North Texas

1-1

American Athletic · Neal Brown, year 1 (1-1) · DATCU Stadium · 30,850 · 20,331 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#105 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #115 (-13.2) · FPI #63
The marketTexas State by 3at Texas State · our model 19% North Texas · a number, not a pick

LastW 44–6 vs UNLV · Sat Sep 12 · Jahiem White 124 rush yds, 1 TD, 34 rec yds

Nextat Texas State · Sat Sep 19 · 12 pm ET · Bobcat Stadium (TX) · Texas State by 3 · series 0-1 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

North Texas · 2026 schedule & results1-1
WkDateUsOppLineOpponentResultRecordConf
1Sep 5#135#8+40.5@IndianaL 16–52 1130-10-0
2Sep 12#123#89+3UNLVW 44–6 1391-10-0
3Sep 19#121#32+3@Texas State
4Sep 26#119#221Houston Christian
5Oct 2@Tulsa
6Oct 10Charlotte
8Oct 24@Navy
9Oct 29Florida Atlantic
10Nov 7Rice
11Nov 14@UTSA
12Nov 21@Tulane
13Nov 28UAB
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Explosive%Note
Sep 12UNLVW 44–6444032:15+0.34544.9%135.1%
Sep 5@IndianaL 16–52367137:22+0.13534.8%154.8%
Season average (2 games)4060.5+0.24039.9%145.0%
Verdict Begins·Live

North Texas is the program named for Joe Greene's 'Mean Green' that broke a 66-year ranking drought in 2025 — 12 wins, a poll appearance, and then the coach who built it gone to Oklahoma State before the celebration ended.

Title DroughtSince 2004 · 22 yrs

Fans note that the moment North Texas finally got good — the first ranking since 1959, 12 wins, a Burlsworth Trophy quarterback — a power-conference school simply reached down and took the coach and t…

low signal
Read the full program story ↓

The season in chapters

What fans said

Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown

What it is like to watch them2025 · 12-2 · last season

Game feel72shootoutscombined pts / game1st highest-scoring of 14 in the American Athletic
Heart rate3-0rarely closein one-score games (3 of 14)12th most one-score games of 14 in the American Athletic
Margin+18.6comfortableavg scoring margin1st best margin of 14 in the American Athletic
Tempo69average paceoffensive plays / game6th fastest of 13 in the American Athletic
Big plays1.33highlight reelexplosiveness (IsoPPP)4th most explosive of 14 in the American Athletic
Home crowd24,493avg attendance6th biggest crowds of 14 in the American Athletic

✓ measured from 14 games · ranks are among American Athletic teams the same season

Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025

North Texas has won three of its last five.

Mixed. 8-2 over the last 10, and won the last one.

Streak W1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 8-2
North Texas is not the same team as last year. Coach Eric Morris and the majority of the team moved on to Oklahoma State
Feazel · FOX Sports3 days before North Texas's 2026 opener
The forecast

Next Sep 19

vs Texas State · away

EliteSolidBend-don't-break

~ our read on style

Market outlook

Season expectations

CFP championship#96 in field+100000
AAC title#10 in market+1000

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14

North Texas · the story right now 15 storylines developing

What North Texas's program standing is really about

the open questionis this a real, durable shift in the program's tier?

dynastythis cycle~readnew

Eric Morris' 12-2 season vaulted North Texas into dynasty territory, but the market projects just 6 wins — a skepticism gap after a historic G5 run.

what happenedNorth Texas has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 63% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 63% a year ago. ✓ fact
the contexta 22-15 record over the last three regular seasons

our readfront page

coaching2025 cycle~readnew

Neal Brown, who led West Virginia to a 12-2 season, inherits a 2% production returning roster at North Texas — the churn defines the challenge, not the name.

what happenedDrew Svoboda took over as North Texas's head coach, replacing Eric Morris. ✓ fact
the contextthe program's third head coach in five seasons

our readdeveloping

portal2025-05-06~readnew

Tayven Jackson arrives at North Texas as Eric Morris' second straight top-25 portal class aims to replace 82% of QB production after a historic 12-2 season.

what happenedNorth Texas signed a top-50 transfer-portal class — 34 additions headlined by Reese Poffenbarger (QB) from Miami and Isaiah Collins (CB) from Texas Tech. ✓ fact
the contextsecond consecutive top-30 portal class

our readbackground

identitythis cycle~readnew

Eric Morris enters his third season with a 12-2 record and a #23 AP finish, anchoring North Texas as the historic Texas G5 program redefining its identity in Conference USA.

