Florida Atlantic beats Navy 38-30

Team pages: Navy · Florida Atlantic

Navy1-130
Florida Atlantic1-138Final
Sat, Sep 12 · FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Fla. · Crowd 22,273ESPNU

Florida Atlantic beat Navy 38-30.

We had Navy favored. Florida Atlantic won.

Next: Navy lost to UAB 24-20, Fri Sep 25

Next: Florida Atlantic beat Florida International 16-10, Sat Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: Veltkamp 76-yd TD pass to Messer, Florida Atlantic goes ahead 7-0 (Q1, 14:18). Florida Atlantic went from 46% to 67% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Florida Atlantic a 35% chance, and the closing betting line (Florida Atlantic was a 4.5-point underdog) put it at 36%.

A tight one: Florida Atlantic bottomed out at 34% and won.

Up to 66% in the first quarter, then Navy lost it.

76-yard TD passFlorida Atlantic · Q1 14:18SafetyNavy · Q4 3:12
FinalFlorida Atlantic 38-30 NavyFlorida Atlantic wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Florida AtlanticNavyLowest 34%Won38-3012+21+19ScoresSafety
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4NavyLowest 34%Won38-3012ScoresSafety
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4NavyFlorida AtlanticLowest 0%High 66%Lost30-3812−21−19ScoresSafety
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4NavyLowest 0%High 66%Lost30-3812ScoresSafety

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 14:18Veltkamp 76-yd TD pass to Messer, Florida Atlantic goes ahead 7-0Florida Atlantic 46% → 67% (+21)
  2. 2Q1 6:59Veltkamp 36-yd TD pass to Messer, Florida Atlantic goes ahead 14-7Florida Atlantic 48% → 67% (+19)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 14:18Veltkamp 76-yd TD pass to Messer, Florida Atlantic goes ahead 7-0Navy 54% → 33% (−21)
  2. 2Q1 6:59Veltkamp 36-yd TD pass to Messer, Florida Atlantic goes ahead 14-7Navy 52% → 33% (−19)
Florida Atlantic’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Navy -4.5), at 46% for Florida Atlantic (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Florida Atlantic scored on 6 of its 12 drives; Navy on 4 of its 12.

Florida Atlantic’s drives are teal, Navy’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Florida Atlantic: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownNavy: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida Atlantic: Punt, from 75 yards out to 70PuntNavy: Missed field goal, from 60 yards out to 28Missed FGFlorida Atlantic: Touchdown, from 72 yards out to 0TouchdownNavy: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 56FumbleFlorida Atlantic: Missed field goal, from 44 yards out to 36Missed FGNavy: Punt, from 64 yards out to 67PuntFlorida Atlantic: Turned over on downs, from 53 yards out to 10DownsQ2Navy: Punt, from 90 yards out to 70PuntFlorida Atlantic: Touchdown, from 79 yards out to 0TouchdownNavy: Punt, from 75 yards out to 62PuntFlorida Atlantic: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownNavy: Interception, from 75 yards out to 63InterceptionFlorida Atlantic: Field goal, from 47 yards out to 42Field goalQ3Navy: Punt, from 75 yards out to 52PuntFlorida Atlantic: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownNavy: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida Atlantic: Punt, from 0 yards out to 0PuntQ4Navy: Touchdown, from 85 yards out to 0TouchdownNavy: Turned over on downs, from 65 yards out to 61DownsFlorida Atlantic: Safety, from 45 yards out to 100SafetyNavy: Touchdown, from 58 yards out to 0TouchdownFlorida Atlantic: End of game, from 39 yards out to 30End of game

From Navy’s side

Navy’s best moment: Woodson 48-yd TD run, ties it 7-7 (Q1 13:12). It lifted Navy’s win chance by 13 points.

Box score

Florida Atlantic 38, Navy 30

Florida Atlantic covered +4.5 by 12.5. The total, 68, went over 59.5.

