Illinois beats UAB 42-23

UAB0-123
Illinois1-042Final
Thu, Sep 3 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL), Champaign, Ill. · Crowd 52,673BTN

Illinois beat UAB 42-23.

We had Illinois favored. It won.

Top comment in the game thread

Uh oh. The video board is not going to like being upstaged by a pick-6.

Q4 5:48 · r/CFB game thread · Thu, Sep 3

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Illinois a 60% chance, and the closing betting line (Illinois was a 25.5-point favorite) put it at 98%.

Favored the whole way: Illinois never fell below 93%.

UAB never had better than a 6% chance.

Pick-sixIllinois · Q4 5:48
FinalIllinois 42-23 UABIllinois wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4IllinoisWon42-23ScoresIllinoisUABIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 2 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 2 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 2 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minute
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4IllinoisWon42-23ScoresIllinoisUABIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 2 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 2 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 2 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4IllinoisLowest 0%Lost23-42ScoresUABIllinoisUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 2 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 2 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 2 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4IllinoisLowest 0%Lost23-42ScoresUABIllinoisUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 2 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 2 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 2 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 0 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteUAB fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 0 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 4 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 1 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 5 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 6 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 2 comments a minuteIllinois fans: 3 comments a minute

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q1 4:36Officials rule no DPI on Burton's deep pass to Smith despite fan outrageGuys the commentators are wrong, whether the ball was tipped has been reviewable on DPI plays for at least the last few yearsr/CFB game thread
  2. Q4 5:48Kante returns interception 59 yards for touchdown, making it 42-16Quoted at the top of the page.
Illinois’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Illinois -25.5), at 96% for Illinois (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Illinois or UAB flair (505 and 118); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Illinois’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 7:55Houser 18-yd TD pass to DixonIllinois goes ahead 7-0Q1, 7:55 · Illinois 7, UAB 07-0score after the play7-0score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  2. Q1, 1:18Valentine 51-yd TD runIllinois leads 14-3Q1, 1:18 · Illinois 14, UAB 314-3score after the play14-3score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  3. Q2, 0:18Burton 10-yd TD pass to Robinsoncuts it to 14-13Q2, 0:18 · Illinois 14, UAB 1314-13score after the play14-13score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  4. Q2, 0:00Houser 54-yd TD pass to RobinsonIllinois leads 21-13Q2, 0:00 · Illinois 21, UAB 13▲2%Illinois’s chance to win, 96% to 98%▲2%Illinois’s chance to win, 96% to 98%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  5. Q3, 10:15Houser 14-yd TD pass to DixonIllinois leads 28-13Q3, 10:15 · Illinois 28, UAB 1328-13score after the play28-13score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  6. Q4, 12:25Houser 6-yd TD runIllinois leads 35-16Q4, 12:25 · Illinois 35, UAB 1635-16score after the play35-16score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  7. Q4, 5:48Kante 59-yd interception return TDIllinois leads 42-16Q4, 5:48 · Illinois 42, UAB 1642-16score after the play42-16score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  8. Q4, 0:09Burton 5-yd TD runcuts it to 42-23Q4, 0:09 · Illinois 42, UAB 2342-23score after the play42-23score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX

Every drive

Illinois scored on 5 of its 8 drives; UAB on 5 of its 8.

Illinois’s drives are teal, UAB’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1UAB: Punt, from 75 yards out to 50PuntIllinois: Touchdown, from 30 yards out to 0TouchdownUAB: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 8Field goalIllinois: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownUAB: Punt, from 75 yards out to 54PuntQ2Illinois: Punt, from 98 yards out to 92PuntUAB: Field goal, from 31 yards out to 4Field goalIllinois: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 50DownsUAB: Touchdown, from 50 yards out to 0TouchdownIllinois: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0TouchdownQ3Illinois: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownUAB: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 17Field goalIllinois: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4UAB: Interception returned for a touchdown, from 75 yards out to 31Interception TDUAB: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownIllinois: End of game, from 75 yards out to 76End of game
“Haha CFB is the best man”
A fan of another team

When fans got loud

Busy

Fans saved their loudest stretch for the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.

