The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: UCF 37%
Win out 1% · expect 1.3 of 4 more wins
Iowa State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Baylor 22%, Cincinnati 36%, UCF 37%, Kansas State 36%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 50% to 51%, peaking at 56% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 8th in the Big 12 · 2-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Jaylen Raynor 1,416 · Rushing Aiden Flora 937 · Receiving Jamal Polite Jr. 286 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Iowa State:athletics siteBig 12XInstagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #162 | #226 | −29.5✗ −1.5 | Southeast Missouri State | W 38-10 115 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Raynor 184 · Rush Flora 45 · Rec Overby 85 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #159 | #13 | +14✓ +11 | @Iowa | L 13-16 112 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Raynor 117 · Rush Flora 89 · Rec Hayes 39 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #138 | #135 | −22.5✓ +25.5 | Bowling Green | W 55-7 116 Loud | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Raynor 133 · Rush Flora 194 · Rec Polite Jr. 34 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #114 | #25 | +7.5✗ −6.5 | Utah | L 17-31 133 | 2-2 | 0-1 | Pass Raynor 205 · Rush Flora 54 · Rec Hayes 55 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #108 | #150 | −3= | West Virginia | W 45-42 139 Loud | 3-2 | 1-1 | Pass Raynor 264 · Rush Flora 212 · Rec Jackson 160 |
| 6 | Oct 9 | #112 | #9 | +11.5✗ −2.5 | @BYU | L 10-24 117 | 3-3 | 1-2 | Pass Raynor 98 · Rush Flora 86 · Rec Claiborne 31 |
| 7 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | #102 | #20 | +11.5✗ −24.5 | @Arizona | L 3-39 131 | 3-4 | 1-3 | Pass Raynor 106 · Rush Flora 36 · Rec Benetti 42 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #110 | #75 | +10✓ +12 | Oklahoma StateTop 25 win | W 51-49 146 | 4-4 | 2-3 | Pass Raynor 309 · Rush Flora 221 · Rec Polite Jr. 171 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #108 | #23 | +10 | @Baylor | 12 pm ET22% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #112 | #74 | Cincinnati | time TBA36% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 20 | @UCF | 6 pm ET · FS137% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Kansas State | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Iowa State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Iowa State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Oklahoma State | W 51-49 | 581 | 1 | 34:47 | +0.392 | 44.6% | 1.67 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | @Arizona | L 3-39 | 221 | 1 | 25:34 | -0.244 | 30.5% | 1.04 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 9 | @BYU | L 10-24 | 200 | 0 | 27:17 | -0.119 | 29.3% | 1.10 | |
| Oct 3 | West Virginia | W 45-42 | 577 | 1 | 38:14 | +0.336 | 50.0% | 1.30 | Best success rate |
| Sep 26 | Utah | L 17-31 | 316 | 2 | 31:56 | -0.108 | 36.5% | 1.21 | |
| Sep 19 | Bowling Green | W 55-7 | 507 | 1 | 32:49 | +0.319 | 50.0% | 1.32 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 12 | @Iowa | L 13-16 | 255 | 0 | 30:18 | +0.075 | 29.1% | 1.11 | One-score loss |
| Sep 5 | Southeast Missouri State | W 38-10 | 303 | 1 | 23:08 | +0.245 | 35.4% | 1.76 | Most explosive |
| Season average (8 games) | 370 | 0.9 | +0.112 | 38.2% | 1.32 | ||||
Iowa State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Saturday night, Halloween, it’s just really a great environment, so that plays into it
The open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Rogers, who previously coached at Washington State, inherits an 8-4 roster with 58% production returning — Iowa State’s love for its underdog identity clashes with the pressure to sustain a rare winning season.
Statusdeveloping
Jimmy Rogers, in his first season at Iowa State, inherits an 8-4 winning record but faces unease among fans who expect more from a program reshaping its identity.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Iowa State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 20%; 5 wins 40%; 6 wins 30%; 7 wins 9%; 8 wins 1%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
Jimmy Rogers took over as Iowa State's head coach, replacing Matt Campbell. It is replaces 10-year head coach Matt Campbell (72-55). The coverage has moved from the hire itself to what followed it. The coverage is thin so far, and the story is still developing.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 117 of 5930 board posts (2%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (147 posts): 17% positive · 52% neutral · 31% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
Only 8 of 5930 board posts mention it, below our floor for calling a community stance. The posts are shown for texture only.
Board health this week (147 posts): 17% positive · 52% neutral · 31% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season
Iowa State spent a hundred years as the program that couldn't, then Matt Campbell made it matter — and in 2025 Ames had to watch the man who fixed everything pack up for Penn State.
The chip is shaped like the team across the state — Iowa State fans are tired of being the little sibling in their own Cy-Hawk rivalry, the program everyone roots for but nobody fears. They wanted…
Iowa State · Game-day weather
This Saturday: Mild. No coat needed.
Iowa State at Baylor · Saturday, Nov. 7 · noon ET · FS1 · McLane Stadium.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
This game is at McLane Stadium. The kickoff times below are for Jack Trice Stadium, Iowa State's home stadium.
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 112 at noon, 112 at 3:30 pm, 113 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Iowa State is the program that turned 'losing for 100 years' into one of the most-loved Big 12 stories of the 2020s.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Iowa State · 2026