what happenedNorth Texas: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact

our readdeveloping

portal2026-01-27~readnew

Eric Morris' top-2 portal class targets CB, DL, and EDGE — addressing the defensive gaps that followed key departures in a 12-2 season.

what happenedNorth Texas signed a top-29 transfer-portal class — 49 additions headlined by Tayven Jackson (QB) from UCF and Chaston Ditta (QB) from East Carolina. ✓ fact
the contexta top-2 portal class in the American Athletic this cycle

our readfront page

coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew

Neal Brown's first season at North Texas follows a 12-2 record, but the program's lower-tier status and coordinator reshaping raise questions about sustaining the AP's #23 finish.

what happenedNorth Texas: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact

our readdeveloping

coordinators2025 cycle~readnew

Neal Brown inherits a 12-2 winning record at North Texas, but the program's lower-tier status and coordinator reshapes raise questions about sustaining the Mean Green's historic G5 identity.

what happenedNorth Texas: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact

our readdeveloping

coachingthis cycle~readnew

Neal Brown, who led West Virginia to a 12-2 season, inherits a 2% production returning roster at North Texas — the program's third coach in five years, and the fanbase.

what happenedNeal Brown took over as North Texas's head coach, replacing Drew Svoboda. ✓ fact
the contextthe program's third head coach in five seasons

our readfront page

market_swing2026-07-11~readnew

Eric Morris enters his third season with a 12-2 record and a #23 AP finish, positioning North Texas to sustain its historic-Texas-G5-football identity as a rising middle-tier program.

what happenedNorth Texas win total fell from 6.5 to 5.5 (-1 wins) between Jul 10 and Jul 11, 2026 (tier C). ✓ fact
the contextwin total down 1.0 — crosses below bowl eligibility territory

our readdeveloping

garbage time2025 cycle✓ factnew

Caleb Hawkins does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps -- the production isn't just garbage-time padding.

our readdeveloping

garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew

Ashton Gray sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.

our readbackground

garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew

Kiefer Sibley: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.

our readbackground

deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew

Tre Williams III is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.

our readbackground

deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew

Wyatt Young is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.

our readbackground

garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew

Wyatt Young: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.

our readbackground

How past storylines here turned out

ReplacedNorth Texas moved on from that hire — a new coaching change began the following season. See who's next →
ReplacedNorth Texas's defensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →

Outcome band · North Texas · 2026

North Texas' most likely season is 5-7 — no postseason. The floor is 3-9; the ceiling is 8-5.

Floor3-9No postseason, 2 fewer wins.
Base5-7No postseason.
Ceiling8-5A bowl game.

Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.

How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
Following now · North Texas · Program power Confidence

The arrow is pointing up for North Texas — the data backs it.

North Texas has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 63% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 63% a year ago. It is a 22-15 record over the last three regular seasons. Three-year power ratings tell a structural story — the room is split on whether the schedule will confirm it.

bullish — but with real dissent where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics3 doubt takes
Believers9 bull takes
Developing2 new this week
yesterdayAAC title odds: +2600 → +1200 (▲4.0pp implied)
last weekNorth Texas releases depth chart — Reported
2 weeks agoNorth Texas names starting QB — Official
Aug 8Win total (line at 5.5) still unmoved 13d after "Jayden Becks dismissed for team rules violation"
Aug 7Win total (line at 5.5) still unmoved 12d after "Jayden Becks dismissed for team rules violation"
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Eric Morris' 12-2 season vaulted North Texas into dynasty territory, but the market projects just 6 wins — a skepticism gap after a historic G5 run.
Source of record: North Texas has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 63% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 63% a year ago — a 22-15 record over the last three regular seasons.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics dissent
📣Believers9 bullish/momentum items -- the case it's working.

The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.

“North Texas annihilates UNLV, 44-6, for Neal Brown’s first win”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
“North Texas rolls past UNLV 44-6 for Neal Brown's first win”
CBS Sports · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Niedermeier's Ninth Goal Lifts UNT to Road Win”
University of North Texas Athletics · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“'Hot Ones Versus' puts pair of North Texas football coaches in t” — the real counter.

The 'wait and see' counter -- power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.

