New Mexico | L 16-21 116 | 4-5 | 2-3 | Pass Weaver 190 · Rush Bates 63 · Rec Clark 91 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #133 | #198 | −10.5 | Northern Illinois | 4 pm ET65% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #133 | #78 | @Air Force | 7 pm ET · CBS Sports Network25% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | UNLV | 7 pm ET · CBS Sports Network42% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | North Dakota State | 3:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network | ||||||
Win chances are our model for San José State, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for San José State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | New Mexico | L 16-21 | 238 | 2 | 28:33 | -0.182 | 26.3% | 1.62 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | @Nevada | L 13-28 | 204 | 0 | 21:42 | -0.154 | 22.8% | 1.16 | |
| Oct 17 | @UTEP | W 24-11 | 426 | 0 | 24:43 | +0.326 | 43.3% | 1.37 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 9 | Wyoming | L 13-16 | 326 | 1 | 22:18 | +0.122 | 46.2% | 0.91 | One-score loss |
| Oct 3 | @Hawai'i | W 20-16 | 324 | 0 | 29:59 | +0.159 | 36.5% | 1.02 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | Fresno State | L 10-26 | 335 | 4 | 26:08 | -0.167 | 32.9% | 1.11 | |
| Sep 12 | Cal Poly | W 30-20 | 493 | 1 | 31:02 | +0.218 | 48.7% | 1.06 | Best success rate |
| Sep 4 | @Eastern Michigan | W 27-21 | 453 | 2 | 29:52 | +0.128 | 33.3% | 1.58 | One-score win |
| Aug 29 | @USC | L 26-42 | 336 | 0 | 22:45 | +0.216 | 43.9% | 1.22 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (9 games) | 348 | 1.1 | +0.074 | 37.1% | 1.23 | ||||
San José State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
You’re trying to tell guys to keep fighting, but it’s hard to get mad at the defense for giving up some of those third downs when they’re on the field all the time and you can’t move the ball on offense
The open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
San José State's 3-9 record contrasts with its 2020 7-1 Mountain West championship, highlighting the challenge Ken Niumatalolo faces in restoring that identity.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · San José State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 11%; 5 wins 37%; 6 wins 36%; 7 wins 14%; 8 wins 2%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
Only 1 of 1201 board posts mention it, below our floor for calling a community stance. The posts are shown for texture only.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-5
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Mountain West teams the same season
San José State plays football in the middle of Silicon Valley, where the smartest money in America has never once been spent on caring about the Spartans — and where a 2020 conference title proved they could win anyway.
Spartan fans know the deal: they're the football program nobody outside San José thinks about, in a valley that worships startups, not Saturdays. They'll remind you they won a Mountain West title…
San José State · Game-day weather
Typical at CEFCU Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 98, noon Saturdays 92
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 109 at noon, 98 at 3:30 pm, 96 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
San José State is the Mountain West program whose 2020 7-1 + Mountain West championship under Brent Brennan + CEFCU Stadium identity define what Silicon-Valley-G5-football looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Among the stronger offseasons on record for this program
96th percentile among FBS programs
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · San José State · 2026