NavyFlorida AtlanticTotal yardsNavy 393Florida Atlantic 428393428Passing yardsNavy 147Florida Atlantic 386147386Rushing yardsNavy 246Florida Atlantic 4224642First downsNavy 18Florida Atlantic 271827TurnoversNavy 2Florida Atlantic 020Time of possessionNavy 26:10Florida Atlantic 33:5026:1033:50
Team totalsNavyFlorida Atlantic
Total yards393428
Passing9 of 23, 147 yds27 of 33, 386 yds
Rushing36 for 246 yds44 for 42 yds
First downs1827
Third down3 of 118 of 14
Fourth down2 of 31 of 3
Turnovers20
Penalties9 for 70 yds9 for 75 yds
Time of possession26:1033:50

Navy leaders

  • Passing Jackson Gutierrez 6 of 12, 100 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Braxton Woodson 12 for 96 yds, 1 TD; Jackson Gutierrez 7 for 75 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Jordan Collins 2 for 68 yds, 1 TD; Charles Robinson 4 for 36 yds, 1 TD

Florida Atlantic leaders

  • Passing Caden Veltkamp 27 of 32, 386 yds, 5 TD
  • Rushing Ethan Ervin 17 for 67 yds; Leonard Farrow 8 for 34 yds
  • Receiving Easton Messer 8 for 179 yds, 2 TD; Kelby Valsin 8 for 115 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

81° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 84°, with about 7 in 10 games between 80° and 86°.

September game-day temperatures at FAU Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Florida Atlantic favoredNavy favored100%Win chanceFlorida AtlanticRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Florida Atlantic favoredNavy favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:18 left7:42 p.m.
Navy 0, Florida Atlantic 7 · Florida Atlantic 67% to win
no rain · 80°
Veltkamp 76-yd TD pass to Messer, Florida Atlantic goes ahead 7-0

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Boca Raton Airport, 0.6 miles away, and Pompano Beach airport, 9.0 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Navy · 11-2

Rated 72nd in our preseason ratings, 71st now.

Three straight wins, including a 11-point win over Memphis as a 3.5-point underdog.

W 35-13 @ CincinnatiTop 25 #77 of 667

won by 22 as a 7.5-point favorite

Navy won 35-13 vs Cincinnati. Chance to win started at 65%, low 56%, high better than 99%.

W 17-16 vs Army #115 of 667

won by 1 as a 3.5-point favorite

Navy won 17-16 vs Army. Chance to win started at 69%, low 26%, high better than 99%.

W 28-17 @ MemphisTop 25 #57 of 667

won by 11 as a 3.5-point underdog

Navy won 28-17 at Memphis. Chance to win started at 32%, low 22%, high 96%.

W 41-38 vs South FloridaTop 25 #23 of 667

won by 3 as an 8.5-point underdog

Navy won 41-38 vs South Florida. Chance to win started at 36%, low 27%, high better than 99%.

L 10-49 @ Notre DameTop 25 #3 of 667

lost by 39 as a 30.5-point underdog

Navy lost 10-49 at Notre Dame. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 3%.

L 17-31 @ North TexasTop 25 #47 of 667

lost by 14 as a 6.5-point underdog

Navy lost 17-31 at North Texas. Chance to win started at 23%, low under 1%, high 23%.

W 42-32 vs Florida Atlantic #98 of 667

won by 10 as a 14.5-point favorite

Navy won 42-32 vs Florida Atlantic. Chance to win started at 88%, low 71%, high better than 99%.

W 32-31 @ Temple #109 of 667

won by 1 as a 10.5-point favorite

Navy won 32-31 at Temple. Chance to win started at 70%, low 9%, high better than 99%.

W 34-31 vs Air Force #150 of 667

won by 3 as a 13.5-point favorite

Navy won 34-31 vs Air Force. Chance to win started at 91%, low 59%, high 97%.

W 21-13 vs Rice #121 of 667

won by 8 as a 14.5-point favorite

Navy won 21-13 vs Rice. Chance to win started at 88%, low 88%, high better than 99%.

W 42-23 @ Tulsa #152 of 667

won by 19 as a 13.5-point favorite

Navy won 42-23 at Tulsa. Chance to win started at 77%, low 34%, high better than 99%.

W 38-24 vs UAB #121 of 667

won by 14 as a 22.5-point favorite

Navy won 38-24 vs UAB. Chance to win started at 95%, low 82%, high better than 99%.

W 52-7 vs VMI #255 of 667

won by 45 as a 42.5-point favorite

Navy won 52-7 vs VMI. Chance to win started at 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Florida Atlantic · 4-8

Rated 108th in our preseason ratings, 106th now.

Three straight losses.

L 3-42 vs East Carolina #39 of 667

lost by 39 as a 6.5-point underdog

Florida Atlantic lost 3-42 vs East Carolina. Chance to win started at 39%, low under 1%, high 41%.

