Louisiana beats UAB 21-14

Team pages: UAB · Louisiana

UAB1-214
Louisiana2-121Final
Sat, Sep 19 · Cajun Field, Lafayette, La. · Crowd 18,216ESPN+

Louisiana beat UAB 21-14.

We had Louisiana favored. It won.

Next: UAB beat Navy 24-20, Fri Sep 25

Next: Louisiana beat Charlotte 34-7, Sat Sep 26

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Louisiana a 76% chance, and the closing betting line (Louisiana was a 7-point favorite) put it at 71%.

Favored the whole way: Louisiana never fell below 67%.

UAB never had better than a 32% chance.

FinalLouisiana 21-14 UABLouisiana wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q495% at halfLouisianaWon21-1412+12+14Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q495% at halfLouisianaWon21-1412Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q45% at halfUABLouisianaLost14-2112−12−14Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q45% at halfUABLouisianaLost14-2112Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 12:34PenaltyWinfield 2-yd run; face mask on UABLouisiana 68% → 80% (+12)
  2. 2Q4 1:54Fumble4th and 2Burton run for a 16-yd loss, fumbles, turnover on downsLouisiana 85% → 99% (+14)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 12:34PenaltyWinfield 2-yd run; face mask on UABUAB 32% → 20% (−12)
  2. 2Q4 1:54Fumble4th and 2Burton run for a 16-yd loss, fumbles, turnover on downsUAB 15% → 1% (−14)
Louisiana’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Louisiana -7), at 68% for Louisiana (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Louisiana’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q2, 0:44Winfield 11-yd TD runLouisiana leads 21-7Q2, 0:44 · Louisiana 21, UAB 7▲8%Louisiana’s chance to win, 87% to 95%▲8%Louisiana’s chance to win, 87% to 95%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q4, 8:59Rogers 11-yd TD runcuts it to 21-14Q4, 8:59 · Louisiana 21, UAB 14▼2%Louisiana’s chance to win, 96% to 94%▼2%Louisiana’s chance to win, 96% to 94%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q4, 7:17Winfield sacked for a 3-yd lossQ4, 7:17 · Louisiana 21, UAB 1421-14score after the play21-14score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

Louisiana scored on 3 of its 13 drives; UAB on 1 of its 12.

Louisiana’s drives are teal, UAB’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Louisiana: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownUAB: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 56DownsLouisiana: Fumble, from 70 yards out to 59FumbleUAB: Punt, from 85 yards out to 81PuntLouisiana: Touchdown, from 40 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2UAB: Interception, from 75 yards out to 72InterceptionLouisiana: Punt, from 81 yards out to 68PuntUAB: Punt, from 84 yards out to 66PuntLouisiana: Fumble returned for a touchdown, from 79 yards out to 100Fumble TDLouisiana: Turned over on downs, from 77 yards out to 36DownsUAB: Punt, from 64 yards out to 25PuntLouisiana: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownUAB: End of half, from 75 yards out to 53End of halfQ3UAB: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 47DownsLouisiana: Punt, from 53 yards out to 48PuntUAB: Punt, from 93 yards out to 82PuntLouisiana: Punt, from 67 yards out to 42PuntUAB: Punt, from 92 yards out to 89PuntLouisiana: Punt, from 65 yards out to 59PuntUAB: Turned over on downs, from 78 yards out to 4DownsQ4Louisiana: Punt, from 96 yards out to 87PuntUAB: Touchdown, from 13 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 33FumbleUAB: Turned over on downs, from 82 yards out to 62DownsLouisiana: End of game, from 38 yards out to 27End of game

What it cost

Louisiana’s chance to win the conference rose from 24% to 25%.

Win the conference

UAB · lost3% → 3%
Louisiana · won24% → ▲25%24%▲ 25%

Before the game (September 19, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Louisiana 21, UAB 14

The game landed on the closing spread. The total, 35, stayed under 55.5.

UABLouisianaTotal yardsUAB 218Louisiana 335218335Passing yardsUAB 144Louisiana 110144110Rushing yardsUAB 74Louisiana 22574225First downsUAB 11Louisiana 211121TurnoversUAB 1Louisiana 212Time of possessionUAB 24:37Louisiana 35:2324:3735:23
Team totalsUABLouisiana
Total yards218335
Passing15 of 27, 144 yds15 of 20, 110 yds
Rushing31 for 74 yds53 for 225 yds
First downs1121
Third down2 of 126 of 16
Fourth down0 of 42 of 3
Turnovers12
Penalties9 for 89 yds7 for 50 yds
Time of possession24:3735:23

UAB leaders

  • Passing Ryder Burton 15 of 25, 144 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Roderick Robinson II 13 for 52 yds; Nate Rogers 2 for 13 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Tiaquelin Mims 4 for 57 yds; C.J. Smith 2 for 28 yds

Louisiana leaders

  • Passing D'Wayne' Winfield 15 of 20, 110 yds
  • Rushing D'Wayne' Winfield 19 for 91 yds, 2 TD; Steven Blanco 11 for 55 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Landon Strother 5 for 41 yds; Russell Babineaux 4 for 20 yds

