The rest of the season
One real test left: South Alabama 69%
Win out 48% · expect 3.4 of 4 more wins
Louisiana's chance to win each game left, from our model: South Alabama 69%, UL Monroe 96%, Coastal Carolina 88%, Georgia State 82%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Conference title chance went from 12% to 12%, peaking at 24% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 4th in the Sun Belt · 2-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing D'Wayne' Winfield 1,457 · Rushing D'Wayne' Winfield 464 · Receiving Kedarius Wade 279 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #35 | #149 | −20.5✓ +10.5 | Lamar | W 38-7 128 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Winfield 189 · Rush Smith 84 · Rec Jensen 77 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #35 | #30 | +30.5✓ +11.5 | @USC | L 30-49 123 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Winfield 212 · Rush Winfield 91 · Rec Babineaux 91 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #34 | #58 | −7= | UAB | W 21-14 131 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Winfield 110 · Rush Winfield 91 · Rec Strother 41 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #34 | #163 | −9.5✓ +17.5 | @Charlotte | W 34-7 123 | 3-1 | 0-0 | Pass Winfield 149 · Rush Smith 43 · Rec Chaney 44 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #33 | #152 | −4.5✗ −1.5 | Arkansas State | W 23-20 117 | 4-1 | 1-0 | Pass Winfield 189 · Rush Garner 78 · Rec Wade 36 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #35 | #85 | +3✓ +2 | @Louisiana Tech | L 31-32 135 | 4-2 | 1-1 | Pass Winfield 239 · Rush Garner 36 · Rec Wade 88 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #38 | #101 | −3✓ +24 | Troy | W 33-6 126 | 5-2 | 2-1 | Pass Winfield 70 · Rush Winfield 65 · Rec Chaney 45 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #38 | #127 | −11.5✗ −15.5 | @Southern Miss | L 31-35 162 | 5-3 | 2-2 | Pass Winfield 299 · Rush Garner 52 · Rec Sampson Jr. 58 |
| 9 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | #40 | #99 | −8.5 | South Alabama | 5 pm ET69% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 12 | #41 | #210 | @UL Monroe | 9 pm ET · ESPN296% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Coastal Carolina | time TBA88% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Georgia State | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Louisiana, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Louisiana: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | @Southern Miss | L 31-35 | 417 | 1 | 34:17 | -0.050 | 40.2% | 1.12 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | Troy | W 33-6 | 351 | 0 | 36:39 | +0.120 | 45.3% | 1.00 | |
| Oct 10 | @Louisiana Tech | L 31-32 | 399 | 3 | 26:42 | +0.082 | 35.1% | 1.78 | Most explosive |
| Oct 3 | Arkansas State | W 23-20 | 435 | 1 | 34:08 | +0.296 | 56.9% | 0.91 | Best success rate |
| Sep 26 | @Charlotte | W 34-7 | 292 | 1 | 40:53 | -0.035 | 39.5% | 0.99 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 19 | UAB | W 21-14 | 335 | 2 | 35:23 | +0.057 | 35.2% | 1.08 | One-score win |
| Sep 12 | @USC | L 30-49 | 358 | 0 | 26:46 | +0.313 | 41.5% | 1.58 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Lamar | W 38-7 | 474 | 3 | 33:38 | +0.305 | 54.4% | 1.16 | Blowout win |
| Season average (8 games) | 383 | 1.4 | +0.136 | 43.5% | 1.20 | ||||
Louisiana's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Root for Southern Miss over James Madison
Thu 8 pm · Moves Louisiana’s conference title chance by 6 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
Louisiana Sun Belt championship odds lengthened, from 10.5% to 3.8% (down 6.7 points) between Oct 25 and Oct 26, 2026.
Statusbackground
Range of outcomes · Louisiana · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 1%; 7 wins 11%; 8 wins 40%; 9 wins 48%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
Louisiana Sun Belt championship odds lengthened, from 10.5% to 3.8% (down 6.7 points) between Oct 25 and Oct 26, 2026. The win total is down 0.1. The market moved and the fan conversation hasn't caught up. Little discussion of a line move usually means the information arrived before the coverage did. Discussion is thin, and the market moved faster than the reaction.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The 'market knows something fans don't' read: when odds move, it's on information.
The 'markets overcorrect' counter: lines move on noise too; the receipts may not hold.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 24 of 118 board posts (20%) over the last 60 days, a large share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Sun Belt teams the same season
Louisiana won four straight Sun Belt titles when Billy Napier was in Lafayette — and has spent every year since trying to prove the dynasty was the program, not the man who left for Florida.
Fans point to four straight conference titles and a top-20 ranking and ask why the national conversation still files them under generic Sun Belt mid-pack — as if the best run any Sun Belt program…
Louisiana · Game-day weather
Typical at Cajun Field: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 95, noon Saturdays 78
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 114 at noon, 114 at 3:30 pm, 113 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Louisiana is the Sun Belt program whose 2018-2021 Billy Napier 4-consecutive-Sun-Belt-championships + Cajun Field + Ragin' Cajuns identity define what Lafayette-Sun-Belt-football looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence higher than any point since 2020
93rd percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Louisiana · 2026