Home Conferences FBS 2026 season

The weekly grind · 2026

Mountain West

The Coaching Factory

New Mexico holds the Mountain West lead heading into this week's games.

Mountain West is outperforming its raw power profile. The league body of work is stronger than the market would expect.

#9Overall

#9In FBS

+16.5Conference strength

+20.7Upper strength

10Teams

0Top-25 teams

Mountain West, at a glance.

Top 10 by power rating — 2026 season, through the latest games.

Team Record Power

New Mexico

7-1 +21.7

North Dakota State

7-2 +20.6

Air Force

6-2 +18.5

UNLV

5-3 +17.0

Hawai'i

2-6 +15.5

Wyoming

5-3 +14.8

San José State

4-5 +13.8

Nevada

3-5 +12.4

Northern Illinois

0-8 +9.8

UTEP

1-7 +6.7

Power snapshot Projected 2026 standing

The Coaching Factory

The Mountain West doesn't have the recruiting budgets of the Power Four, but it has something else: almost every program in the conference plays better than its recruiting class should allow. New Mexico went 9-4 with the 138th-ranked recruiting class. Fresno State finished at SP+ #38 despite recruiting at #103. San Diego State sits at SP+ #32 with a #78 class. The Mountain West is the coaching premium capital of FBS.

0 top-25 teams.

The depth argument for this conference rests on how many credible opponents are clustered behind the leader. The gap between the top and bottom is narrow — a sign of genuine parity.

Where things stand right now.

New Mexico holds the Mountain West lead heading into this week's games.

Tools Matchup simulator Compare teams Playoff forecast Style map Head to head Power map

The Premium Story

New Mexico Went 9-4 With the 138th Recruiting Class

New Mexico’s coaching premium is +83 — the gap between their #138 recruiting rank and their #55 SP+ rating. That’s one of the largest gaps in FBS. A program that spent most of the last decade finishing under .500 went 9-4 in 2025 and looked competitive against programs with three times the recruiting budget. Whether this is sustainable — or whether the Mountain West starts to lose players to the portal once national attention arrives — is the most interesting story in the conference.

Why it matters →

The Conference Leader

San Diego State Holds the Mountain West’s Best SP+ Rating

San Diego State holds the Mountain West’s highest SP+ ranking (#32) entering 2026, with a recruiting class ranked #78 nationally and a +46 coaching premium. The Aztecs went 9-4 in 2025 and are built around the same run-first, defense-first model that made them hard to beat for a decade. In a conference where most programs overperform, San Diego State is the one most likely to make noise in the CFP access conversation.

Why it matters →

The Other Side

Nevada and Colorado State Are Recruiting Better Than They’re Playing

Not every Mountain West program runs the coaching surplus. Nevada went 3-9 in 2025 with a recruiting class ranked #88 nationally — a -29 coaching gap that’s the conference’s worst. Colorado State finished 2-10 with a #106 class, a -21 gap. Wyoming went 4-8 despite recruiting at #89. These programs are the ceiling argument for what the conference can produce — and the floor argument for what happens when coaching doesn’t amplify the limited recruiting budget that every Mountain West school starts with.

Active arcs

Active2mo ago

Memphis football rumors: Insider makes bold Charles Huff prediction after Tigers

Can Memphis sustain its momentum after this debut victory under Charles Huff?

UNLV

Developing4wk ago

Mountain West Football Rankings Highlight Week 5 Disparities

Will the disparity between top and bottom teams in the Mountain West continue?

North Dakota StateNew Mexico

Developing4wk ago

Air Force QB Liam Szarka Out for Remainder of 2026 Season

How will Air Force replace Szarka's production at quarterback for the rest of the year?

Air Force

Developing3wk ago

Air Force Visits NIU for Homecoming Game

Can Air Force overcome its early-season struggles against a winless NIU team?

Air Force

Developing5wk ago

Cowboys start Mountain West play with win over Hawaii, Cowgirls volleyball battl

Can Hawai‘i recover from back-to-back losses to remain competitive in the Mountain West?

Hawai'i

All arcs →

Fan pulse Last 30 days · 1,463 mentions

18% positive 50% neutral 32% negative

North Dakota State

306

↓ negative

New Mexico

212

↑ positive

Hawai'i

183

↓ negative

Air Force

183

↓ negative

Nevada

141

↓ negative

UNLV

128

↓ negative

Fan confidence by FBS percentile

Where each Mountain West program stands nationally in fan sentiment (100th = most positive in FBS, 0 = least). Conference median: 77th percentile. The label is the band (Bullish, Leaning, Mixed, Souring); the number after it is the change in percentile points since the prior week.

Bullish+26

Bullish+13

Bullish+40

Bullish+26

Bullish-9

Bullish+13

Leaning+8

Leaning+2

Mixed+4

Mixed+21

Most volatile: San José State

Fan confidence has swung 82 percentile points in the last 8 weeks — currently at the 96th percentile nationally.

The coaching premium

Recruiting class rank vs. SP+ performance — where coaches add or subtract value

Above line = coaching premium

Below line = underperforming

Gap = recruiting rank minus SP+ rank

Positive gap means the coaching staff won more than the recruiting class predicted. Data: Mountain West teams, 10 programs.