No rain and calm

87° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 2 mph from the south-southeast, gusts to 7

September game-day temperatures at Cajun Field

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Louisiana favoredUAB favored100%Win chanceLouisianaRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Louisiana favoredUAB favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:47 left7:06 p.m.
UAB 0, Louisiana 0 · Louisiana 68% to win
no rain · wind 1 mph from the southeast · 86°
Smith 5-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Lafayette airport, 3.3 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

UAB · 1-1

Rated 55th in our preseason ratings, 58th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 26-20 vs UL Monroe #161 of 668

won by 6 as a 9.5-point favorite

UAB won 26-20 vs UL Monroe. Chance to win started at 78%, low 31%, high better than 99%.

L 23-42 @ Illinois #68 of 668

lost by 19 as a 25.5-point underdog

UAB lost 23-42 at Illinois. Chance to win started at 4%, low under 1%, high 6%.

Last two games

Louisiana · 1-1

Rated 35th in our preseason ratings, 34th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 30-49 @ USCTop 25 #26 of 668

lost by 19 as a 30.5-point underdog

Louisiana lost 30-49 at USC. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 4%.

W 38-7 vs Lamar #143 of 668

won by 31 as a 20.5-point favorite

Louisiana won 38-7 vs Lamar. Chance to win started at 92%, low 90%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Louisiana

Wk 1: W 38-7 vs Lamar▲31LamarWk 2: L 30-49 at USC▼19USC
  • Wk 1Wvs Lamar38-7
  • Wk 2Lat USC30-49

UAB

Wk 1: L 23-42 at Illinois▼19IllinoisWk 2: W 26-20 vs UL Monroe▲6UL Monroe
  • Wk 1Lat Illinois23-42
  • Wk 2Wvs UL Monroe26-20

Power rating by week

Louisiana is rated 3.2 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

641Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2LouisianaUAB

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: UAB’s EPA/play against Louisiana, 76 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. UAB’s EPA/play against Louisiana’s defense

    76 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UAB offense, 16th percentile · Louisiana defense, 92nd

  2. UAB’s explosive plays against Louisiana’s defense

    69 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UAB offense, 31st percentile · Louisiana defense, 100th

  3. UAB’s rushing EPA against Louisiana’s defense

    62 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UAB offense, 37th percentile · Louisiana defense, 99th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

UABLouisiana
EPA/play, offense
UAB · 16Louisiana · 53
EPA/play, defense
UAB · 61Louisiana · 92
Success rate, offense
UAB · 40Louisiana · 55
Success rate, defense
UAB · 18Louisiana · 55
Explosive-play rate, offense
UAB · 31Louisiana · 40
Explosive-play rate, defense
UAB · 95Louisiana · 100
Rush EPA, offense
UAB · 37Louisiana · 76
Rush EPA, defense
UAB · 27Louisiana · 99
Pass EPA, offense
UAB · 6Louisiana · 49
Pass EPA, defense
UAB · 84Louisiana · 50

The series

The series is tied 4-4

8 meetings since 1995 · Louisiana has won the last 3

Louisiana wonUAB won1995: Louisiana by 351996: UAB by 101997: UAB by 351998: UAB by 112000: UAB by 452002: Louisiana by 342020: Louisiana by 42023: Louisiana by 2019952023
  • 2023Louisiana 41-21Louisiana won 41-21 at UAB. Chance to win started at 46%, low 37%, high better than 99%.
  • 2020Louisiana 24-20Louisiana won 24-20 at UAB. Chance to win started at 57%, low 13%, high 95%.
  • 2002Louisiana 34-0
  • 2000UAB 47-2
  • 1998UAB 24-13

Each line is Louisiana’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Louisiana fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (96th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

50-50Model 76% · Line 71%Louisiana fans · 96thUAB fans · 61stUABLouisiana

Louisiana favored by 7 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

Louisiana by 7, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward UAB.

opened −10now −7

The total fell 4 points.

opened 59.5now 55.5

Spread: −10 → −7 · Total: 59.5 → 55.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 89° at kickoff.

UAB at Louisiana · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Cajun Field, Lafayette

  • 89°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 81weather score, Mixed
  • Bestof the day's 8 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the best of the day's eight kickoff times. At Cajun Field that day, a 2:30 pm kickoff would have scored 49, against 81 at 7 pm.

  • 11 am: 58, Rough
  • 11:45 am: 55, Rough
  • 1 pm: 51, Rough
  • 2:30 pm: 49, Harsh
  • 3:30 pm: 51, Rough
  • 6 pm: 72, Rough
  • 6:30 pm: 78, Mixed
  • 7 pm: 81, Mixed (this game)

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Louisiana is worth +4.3 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 53rd percentile.

73% at home, 60% on the road against FBS opponents (32-12 home, 31-21 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.6 at home vs. away over 103 games — inside the ±5.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 383 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next