Southern Miss upsets Louisiana 35-31
Team pages: Louisiana · Southern Miss
Southern Miss beat Louisiana 35-31 as an 11.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 9%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 9% or less in about 1 of every 13 games since 2018.
We had Louisiana favored. Southern Miss won.
Next: Louisiana vs South Alabama, Sat Nov 7
Next: Southern Miss at UL Monroe, Sat Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Southern Miss favored by 3
How it swung
The turning point: Wilder 16-yd TD run, Southern Miss goes ahead 35-31 (Q4, 0:58). Southern Miss went from 18% to 78% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Southern Miss an 8% chance, and the closing betting line (Southern Miss was a 11.5-point underdog) put it at 18%.
Southern Miss · Q4 10:05Southern Miss 35-31 Louisiana
Southern Miss wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Louisiana 31-35 Southern MissLouisiana lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 10:05InterceptionPeavy 0-yd interception return TD, ties it 28-28Southern Miss 10% → 34% (+24)
- 2Q4 0:58Wilder 16-yd TD run, Southern Miss goes ahead 35-31Southern Miss 18% → 78% (+60)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 10:05InterceptionPeavy 0-yd interception return TD, ties it 28-28Louisiana 90% → 66% (−24)
- 2Q4 0:58Wilder 16-yd TD run, Southern Miss goes ahead 35-31Louisiana 82% → 22% (−60)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Louisiana -11.5), at 27% for Southern Miss (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Southern Miss scored on 4 of its 15 drives; Louisiana on 5 of its 15.
Southern Miss’s drives are teal, Louisiana’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Louisiana’s side
Louisiana’s best moment: Garner 42-yd TD run, ties it 14-14 (Q2 9:53). It lifted Louisiana’s win chance by 15 points.
The winner fell to 9%.
What it cost
Louisiana’s chance to make the playoff fell from 2% to 0%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Louisiana plays vs South Alabama on Sat Nov 7 with a 0% chance to make the playoff. Southern Miss plays at UL Monroe on Sat Oct 31 with a 2% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Southern Miss 35, Louisiana 31
Southern Miss covered +11.5 by 15.5. The total, 66, went over 52.5.
| Team totals | Louisiana | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 417 | 450 |
| Passing | 22 of 41, 299 yds | 21 of 38, 164 yds |
| Rushing | 40 for 118 yds | 43 for 286 yds |
| First downs | 21 | 24 |
| Third down | 7 of 18 | 4 of 16 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 3 | 4 of 7 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Penalties | 7 for 65 yds | 6 for 58 yds |
| Time of possession | 34:17 | 25:43 |
Louisiana leaders
- Passing D'Wayne' Winfield 22 of 41, 299 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing JJ Garner 7 for 52 yds, 1 TD; Steven Blanco 13 for 33 yds
- Receiving Shelton Sampson Jr. 5 for 58 yds; Caden Jensen 3 for 55 yds
Southern Miss leaders
- Passing Landy Lyddy 21 of 38, 164 yds
- Rushing Jamarice Wilder 13 for 154 yds, 1 TD; Steven Robinson 22 for 145 yds, 3 TD
- Receiving Mario Sanders II 6 for 77 yds; Davis Dalton 3 for 18 yds
No rain and calm
80° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 7 mph from the east-northeast, gusts to 18
October game-day temperatures at M. M. Roberts Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Hattiesburg Muni airport, 6.4 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Louisiana · 5-2
Rated 35th in our preseason ratings, 38th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Southern Miss · 1-5
Rated 57th in our preseason ratings, 127th now.
Three straight losses.
Week by week
Southern Miss
- Wk 2Lat Auburn8-43
- Wk 3Lvs UConn20-48
- Wk 4Lat Tulane21-24
- Wk 6Lat Troy34-55
- Wk 7Lvs Arkansas State13-23
Louisiana
- Wk 3Wvs UAB21-14
- Wk 4Wat Charlotte34-7
- Wk 5Wvs Arkansas State23-20
- Wk 6Lat Louisiana Tech31-32
- Wk 7Wvs Troy33-6
Power rating by week
Louisiana is rated 10.0 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Southern Miss’s EPA/play against Louisiana, 77 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Southern Miss’s EPA/play against Louisiana’s defense
Southern Miss offense, 13th percentile · Louisiana defense, 90th
Southern Miss’s explosive plays against Louisiana’s defense
Southern Miss offense, 34th percentile · Louisiana defense, 99th
Southern Miss’s passing EPA against Louisiana’s defense
Southern Miss offense, 16th percentile · Louisiana defense, 71st
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Southern Miss leads the series 24-5
29 meetings since 1953 · Southern Miss won the last meeting
- 2025Southern Miss 22-10
- 2024Louisiana 23-13
- 2023Southern Miss 34-31
- 2022Southern Miss 39-24
- 2016 · neutral siteSouthern Miss 28-21
Each line is Southern Miss’s chance to win through that meeting. Southern Miss is 2-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Louisiana fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (93rd percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 8%
- Line · 18%
- Southern Miss fans · 59th
- Louisiana fans · 93rd
Louisiana favored by 11.5 · Total 52.5
How games like this usually go
Louisiana by 11.5, on the usual path until 0:58 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 415 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Louisiana.
Spread: +10.5 → +11.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Southern Miss is worth +3.5 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 37th percentile.
36% at home, 28% on the road against FBS opponents (16-28 home, 13-34 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.6 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 178 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Southern Miss 34, Louisiana 31Nov 9, 2023
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Southern Miss14th0-2
- Louisiana6th2-1