The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: App State 43%
Win out 1% · expect 1.3 of 4 more wins
Georgia State's chance to win each game left, from our model: App State 43%, Georgia Southern 31%, Marshall 37%, Louisiana 18%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 23% to 56%, peaking at 95% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 12th in the Sun Belt · 1-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Cameran Brown 1,356 · Rushing Qwantavius Wiggins 446 · Receiving Rodshaun Dorsey 459 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 | #155 | #263 | −28.5✓ +20.5 | North Carolina A&T | W 59-10 71 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Brown 190 · Rush McCrary Jr. 75 · Rec Murray Jr. 50 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #154 | #153 | +7.5✓ +21.5 | @Kennesaw State | W 31-17 126 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Brown 253 · Rush McCrary Jr. 101 · Rec Washington 59 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #139 | #93 | +17.5✓ +3.5 | @UCF | L 30-44 141 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Brown 282 · Rush Wiggins 125 · Rec Riles 69 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #128 | #108 | −8.5✓ +12.5 | Northern Illinois | W 35-14 130 | 3-1 | 0-0 | Pass Brown 148 · Rush McCrary Jr. 111 · Rec Dorsey 114 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #117 | #90 | −1.5✓ +30.5 | Old Dominion | W 42-10 130 | 4-1 | 1-0 | Pass Brown 284 · Rush Wiggins 87 · Rec Avery Jr. 91 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #89 | #37 | +7.5✗ −19.5 | @James Madison | L 22-49 134 | 4-2 | 1-1 | Pass Brown 134 · Rush Brown 71 · Rec Dorsey 57 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #96 | #120 | −2.5✗ −8.5 | @Arkansas State | L 32-38 126 | 4-3 | 1-2 | Pass Pereira 163 · Rush Wiggins 99 · Rec Dorsey 85 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #104 | #160 | −3.5✗ −14.5 | Coastal Carolina | L 20-31 137 | 4-4 | 1-3 | Pass Pereira 200 · Rush Wiggins 96 · Rec Hollier 52 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #117 | #109 | +5.5 | @App State | 2:30 pm ET43% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #123 | #69 | Georgia Southern | time TBA31% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Marshall | time TBA37% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Louisiana | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Georgia State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Georgia State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Coastal Carolina | L 20-31 | 360 | 1 | 27:33 | +0.045 | 34.2% | 1.30 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | @Arkansas State | L 32-38 | 429 | 2 | 28:33 | +0.238 | 45.9% | 1.35 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 17 | @James Madison | L 22-49 | 373 | 2 | 30:09 | +0.070 | 48.5% | 0.85 | |
| Oct 3 | Old Dominion | W 42-10 | 470 | 1 | 34:32 | +0.178 | 43.7% | 1.25 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 26 | Northern Illinois | W 35-14 | 342 | 2 | 26:49 | +0.234 | 43.1% | 1.55 | Most explosive |
| Sep 19 | @UCF | L 30-44 | 485 | 3 | 33:20 | +0.049 | 40.2% | 1.48 | |
| Sep 12 | @Kennesaw State | W 31-17 | 483 | 2 | 37:47 | +0.257 | 50.0% | 1.15 | |
| Sep 4 | North Carolina A&T | W 59-10 | 563 | 0 | 32:46 | +0.507 | 59.2% | 1.12 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 438 | 1.6 | +0.197 | 45.6% | 1.25 | ||||
Georgia State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last three.
The open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
Georgia State, under Dell McGee's third season, seeks to revive its 2010 founding identity after a 1-11 losing record that contrasts sharply with its historic Atlanta-FBS-newcomer-football legacy.
Statusbackground
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Georgia State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 20%; 5 wins 41%; 6 wins 29%; 7 wins 9%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Sun Belt teams the same season
Georgia State plays its home games inside the stadium where the Braves won pennants, a 2010 startup still trying to convince its own enormous city that a downtown-Atlanta college team is worth a Saturday.
Everyone in the metro grew up a Georgia or Georgia Tech fan; Panther fans are the ones who chose the new thing, and they're tired of being told a 2010 startup downtown can't be anybody's real team.
Georgia State · Game-day weather
Typical at Center Parc Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 95, 3:30 pm Saturdays 86
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Georgia State is the Sun Belt program whose 2010 program founding + Center Parc Stadium (former Turner Field) + Shawn Elliott era define what Atlanta-FBS-newcomer-football looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Georgia State · 2026