FirstSecondThirdFourthIllinois fansUAB fansusual

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

UAB fans

dilfer“Gotta love the team carrying on Dilfer’s tradition of being the most penalized team in the country 🥹”

Box score

Illinois 42, UAB 23

UAB covered +25.5 by 6.5. The total, 65, went over 53.5.

UABIllinoisTotal yardsUAB 413Illinois 332413332Passing yardsUAB 219Illinois 182219182Rushing yardsUAB 194Illinois 150194150First downsUAB 24Illinois 172417TurnoversUAB 1Illinois 010Time of possessionUAB 41:03Illinois 18:5741:0318:57
Team totalsUABIllinois
Total yards413332
Passing18 of 31, 219 yds13 of 17, 182 yds
Rushing48 for 194 yds26 for 150 yds
First downs2417
Third down10 of 193 of 6
Fourth down3 of 41 of 2
Turnovers10
Penalties9 for 69 yds1 for 4 yds
Time of possession41:0318:57

UAB leaders

  • Passing Ryder Burton 18 of 31, 219 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Roderick Robinson II 14 for 59 yds; Braylon McReynolds 13 for 56 yds
  • Receiving C.J. Smith 2 for 57 yds; Tiaquelin Mims 4 for 52 yds

Illinois leaders

  • Passing Katin Houser 13 of 17, 182 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Ca'Lil Valentine 11 for 88 yds, 1 TD; Katin Houser 3 for 29 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Collin Dixon 6 for 70 yds, 2 TD; Ty Robinson 1 for 54 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

81° at kickoff · no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Illinois favoredUAB favored100%Win chanceIllinoisRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Illinois favoredUAB favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:52 left8:16 p.m.
UAB 0, Illinois 0 · Illinois 96% to win
no rain · 80°
Robinson 13-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Champaign - Willard airport, 5.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

UAB · 4-8

Rated 55th in our preseason ratings.

W 31-24 @ Tulsa #147 of 667

won by 7 as a 9.5-point underdog

UAB won 31-24 at Tulsa. Chance to win started at 19%, low 9%, high 85%.

L 18-48 vs South FloridaTop 25 #23 of 667

lost by 30 as a 22.5-point underdog

UAB lost 18-48 vs South Florida. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 23%.

L 24-53 vs North TexasTop 25 #39 of 667

lost by 29 as a 17.5-point underdog

UAB lost 24-53 vs North Texas. Chance to win started at 16%, low under 1%, high 17%.

L 17-24 @ Rice #165 of 667

lost by 7 as a 1.5-point underdog

UAB lost 17-24 at Rice. Chance to win started at 39%, low under 1%, high 58%.

L 19-38 @ UConn #70 of 667

lost by 19 as a 10.5-point underdog

W 31-24 vs MemphisTop 25 #41 of 667

won by 7 as a 23.5-point underdog

UAB won 31-24 vs Memphis. Chance to win started at 9%, low 7%, high 97%.

L 33-53 @ Florida Atlantic #94 of 667

lost by 20 as a 5.5-point underdog

UAB lost 33-53 at Florida Atlantic. Chance to win started at 27%, low under 1%, high 30%.

L 13-31 vs Army #108 of 667

lost by 18 as a 6.5-point underdog

UAB lost 13-31 vs Army. Chance to win started at 41%, low under 1%, high 51%.

L 24-56 @ TennesseeTop 25 #10 of 667

lost by 32 as a 38.5-point underdog

UAB lost 24-56 at Tennessee. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

W 31-28 vs Akron #162 of 667

won by 3 as a 13.5-point favorite

UAB won 31-28 vs Akron. Chance to win started at 93%, low 71%, high better than 99%.

L 24-38 @ NavyTop 25 #95 of 667

lost by 14 as a 22.5-point underdog

UAB lost 24-38 at Navy. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 18%.

W 52-42 vs Alabama State #144 of 667

won by 10 as a 21.5-point favorite

UAB won 52-42 vs Alabama State. Chance to win started at 95%, low 58%, high better than 99%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Illinois · 9-4

Rated 70th in our preseason ratings.

