UTSA at Florida Atlantic
UTSA (7‑1) at Florida Atlantic (5‑3) — UTSA is favored by 7. The model gives UTSA a 61% shot. UTSA’s offense is at the 74th percentile on efficiency; Florida Atlantic’s defense is at the 2nd.
How they got here
Last three games
UTSA · 7-1
Rated 18th in our preseason ratings, 34th now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Last three games
Florida Atlantic · 5-3
Rated 108th in our preseason ratings, 126th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 66-10 vs Texas Southern No. 228 of 668 teams
won by 56 as a 47.5-point favorite
Biggest mismatch: UTSA’s rushing EPA against Florida Atlantic, 86 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
UTSA’s EPA/play against Florida Atlantic’s defense
UTSA offense, 74th percentile · Florida Atlantic defense, 2nd
UTSA’s rushing EPA against Florida Atlantic’s defense
UTSA offense, 89th percentile · Florida Atlantic defense, 3rd
Florida Atlantic’s explosive plays against UTSA’s defense
Florida Atlantic offense, 55th percentile · UTSA defense, 29th
What’s at stake
UTSA
- UTSA controls first place in American Athletic with 3 games left — 46% to win it with a win here, 32% with a loss.
- UTSA is coming off a 23-point win.
Florida Atlantic
- Florida Atlantic needs 1 more win in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 100% to get there with a win here, 77% with a loss.
- A win would be one of Florida Atlantic’s biggest of the season — a 92-spot gap in the power ratings.
The series
Florida Atlantic leads the series 3-2
5 meetings since 2014 · UTSA has won the last 2
- 2024UTSA 38-24
- 2023UTSA 36-10
- 2020Florida Atlantic 24-3
- 2019Florida Atlantic 40-26
- 2014Florida Atlantic 41-37
Each line is Florida Atlantic’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
UTSA
The chipThe fanbase's chip isn't aimed at a rival or the media — it's the founding insult, the years outsiders assumed San Antonio's seventh-largest-city market would never field a real team. Every bowl win is the answer they keep needing to give.
What this game touches
The plateau after the breakthrough. After back-to-back 12-2 and 11-3 seasons that announced UTSA as the model FBS newcomer, the Roadrunners settled into the muddle of the middle — a 7-6 finish in 2025 that only became a winning year by routing FIU 57-20 in the First Responder Bowl. The fear in San Antonio is that the rocket-ship rise has leveled off.
Florida Atlantic
The chip · vs the national mediaOwls fans know how the program gets framed — a sunny pit stop where good coaches audition for bigger jobs. They believe Boca is worth building at, not just leaving from, and they're tired of being treated like a launchpad.
What this game touches
The post-Kiffin drift. After Kiffin left for Ole Miss in 2019, FAU cycled through coaches and slid back into the pack; Zach Kittley's first year in 2025 went 4-8 (3-5 American), a reminder that the 2017 high was a flash, not a foundation.
Best players
UTSA
- Brandon Tucker Jr. (LB) · 56 tackles
- Darion White (LB) · 50 tackles
- Will Henderson III (RB) · 662 rushing yards
Florida Atlantic
- Easton Messer (WR) · 891 receiving yards
- Caden Veltkamp (QB) · 2,534 passing yards
- Kelby Valsin (WR) · 752 receiving yards
What to watch
Player to watch: Will Henderson III (RB) — UTSA’s leading rusher (662 rushing yards) takes on Florida Atlantic’s run defense (3rd percentile allowed).
The total has moved up 2.0 points since opening (70.5 → 72.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Florida Atlantic fans are in a better mood than UTSA fans (76th percentile vs 27th among FBS fanbases), even with UTSA favored.
- Model · 39%
- Line · 29%
- Florida Atlantic fans · 76th
- UTSA fans · 27th
UTSA favored by 7 · Total 72.5
UTSA by 7: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
UTSA’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 427 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at FAU Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 88, noon Saturdays 61
UTSA at Florida Atlantic · Thursday, Nov. 5 · 7:30 pm ET · FAU Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at FAU Stadium: noon Saturdays score 61, 3:30 pm 68, 7:30 pm 88.
- noon: 61, Rough
- 3:30 pm: 68, Rough
- 7:30 pm: 88, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Florida Atlantic is worth +4.2 points (±4.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 52nd percentile.
57% at home, 28% on the road against FBS opponents (25-19 home, 14-36 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.4 at home vs. away over 102 games — inside the ±6.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,140 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Florida Atlantic
- Wk 4Wat UL Monroe45-17
- Wk 5Wvs Texas Southern66-10
- Wk 7Lat Army24-56
- Wk 8Wvs Rice51-49
- Wk 9Lat North Texas41-48
UTSA
- Wk 4Wvs Colorado State59-45
- Wk 5Wat Rice16-14
- Wk 6Wvs South Florida31-24
- Wk 7Wvs Navy38-34
- Wk 8Wat Tulane42-19
Power rating by week
UTSA is rated 9.9 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward UTSA.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: +6.5 → +7 · Total: 70.5 → 72.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Florida Atlantic7th2-2
- UTSA1st4-0