L 45-48 vs UConn #74 of 667

lost by 3 as a 5.5-point underdog

Florida Atlantic lost 45-48 vs UConn. Chance to win started at 33%, low under 1%, high 72%.

L 24-35 @ TulaneTop 25 #57 of 667

lost by 11 as a 17.5-point underdog

Florida Atlantic lost 24-35 at Tulane. Chance to win started at 8%, low under 1%, high 14%.

W 40-21 vs Tulsa #164 of 667

won by 19 as a 4.5-point favorite

Florida Atlantic won 40-21 vs Tulsa. Chance to win started at 72%, low 66%, high better than 99%.

L 32-42 @ NavyTop 25 #87 of 667

lost by 10 as a 14.5-point underdog

Florida Atlantic lost 32-42 at Navy. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 29%.

L 13-48 @ South FloridaTop 25 #23 of 667

lost by 35 as a 20.5-point underdog

Florida Atlantic lost 13-48 at South Florida. Chance to win started at 7%, low under 1%, high 7%.

W 53-33 vs UAB #159 of 667

won by 20 as a 5.5-point favorite

Florida Atlantic won 53-33 vs UAB. Chance to win started at 73%, low 70%, high better than 99%.

W 27-21 @ Rice #133 of 667

won by 6 as a 4.5-point underdog

Florida Atlantic won 27-21 at Rice. Chance to win started at 28%, low 15%, high 94%.

L 26-55 vs MemphisTop 25 #28 of 667

lost by 29 as a 13.5-point underdog

Florida Atlantic lost 26-55 vs Memphis. Chance to win started at 16%, low under 1%, high 55%.

L 28-38 @ Florida International #109 of 667

lost by 10 as a 1.5-point underdog

Florida Atlantic lost 28-38 at Florida International. Chance to win started at 45%, low under 1%, high 62%.

W 56-14 vs Florida A&M #130 of 667

won by 42 as a 21.5-point favorite

Florida Atlantic won 56-14 vs Florida A&M. Chance to win started at 93%, low 93%, high better than 99%.

L 7-39 @ Maryland #63 of 667

lost by 32 as a 13.5-point underdog

Week by week

Florida Atlantic

  • Wk 1Lat Florida21-66

Navy

  • Wk 1Wvs Towson42-15

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Navy’s rushing EPA against Florida Atlantic, 85 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Navy’s rushing EPA against Florida Atlantic’s defense

    85 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Navy offense, 90th percentile · Florida Atlantic defense, 5th

  2. Navy’s EPA/play against Florida Atlantic’s defense

    67 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Navy offense, 72nd percentile · Florida Atlantic defense, 5th

  3. Navy’s explosive plays against Florida Atlantic’s defense

    48 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Navy offense, 52nd percentile · Florida Atlantic defense, 4th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

NavyFlorida Atlantic
EPA/play, offense
Navy · 72Florida Atlantic · 71
EPA/play, defense
Navy · 35Florida Atlantic · 5
Success rate, offense
Navy · 72Florida Atlantic · 68
Success rate, defense
Navy · 74Florida Atlantic · 27
Explosive-play rate, offense
Navy · 52Florida Atlantic · 45
Explosive-play rate, defense
Navy · 3Florida Atlantic · 4
Rush EPA, offense
Navy · 90Florida Atlantic · 65
Rush EPA, defense
Navy · 66Florida Atlantic · 5
Pass EPA, offense
Navy · 61Florida Atlantic · 67
Pass EPA, defense
Navy · 34Florida Atlantic · 61

The series

Navy leads the series 3-0

3 meetings since 2012 · Navy has won the last 3

  • 2025Navy 42-32Florida Atlantic lost 32-42 at Navy. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 29%.
  • 2017Navy 42-19
  • 2012Navy 24-17

Each line is Florida Atlantic’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Navy fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (79th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

50-50Model 35% · Line 36%Florida Atlantic fans · 59thNavy fans · 79thNavyFlorida Atlantic

Navy favored by 4.5 · Total 59.5

How games like this usually go

Navy by 4.5, on the usual path until Q1 6:59

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Florida Atlantic.

opened +6.5now +4.5

The total rose 2 points.

opened 57.5now 59.5

Spread: +6.5 → +4.5 · Total: 57.5 → 59.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Florida Atlantic is worth +4.2 points (±4.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 52nd percentile.

56% at home, 29% on the road against FBS opponents (24-19 home, 14-35 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.8 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±7.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 896 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full American Athletic standings