W 30-28 vs TennesseeTop 25 #21 of 667

won by 2 as a 3-point underdog

Illinois won 30-28 vs Tennessee. Chance to win started at 52%, low 27%, high better than 99%.

W 20-13 vs Northwestern #64 of 667

won by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite

Illinois won 20-13 vs Northwestern. Chance to win started at 79%, low 50%, high better than 99%.

L 10-27 @ Wisconsin #64 of 667

lost by 17 as an 8.5-point favorite

Illinois lost 10-27 at Wisconsin. Chance to win started at 65%, low under 1%, high 74%.

W 24-6 vs Maryland #85 of 667

won by 18 as a 15.5-point favorite

Illinois won 24-6 vs Maryland. Chance to win started at 89%, low 81%, high better than 99%.

W 35-13 vs Rutgers #84 of 667

won by 22 as a 12.5-point favorite

Illinois won 35-13 vs Rutgers. Chance to win started at 85%, low 79%, high better than 99%.

L 25-42 @ WashingtonTop 25 #20 of 667

lost by 17 as a 3.5-point underdog

Illinois lost 25-42 at Washington. Chance to win started at 30%, low under 1%, high 49%.

L 16-34 vs Ohio StateTop 25 #1 of 667

lost by 18 as a 15.5-point underdog

Illinois lost 16-34 vs Ohio State. Chance to win started at 18%, low under 1%, high 19%.

W 43-27 @ Purdue #84 of 667

won by 16 as a 7.5-point favorite

Illinois won 43-27 at Purdue. Chance to win started at 62%, low 35%, high better than 99%.

W 34-32 vs USCTop 25 #16 of 667

won by 2 as a 6.5-point underdog

Illinois won 34-32 vs USC. Chance to win started at 45%, low 30%, high better than 99%.

L 10-63 @ IndianaTop 25 #20 of 667

lost by 53 as a 7.5-point underdog

Illinois lost 10-63 at Indiana. Chance to win started at 23%, low under 1%, high 29%.

W 38-0 vs Western Michigan #137 of 667

won by 38 as a 27.5-point favorite

Illinois won 38-0 vs Western Michigan. Chance to win started at 97%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

W 45-19 @ Duke #68 of 667

won by 26 as a 2.5-point favorite

Illinois won 45-19 at Duke. Chance to win started at 47%, low 37%, high better than 99%.

W 52-3 vs Western Illinois #240 of 667

won by 49 as a 48.5-point favorite

Illinois won 52-3 vs Western Illinois. Never in doubt.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Illinois’s success rate against UAB, 74 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Illinois’s success rate against UAB’s defense

    74 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Illinois offense, 92nd percentile · UAB defense, 18th

  2. Illinois’s rushing EPA against UAB’s defense

    59 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Illinois offense, 86th percentile · UAB defense, 27th

  3. Illinois’s explosive plays against UAB’s defense

    35 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Illinois offense, 60th percentile · UAB defense, 95th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

UABIllinois
EPA/play, offense
UAB · 16Illinois · 84
EPA/play, defense
UAB · 61Illinois · 5
Success rate, offense
UAB · 40Illinois · 92
Success rate, defense
UAB · 18Illinois · 11
Explosive-play rate, offense
UAB · 31Illinois · 60
Explosive-play rate, defense
UAB · 95Illinois · 35
Rush EPA, offense
UAB · 37Illinois · 86
Rush EPA, defense
UAB · 27Illinois · 24
Pass EPA, offense
UAB · 6Illinois · 78
Pass EPA, defense
UAB · 84Illinois · 5

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

UAB fans are in a better mood than Illinois fans (69th vs 36th among FBS fanbases), even with Illinois favored.

  • Model · 60%
  • Line · 98%
  • Illinois fans · 36th
  • UAB fans · 69th

Illinois favored by 25.5 · Total 53.5

How games like this usually go

Illinois by 25.5: the game against the usual path

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward UAB.

opened −27.5now −25.5

Spread: −27.5 → −25.5

The books’ cut: 3.5%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Illinois is worth +3.1 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 31st percentile.

52% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (26-24 home, 18-23 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.0 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 461 miles to get here.

Where next