The rest of the season
Two real tests left: No. 22 New Mexico 22%, San José State 58%
Win out 7% · expect 2.3 of 4 more wins
UNLV's chance to win each game left, from our model: Wyoming 76%, New Mexico 22%, San José State 58%, Nevada 72%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Conference title chance went from 30% to 21%, peaking at 34% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
Standing3rd in the Mountain West · 3-1 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Jackson Arnold 1,660 · Rushing Jai'Den Thomas 657 · Receiving Kayden McGee 442 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow UNLV:athletics siteMountain WestX@unlvathletics
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #91 | #100 | −4.5✗ −10.5 | Memphis | L 21-27 139 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Arnold 291 · Rush Arnold 54 · Rec Thomas 54 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | #91 | #59 | −2.5✓ +12.5 | @Hawai'i | W 21-6 137 Firestorm | 1-1 | 1-0 | Pass Arnold 116 · Rush Thomas 143 · Rec Burnett 55 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #91 | #123 | −3✗ −41 | @North Texas | L 6-44 139 | 1-2 | 1-0 | Pass Arnold 194 · Rush Thomas 37 · Rec Reddicks 75 |
| 3 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #105 | #67 | −13.5✓ +14.5 | @Akron | W 38-10 121 | 2-2 | 1-0 | Pass Arnold 290 · Rush Thomas 113 · Rec Reddicks 116 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #97 | #74 | −1.5✓ +6.5 | California | W 39-31 144 | 3-2 | 1-0 | Pass Arnold 177 · Rush Arnold 110 · Rec McGee 85 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #79 | #57 | +3✓ +9 | North Dakota State | W 13-7 125 | 4-2 | 2-0 | Pass Arnold 77 · Rush Thomas 112 · Rec McGee 43 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #76 | #69 | +1.5✗ −8.5 | @Air Force | L 31-41 130 | 4-3 | 2-1 | Pass Arnold 246 · Rush Arnold 78 · Rec McGee 99 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #89 | #194 | −21.5✗ −14.5 | Northern Illinois | W 31-24 137 | 5-3 | 3-1 | Pass Arnold 269 · Rush Thomas 114 · Rec McGee 112 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #95 | #124 | −6 | Wyoming | 10:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network76% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #95 | #53 | @New Mexico | 7:30 pm ET · The CW22% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @San José State | 7 pm ET · CBS Sports Network58% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Nevada | 9 pm ET · CBS Sports Network | ||||||
Win chances are our model for UNLV, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for UNLV: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Northern Illinois | W 31-24 | 473 | 2 | 24:51 | +0.298 | 49.2% | 1.32 | Best success rate |
| Oct 17 | @Air Force | L 31-41 | 376 | 2 | 24:47 | +0.203 | 46.3% | 1.18 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 10 | North Dakota State | W 13-7 | 255 | 1 | 33:28 | -0.032 | 38.5% | 0.92 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | California | W 39-31 | 350 | 2 | 28:43 | +0.161 | 25.8% | 2.09 | Most explosive |
| Sep 26 | @Akron | W 38-10 | 493 | 0 | 31:38 | +0.418 | 49.2% | 1.36 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @North Texas | L 6-44 | 301 | 4 | 27:45 | -0.244 | 35.6% | 0.62 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @Hawai'i | W 21-6 | 364 | 0 | 27:55 | +0.156 | 37.5% | 1.42 | |
| Aug 29 | Memphis | L 21-27 | 460 | 0 | 35:09 | +0.091 | 33.3% | 1.46 | One-score loss |
| Season average (8 games) | 384 | 1.4 | +0.132 | 39.4% | 1.29 | ||||
UNLV's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last one.
I’ll tell Coach Saban and the other guys, we’ll give them a nice tee time over at Southern Highlands or something
Root for Nevada over New Mexico
Fri 9 pm · Moves UNLV’s conference title chance by 3 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
Range of outcomes · UNLV · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 2%; 6 wins 16%; 7 wins 40%; 8 wins 35%; 9 wins 7%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
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This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Mountain West teams the same season
UNLV is the desert program that spent decades as a punchline and is now the best team in the Mountain West that can't win the Mountain West — three straight title-game losses to Boise State, all in the brightest lights in college football.
Rebels fans are tired of being treated as a novelty act — the casino-town team nobody took seriously. They'll tell you UNLV has been one of the best stories in the Group of Five for three years…
UNLV is the Mountain West program whose 2024 11-3 + Mountain West championship game under Barry Odom + Allegiant Stadium NFL-stadium-shared identity define what Las-Vegas-football looks like.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · UNLV · 2026