“'Hot Ones Versus' puts pair of North Texas football coaches in the hot seats”
WFAA · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“‘Bad football’: 3 takeaways from UNLV’s lopsided loss at North Texas - Las Vegas Review-Journal”
news · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
Where it stands · North Texas · Coaching Confidence

The Drew Svoboda era at North Texas: where it actually stands.

Drew Svoboda took over as North Texas's head coach, replacing Eric Morris. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. The hire has receded from the front page. The roster and recruiting pipeline are the real measure now. The discourse has moved on; what's left is the quiet work of building something.

Developing2 new this week
yesterdayAAC title odds: +2600 → +1200 (▲4.0pp implied)
last weekNorth Texas releases depth chart — Reported
2 weeks agoNorth Texas names starting QB — Official
Aug 8Win total (line at 5.5) still unmoved 13d after "Jayden Becks dismissed for team rules violation"
Aug 7Win total (line at 5.5) still unmoved 12d after "Jayden Becks dismissed for team rules violation"
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Drew Svoboda Head coach
Eric Morris Out
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Neal Brown, who led West Virginia to a 12-2 season, inherits a 2% production returning roster at North Texas — the churn defines the challenge, not the name.
Source of record: Drew Svoboda took over as North Texas's head coach, replacing Eric Morris — the program's third head coach in five seasons.
Where things stand — tap to expand
Skeptics no dissentThe Dominoes active
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

🔗The dominoes5 downstream moves — the hire's knock-on effects.

The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.

“North Texas gameday: UNT hopes deep transfer class can lead way to win over UNLV”
sports.yahoo.com · 2026-09-11 · read ↗
““Extremely Underwhelming”: CFB World Reacts to Curt Cignetti’s Defense as North Texas Puts Up a Fight Against Hoosiers Despite Transfer Portal Exodus”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-09-06 · read ↗

More in this tab

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

North Texas is the American Athletic program whose Joe Greene 'Mean Green' identity + Apogee Stadium + Eric Morris 2024 7-6 bowl appearance define what historic-Texas-G5-football looks like.

Offense: EliteDefense: SolidDefensive shape: Bend-don't-break
Open questionsThe unresolved questions this season keeps asking.
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2026Hired Neal Brown
  • 2025 · Wk 15Entered the CFP rankingsWeek 14 · Won 52-25 at home over Templeat No. 24
  • 2025 · Wk 13Entered the AP Top 25Week 12 · Won 53-24 at UABat No. 22
  • 2025Drew Svoboda departs (interim)1-0
  • 2025Eric Morris departs22-16
  • 2025Hired Drew Svoboda (interim)
RosterWho's gone, who's back, who replaces them.

Roster Reload - North Texas

2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15
Returning Production2%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#95 nationally247 composite 602.1
Portal Additions49Primary repair: S
Portal Losses38Primary pressure: OT
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#135Depth class
Sin 7 - Ja'Bree Bickham3.60out 4 - Quinton Hammonds3.60Need Filled
current room: 194 lbs avg (2025 roster)
WRin 6 - Justin Stevenson3.49out 5 - Wyatt Young4.38Even
current room: 186 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Possession Receiver2024 profileBoom-or-bustmoves the chains on third down his yards come in chunks — feast or famine
RBin 4 - Jahiem White3.60out 6 - Caleb Hawkins4.50Starter Risk
current room: 197 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Speed Merchant2024 profilehits the crease and outruns the angle
DLin 5 - Christian Lorenzo3.50out 4 - Ethan Day3.70Even
current room: 263 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 5 - Zach Johnson3.60out 3 - Kollin Lewis3.60Need Filled
current room: 186 lbs avg (2025 roster)
EDGEin 5 - Curlee Thomas IV3.49out 3 - Will Smith3.60Need Filled
Full roster (108 players)
Offseason movesEvery addition and subtraction since the last snap.

The Offseason Ledger · North Texas

6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news
  1. News

    North Texas names starting QB

    Morris spent an offseason in the film room fixing fourth-down decisions — naming a starter early is the kind of structural clarity a 5.5-win market needs to believe the offense is actually fixed.

    Aug 26Official
  2. News

    North Texas releases depth chart

    Depth chart out and the OT line is the story — class rank #135 nationally doesn't patch a pressure spot, and the market already dropped a full win off the board this offseason.

