The rest of the season
Three real tests left: No. 17 Houston 20%, No. 7 BYU 22%, Iowa State 64%
Win out 2% · expect 1.8 of 4 more wins
Cincinnati's chance to win each game left, from our model: Houston 20%, Iowa State 64%, Colorado 72%, BYU 22%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 45% to 84%, peaking at 90% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 8th in the Big 12 · 2-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing JC French 1,773 · Rushing Cole Tabb 752 · Receiving JaVonnie Gibson 461 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Cincinnati:athletics siteBig 12X@GoBearcatsFBInstagram@gobearcatsfb
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #109 | #130 | −7✓ +12 | Boston College | W 34-15 134 Loud | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass French 77 · Rush Payne 108 · Rec Gibson 54 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #110 | #195 | −36.5✓ +15.5 | Western Carolina | W 62-10 137 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass French 245 · Rush Payne 102 · Rec Henry 87 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #109 | #86 | −14.5✗ −10.5 | Miami (OH) | W 35-31 132 | 3-0 | 0-0 | Pass French 309 · Rush Tabb 78 · Rec Gibson 68 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #101 | #26 | +6✓ +11 | Kansas State | W 31-26 131 | 4-0 | 1-0 | Pass French 165 · Rush Payne 126 · Rec Gibson 66 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #95 | #26 | +7✗ −20 | @Arizona | L 7-34 135 | 4-1 | 1-1 | Pass French 153 · Rush French 29 · Rec Johnson 60 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #92 | #153 | +1.5✗ −1.5 | @West Virginia | L 42-45 149 Loud | 4-2 | 1-2 | Pass French 389 · Rush Tabb 118 · Rec Henry 128 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #87 | #9 | +10.5✓ +23.5 | Texas TechTop 10 win | W 37-24 146 | 5-2 | 2-2 | Pass French 172 · Rush Tabb 173 · Rec Perry 43 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #66 | #16 | +7✗ −17 | Utah | L 25-49 135 | 5-3 | 2-3 | Pass French 263 · Rush Tabb 131 · Rec Gibson 76 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #73 | #20 | +11.5 | @Houston | 3:30 pm ET · FOX20% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #74 | #112 | @Iowa State | time TBA64% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Colorado | time TBA72% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @BYU | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Cincinnati, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Cincinnati: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Utah | L 25-49 | 456 | 2 | 24:30 | -0.050 | 41.5% | 1.59 | |
| Oct 24 | Texas Tech | W 37-24 | 427 | 2 | 29:17 | +0.041 | 43.1% | 1.27 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 17 | @West Virginia | L 42-45 | 622 | 0 | 31:56 | +0.577 | 53.5% | 1.56 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | @Arizona | L 7-34 | 227 | 0 | 24:21 | -0.081 | 30.4% | 1.70 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | Kansas State | W 31-26 | 436 | 1 | 26:42 | +0.371 | 41.2% | 1.73 | Most explosive |
| Sep 19 | Miami (OH) | W 35-31 | 446 | 1 | 33:26 | +0.235 | 49.4% | 1.22 | One-score win |
| Sep 12 | Western Carolina | W 62-10 | 690 | 0 | 32:37 | +0.574 | 63.7% | 1.22 | Best success rate |
| Sep 5 | Boston College | W 34-15 | 339 | 0 | 28:41 | +0.241 | 38.7% | 1.26 | |
| Season average (8 games) | 455 | 0.8 | +0.239 | 45.2% | 1.44 | ||||
Cincinnati's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Cincinnati is not in single wounded animal mode, they are in double wounded animal mode
Range of outcomes · Cincinnati · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 6%; 6 wins 31%; 7 wins 44%; 8 wins 17%; 9 wins 2%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season
Cincinnati is the first program from outside the power structure to crash the College Football Playoff — then spent its reward, a Big 12 invitation, learning how hard it is to do it again with the bar that high.
Bearcat fans remember being told for years a team like theirs could never make the Playoff, so they made it, undefeated, the first ones in, and they say the people who tried to keep them out still…
Cincinnati · Game-day weather
This Saturday: Warm. No coat needed.
Cincinnati at Houston · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 3:30 pm ET · FOX · TDECU Stadium.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
This game is at TDECU Stadium. The kickoff times below are for Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati's home stadium.
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Cincinnati is the program that made the CFP in 2021 as a Group of 5 team and now must prove the move from American to Big 12 was worth it.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Cincinnati · 2026