UNLV beats Northern Illinois 31-24
Team pages: Northern Illinois · UNLV
UNLV beat Northern Illinois 31-24. Share this game
We had UNLV favored. It won.
Next: Northern Illinois at San José State, Sat Nov 7 · 4:00 PM ET · Northern Illinois underdog by 10
Next: UNLV vs Wyoming, Sat Nov 7 · 10:30 PM ET · UNLV favored by 6
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave UNLV a 91% chance, and the closing betting line (UNLV was a 21.5-point favorite) put it at 96%.
Favored the whole way: UNLV never fell below 78%.
Northern Illinois never had better than a 22% chance.
UNLV · Q1 14:4921 unansweredUNLV · Q2 0:20UNLV 31-24 Northern Illinois
UNLV wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Northern Illinois 24-31 UNLVNorthern Illinois lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (UNLV -21.5), at 98% for UNLV (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show UNLV’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 14:49Arnold 75-yd TD pass to McGeeQ1, 14:49 · UNLV 7, Northern Illinois 07-0score after the play7-0score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q1, 9:57Johnson 20-yd TD runties it 7-7Q1, 9:57 · UNLV 7, Northern Illinois 7▼2%UNLV’s chance to win, 96% to 94%▼2%UNLV’s chance to win, 96% to 94%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q1, 0:53Dickens 12-yd TD pass to RogersNorthern Illinois goes ahead 14-10Q1, 0:53 · UNLV 10, Northern Illinois 14▼5%UNLV’s chance to win, 91% to 86%▼5%UNLV’s chance to win, 91% to 86%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 14:47Arnold intercepted by Kerperin at the NIU38returned 21 yardsQ2, 14:47 · UNLV 10, Northern Illinois 14▼6%UNLV’s chance to win, 86% to 80%▼6%UNLV’s chance to win, 86% to 80%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 7:04Arnold 31-yd TD pass to Burnettties it 17-17Q2, 7:04 · UNLV 17, Northern Illinois 17▲6%UNLV’s chance to win, 82% to 88%▲6%UNLV’s chance to win, 82% to 88%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 3:33Dickens sacked for a 8-yd lossQ2, 3:33 · UNLV 17, Northern Illinois 17▲3%UNLV’s chance to win, 83% to 86%▲3%UNLV’s chance to win, 83% to 86%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 0:20Arnold 2-yd TD pass to LyonsUNLV goes ahead 24-17Q2, 0:20 · UNLV 24, Northern Illinois 17▲6%UNLV’s chance to win, 89% to 95%▲6%UNLV’s chance to win, 89% to 95%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q3, 11:18Thomas 60-yd TD runUNLV leads 31-17Q3, 11:18 · UNLV 31, Northern Illinois 17▲2%UNLV’s chance to win, 96% to 98%▲2%UNLV’s chance to win, 96% to 98%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q3, 9:31Dickens 61-yd TD pass to Dimopouloscuts it to 31-24Q3, 9:31 · UNLV 31, Northern Illinois 24▼2%UNLV’s chance to win, 98% to 96%▼2%UNLV’s chance to win, 98% to 96%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q4, 12:52Dickens intercepted by Bin-Wahad at the UNLV 10returned 53 yardsQ4, 12:52 · UNLV 31, Northern Illinois 24▲5%UNLV’s chance to win, 93% to 98%▲5%UNLV’s chance to win, 93% to 98%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
Every drive
UNLV scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Northern Illinois on 4 of its 11.
UNLV’s drives are teal, Northern Illinois’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
UNLV’s chance to win the conference rose from 19% to 20%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 31, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
UNLV plays vs Wyoming on Sat Nov 7 with a 20% chance to win the conference.
Box score
UNLV 31, Northern Illinois 24
Northern Illinois covered +21.5 by 14.5. The total, 55, stayed under 55.5.
| Team totals | Northern Illinois | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 493 | 473 |
| Passing | 19 of 37, 253 yds | 20 of 30, 269 yds |
| Rushing | 38 for 240 yds | 32 for 204 yds |
| First downs | 24 | 22 |
| Third down | 9 of 17 | 5 of 11 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Penalties | 5 for 50 yds | 6 for 75 yds |
| Time of possession | 35:09 | 24:51 |
Northern Illinois leaders
- Passing Taron Dickens 19 of 37, 253 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Elijah Porter 21 for 113 yds; Telly Johnson Jr. 8 for 72 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving George Dimopoulos 7 for 127 yds, 1 TD; DeAree Rogers 7 for 96 yds, 1 TD
UNLV leaders
- Passing Jackson Arnold 20 of 30, 269 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Jai'Den Thomas 16 for 114 yds, 1 TD; Jackson Arnold 13 for 86 yds
- Receiving Kayden McGee 5 for 112 yds, 1 TD; Taeshaun Lyons 4 for 51 yds, 1 TD
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Northern Illinois · 0-7
Rated 101st in our preseason ratings, 194th now.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
UNLV · 4-3
Rated 91st in our preseason ratings, 89th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 6-point win over North Dakota State as a 3-point underdog.
Week by week
UNLV
- Wk 2Lat North Texas6-44
- Wk 4Wat Akron38-10
- Wk 5Wvs California39-31
- Wk 6Wvs North Dakota State13-7
- Wk 7Lat Air Force31-41
Northern Illinois
- Wk 3Lat Arizona17-42
- Wk 4Lat Georgia State14-35
- Wk 6Lvs Air Force7-28
- Wk 7Lat Wyoming23-41
- Wk 8Lvs Hawai'i21-56
Power rating by week
UNLV is rated 8.4 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Northern Illinois’s passing EPA against UNLV, 69 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Northern Illinois’s passing EPA against UNLV’s defense
Northern Illinois offense, 18th percentile · UNLV defense, 87th
UNLV’s EPA/play against Northern Illinois’s defense
UNLV offense, 50th percentile · Northern Illinois defense, 3rd
UNLV’s explosive plays against Northern Illinois’s defense
UNLV offense, 69th percentile · Northern Illinois defense, 52nd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Northern Illinois leads the series 5-0
5 meetings since 1987 · Northern Illinois has won the last 5
- 2015Northern Illinois 38-30
- 2014Northern Illinois 48-34
- 1995Northern Illinois 62-14
- 1989Northern Illinois 42-24
- 1987Northern Illinois 34-31
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Northern Illinois fans are in a better mood than UNLV fans (98th percentile vs 61st among FBS fanbases), even with UNLV favored.
UNLV favored by 21.5 · Total 55.5
How games like this usually go
UNLV by 21.5: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 430 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Northern Illinois.
The total rose 3 points.
Spread: −24.5 → −21.5 · Total: 52.5 → 55.5
The books’ cut: 3.8%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
UNLV is worth +1.7 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 14th percentile.
49% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (21-22 home, 20-29 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.8 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 1,467 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- UNLV5th2-1
- Northern Illinois9th0-3