  3. News

    Jayden Becks dismissed for team rules violation

    Morris just dropped his win total to 5.5 and lost a key piece off a roster already thin at OT — Becks' dismissal isn't just a culture note, it's a depth problem on a team that couldn't afford one.

    Jul 26Official
  4. News

    Win total: 6.5 → 5.5 (▼1)

    Win total dropped from 6.5 to 5.5 with conference peers flat — the books see something program-specific.

    Jul 11
  5. News

    North Texas loses top cornerback

    Neal Brown's secondary just took a hit — losing your top corner in the AAC with a class ranked #135 nationally isn't a depth problem, it's a starting gap with nowhere to backfill from.

    Aug 16Reported
  6. Recruiting

    Isaiah Rasheed commits to North Texas

    The McClain connection closed this one — Rasheed's bond with the WRs coach matters when a class ranked 112th nationally needs recruits who chose the program, not just the offer.

    Jun 25Official
Who's movedWho's transferring in and out, right now.

Transfer portal snapshot

-4.8 net portal points
(raw ledger: +25.0 — unweighted, no position adjustment)
OT
-10.5
starter risk
IOL
+10.5
need filled
CB
+7.0
need filled
TE
+6.9
need filled
LB
+5.6
RB
-5.6
starter risk
S
+5.4
need filled
EDGE
+3.9
need filled
QB
-1.6
WR
+1.5
P
+1.0
low confidence
DL
+0.9
K
+0.0
LS
+0.0
Top commits

Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★☆☆
Lathon Latiolais
WR · Prosper, TX
#1358 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 19 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Cason Applewhite
EDGE · Palestine, TX
#1976 national
★★★☆☆
Ziondre Williams
ATH · Anna, TX
#2022 national
Where they're fromWhere this class actually comes from, on the map.

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

12
TX · 10CT · 1NV · 1

TX leads the 2026 class with 10 commits. National footprint reaching 3 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

77 signees across 11 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMINYMAORNV1WYSDIAILINOHPANJCT1CA1UT1CONEMOKYWVVAMDDERIAZNMKS3AR1TNNCSCDCOK3LA1MS1ALGAAKHITX62FL2
Source CFB Zeitgeist · player_recruiting_profiles
Miles from homeHow far this roster travelled to get here.

Miles from home · 2026 roster

The median North Texas player grew up 231 miles from campus.

Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.

37th-closest to home in FBS of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%35–769 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi40%42 of 105 players
Farthest1,372 miNolan Clark · Glen Rock, NJ
Closest2 miGrayson O'Bara · Denton, TX

Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to DATCU Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 105 of 108 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

In-state shareHow much of this roster is home-grown.

Who owns TX · 2026 roster

62% of the North Texas roster grew up in TX.

66 of 107 players, drawn from 21 states in all. That is the 12th-highest in-state share of 135 ranked FBS programs.

Signing day tells a more local story: 81% of the last 4 classes were TX kids, but churn — transfers in, locals out — has drifted the roster 19 points away from home.

TX · 66FL · 9GA · 7PA · 3IL · 2IN · 2NJ · 2OK · 2+13 more

Where the 2026 roster is from

107 players across 21 states. Biggest pull outside TX: FL (9).

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMN1WIMI1NYMAORNV1WYSDIAIL2IN2OH1PA3NJ2CTCA1UTCO1NEMO1KYWVVA2MDDE1RIAZNMKS1AR1TNNCSCDCOK2LA1MSAL1GA7AKHITX66FL9
Source CFB Zeitgeist · roster_entries (CFBD hometowns)
Every FBS roster ranked by in-state share →

Home state as listed on the CFBD roster. 1 listed player fall outside the 50 states and DC (international hometowns, or no state listed) and is excluded from the denominator. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

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Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

How it turned outHow an old class actually turned out, years on.
Class Autopsy
The 2021 class: 0 drafted so far, 44% never transferred. F
See the class →
Belief historyHow today's fan mood compares to the program's past.

Among the stronger offseasons on record for this program

88th percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. marketWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.
Fan vs. market
88th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
6.5
Vegas O/U wins
(45th among FBS)
Fans 43pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 1 book
Turnover luckHow much of the margin was skill vs. the bounce.
Fumble luck

60% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — well above the ~46% league baseline.

3 of 5 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.

PenaltiesWhether flags are costing this team games.
Penalty battle

19 penalties committed, 13 drawn on opponents — ceding 40 yards of field position.

152 penalty yards committed vs. 112 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.

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