Coaching premium ↑

Air Force

+60

North

+55

New

+35

Hawai'i

+20

San

Underperforming ↓

UTEP

-73

Northern

-72

Nevada

-41

UNLV

-29

Wyoming

-2

Standings

2026 season, in progress — sorted by power rating. The tag beside a team is its long-run program standing.

#	Team	Record	Power	Resume
1	New Mexico Regional Program IV#119	7-1	+21.7	+95.4
2	North Dakota State National Program II#55	7-2	+20.6	+87.7
3	Air Force Regional Program II#89	6-2	+18.5	+76.5
4	UNLV Regional Program II#92	5-3	+17.0	+77.2
5	Hawai'i Regional Program IV#108	2-6	+15.5	+25.3
6	Wyoming Regional Program III#105	5-3	+14.8	+69.9
7	San José State Regional Program IV#113	4-5	+13.8	+72.0
8	Nevada Regional Program IV#122	3-5	+12.4	+86.1
9	Northern Illinois Regional Program IV#115	0-8	+9.8	+11.2
10	UTEP Regional Program VI#134	1-7	+6.7	+60.1

Projected standings · Mountain West · 2026

Win projection

Odds of winning at least N conference games from current power ratings — full slate played out, not locked to results. Avg = expected wins; W-L = most-likely record.

#	Team	W-L	Pwr	Avg	≥8	≥7	≥6	≥5	≥4	≥3	≥2	≥1
Favorites
1	New Mexico	5-3	+6.6	5.2	3	16	42	71	90	98	✓	✓
2	North Dakota State	5-3	+5.5	5.0	2	13	37	66	88	97	✓	✓
Challengers
3	Air Force	5-3	+3.4	4.7	1	9	28	56	81	95	99	✓
4	UNLV	4-4	+1.9	4.2		4	17	42	70	89	98	✓
5	Hawai'i	4-4	+0.4	4.2		4	17	41	68	88	97	✓
The field
6	Wyoming	4-4	−0.3	3.9		3	12	33	61	84	96	✓
7	San José State	4-4	−1.2	3.9		3	12	32	60	84	96	✓
8	Nevada	3-5	−2.7	3.4		1	7	22	48	75	93	99
Rebuilding
9	Northern Illinois	3-5	−5.2	3.1		1	4	15	37	66	89	98
10	UTEP	2-6	−8.4	2.4			1	6	20	46	76	95

How they play

Six advanced-stat dimensions per team, ranked against all 134 FBS programs, 2026 season. Every column reads higher-is-better. Click a column to sort.

ScoringConvertsBig playsDefensePacePass rate

Team	Scoring	Converts	Big plays	Defense	Pace	Pass rate	Identity
New Mexico	+0.09	41.2%	+1.27	+0.15	62.5	28.4%	Lockdown defense
North Dakota State	+0.10	39.6%	+1.33	+0.12	65.3	40.1%	Lockdown defense
Air Force	+0.22	50.1%	+1.02	−0.09	73.2	11.8%	High-tempo
UNLV	+0.13	39.4%	+1.29	−0.09	65.9	41.8%	Balanced
Hawai'i	+0.06	40.8%	+1.14	−0.18	71.0	61.3%	No explosive plays
Wyoming	+0.14	45.5%	+1.07	−0.13	57.5	37.6%	Grind-it-out
San José State	+0.07	37.1%	+1.23	−0.06	64.6	48.7%	Can't sustain drives
Nevada	+0.03	38.3%	+1.31	−0.09	64.6	42.8%	Balanced
Northern Illinois	−0.03	38.9%	+1.23	−0.26	62.8	53.0%	Defense is the problem
UTEP	−0.10	33.3%	+1.37	−0.24	57.8	38.7%	Grind-it-out

Identity is the single dimension where a team is most above or below the FBS average (pace, defense, big plays, or converting drives) — "Balanced" means nothing stands out either way. CFBD 2026 advanced stats, excludes garbage time.

Top players

Mountain West's highest CFB Zeitgeist Scores, 2026 season so far.

#	Player	Team	National
1	Dylan LeeLB	San José State	#2 of 567
2	Mumu Bin-WahadCB	UNLV	#4 of 344
3	Jayland McGlothenEDGE	San José State	#5 of 405
4	Logan LarsonIDL	North Dakota State	#4 of 300
5	Marion MooreCB	North Dakota State	#10 of 344
6	Kal-El TogafauIDL	UNLV	#9 of 300
7	Blake FletcherLB	Air Force	#15 of 567
8	Tre FultonS	UNLV	#9 of 537
9	Max MustellCB	Air Force	#13 of 344
10	Jones ThomasS	Wyoming	#10 of 537

Where Mountain West stands nationally

Conference strength, as a round-robin adjusted power rating.

1 SEC SEC

+24.4

2 B10 Big Ten

+23.3

3 IND FBS Independents

+21.7

4 B12 Big 12

+21.5

5 P12 Pac-12

+20.8

6 ACC ACC

+20.5

7 AAC American Athletic

+18.3

8 SB Sun Belt

+17.3

9 MW Mountain West

+16.5

10 CUSA Conference USA

+16.4

Mountain West title odds

Best available American odds · sportsbook consensus.

#	Team	Odds
1	New Mexico	−185
2	North Dakota State	+160
3	UNLV	+270
4	Air Force	+650
5	Wyoming	+1300
6	Hawai'i	+1900
7	Nevada	+2500
8	San Jose State	+3000
9	Northern Illinois	+12000
10	UTEP	+20000