The rest of the season
Two real tests left: UTSA 35%, Tulane 67%
Win out 13% · expect 2.5 of 4 more wins
North Texas's chance to win each game left, from our model: Rice 76%, UTSA 35%, Tulane 67%, UAB 71%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Conference title chance went from 15% to 24%, peaking at 24% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 1st in the American Athletic · 4-0 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Tayven Jackson 2,568 · Rushing Jahiem White 1,043 · Receiving Justin Stevenson 781 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow North Texas:athletics siteXYouTube
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #135 | #8 | +39.5✓ +3.5 | @Indiana | L 16-52 113 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Jackson 192 · Rush White 61 · Rec Milliner 66 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #123 | #91 | +3✓ +41 | UNLV | W 44-6 139 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Jackson 233 · Rush White 124 · Rec Milliner 65 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #120 | #32 | +3✗ −11 | @Texas State | L 35-49 158 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Jackson 483 · Rush Haygood 50 · Rec Stevenson 122 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #111 | #219 | −38.5✓ +10.5 | Houston Christian | W 63-14 128 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Jackson 270 · Rush White 133 · Rec Reese 70 |
| 5 | Oct 1 | #98 | #109 | −3✗ −2 | @Tulsa | W 45-44 164 Roaring | 3-2 | 1-0 | Pass Jackson 332 · Rush White 219 · Rec Reese 101 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #76 | #204 | −27.5✓ +12.5 | Charlotte | W 50-10 126 | 4-2 | 2-0 | Pass Jackson 349 · Rush White 105 · Rec Stevenson 122 |
| 7 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | #66 | #67 | −3✓ +7 | @Navy | W 49-39 129 | 5-2 | 3-0 | Pass Jackson 305 · Rush White 174 · Rec Stevenson 209 |
| 9 | Oct 29 | #54 | #120 | −15.5✗ −8.5 | Florida Atlantic | W 48-41 167 | 6-2 | 4-0 | Pass Jackson 404 · Rush White 193 · Rec Stevenson 119 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #55 | #161 | −16.5 | Rice | 4 pm ET · ESPNU76% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #57 | #34 | @UTSA | time TBA · ESPNU35% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Tulane | time TBA67% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | UAB | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for North Texas, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for North Texas: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | Florida Atlantic | W 48-41 | 644 | 2 | 35:05 | +0.320 | 48.2% | 1.42 | One-score win |
| Oct 24 | @Navy | W 49-39 | 477 | 1 | 22:29 | +0.467 | 61.1% | 1.36 | |
| Oct 10 | Charlotte | W 50-10 | 580 | 0 | 30:14 | +0.411 | 47.9% | 1.38 | Blowout win |
| Oct 1 | @Tulsa | W 45-44 | 559 | 3 | 34:42 | +0.150 | 39.5% | 1.53 | One-score win |
| Sep 26 | Houston Christian | W 63-14 | 648 | 1 | 30:53 | +0.685 | 70.1% | 1.19 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @Texas State | L 35-49 | 565 | 2 | 32:35 | +0.226 | 52.3% | 1.18 | |
| Sep 12 | UNLV | W 44-6 | 444 | 0 | 32:15 | +0.345 | 44.9% | 1.35 | Blowout win |
| Sep 5 | @Indiana | L 16-52 | 367 | 1 | 37:22 | +0.135 | 34.8% | 1.55 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 536 | 1.2 | +0.342 | 49.9% | 1.37 | ||||
North Texas's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last five.
North Texas is not the same team as last year. Coach Eric Morris and the majority of the team moved on to Oklahoma State
Root for Florida Atlantic over UTSA
Thu 7:30 pm · Moves North Texas’s conference title chance by 4 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
The open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Neal Brown, who led West Virginia to a 12-2 season, inherits a 2% production returning roster at North Texas — the program's third coach in five years, and the fanbase.
Statusfront page
Eric Morris' 12-2 season vaulted North Texas into dynasty territory, but the market projects just 6 wins — a skepticism gap after a historic G5 run.
Statusfront page
$1.02M donation to UNT athletics.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · North Texas · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 1%; 7 wins 12%; 8 wins 35%; 9 wins 39%; 10 wins 13%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 85 of 4309 board posts (2%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
Neal Brown took over as North Texas's head coach, replacing Drew Svoboda. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. The coverage has moved from the hire itself to what followed it. The coverage is thin so far, and the story is still developing.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 68 of 4309 board posts (2%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-2
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among American Athletic teams the same season
North Texas is the program named for Joe Greene's 'Mean Green' that broke a 66-year ranking drought in 2025 — 12 wins, a poll appearance, and then the coach who built it gone to Oklahoma State before the celebration ended.
Fans note that the moment North Texas finally got good, the first ranking since 1959, 12 wins, a Burlsworth Trophy quarterback, a power-conference school simply reached down and took the coach and…
North Texas · Game-day weather
Typical at DATCU Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 93, 3:30 pm Saturdays 80
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 113 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
North Texas is the American Athletic program whose Joe Greene 'Mean Green' identity + Apogee Stadium + Eric Morris 2024 7-6 bowl appearance define what historic-Texas-G5-football looks like.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 3 signees
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
66th percentile among FBS programs
More
8Eric Morris' 12-2 season vaulted North Texas into dynasty territory, but the market projects just 6 wins — a skepticism gap after a historic G5 run.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · North Texas · 2026