Iowa State is the program that turned 'losing for 100 years' into one of the most-loved Big 12 stories of the 2020s.
Cy the Cardinal watches the grain elevator.
Iowa State spent a hundred years as the program that couldn't, then Matt Campbell made it matter — and in 2025 Ames had to watch the man who fixed everything pack up for Penn State.
Iowa State went 8-4 (5-4 Big 12) in 2025 and climbed to No. 12 in the AP poll, but Matt Campbell left for Penn State at season's end after compiling the best winning percentage in school history (72-55), and much of the roster fol…
Matt Campbell went 72-55 at Iowa State — the best winning percentage in the school's history — and left for Penn State at the end of 2025. The roster largely followed him out the door. Jimmy Rogers takes over a program that spent a century learning how to lose and a decade learning how to win, and now has to figure out which one it is without the man who taught it the difference.
Jack Trice Stadium is the only Power-conference stadium in the country named for an African-American athlete. Trice, Iowa State's first Black player, was fatally injured in a 1923 road game at Minnesota; the letter he wrote the night before — 'my sole purpose of going to Minnesota is to play the best football I can' — became the program's moral cornerstone decades before it had a trophy case worth mentioning. Iowa State showed up for a hundred years of losing and kept showing up. The patience is not a cliche; it is documented and real.
Campbell arrived in 2017 and converted that patience into wins: a Fiesta Bowl, a Big 12 Championship Game berth, top-15 rankings, Brock Purdy from Ames to a Super Bowl. When he left for Penn State after an 8-4 season that briefly put the Cyclones at No. 12 nationally, the departure had the specific sting of something that wasn't supposed to happen — the good coach who was supposed to stay, leaving with the roster behind him. Rogers, a Campbell assistant, inherits the infrastructure and the depth chart question.
The 2026 season in Ames is a direct test of a question the Campbell era never had to answer: was the decade of winning about the program or about the coach? If Rogers holds the altitude — bowl game, .500 Big 12 record, the talent pipeline still producing — then the Campbell years changed Iowa State permanently. If the program slides back toward the bottom of the league, Cyclone country will have its oldest fear confirmed. The fanbase will show up either way. The question is which version of Iowa State they'll be watching.
Campbell's Iowa State ran gap-sound, tough, develop-and-keep football — a scheme that out-coached its talent gaps through patience and execution. Rogers inherits that structural identity: a run-first base, physical defense, and a program built to keep players who might otherwise transfer to bigger names. Jack Trice Stadium holds 61,500 and has one of the sport's most devoted tailgate cultures — a fanbase that turned up through a century of losing and doesn't stop now. The rebuild is real; the loyalty is realer.
Iowa State fields a strong methodical, ball-control offense behind a strong defense.
Identity computed from opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and run/pass volume — percentiles vs all FBS.
Offseason
69 days
until kickoff · Sun Aug 30 · 17:00 UTC
The team's roster features a moderate continuity level with 58% of returning players and a development class ranked #54. Transfer activity includes 48 incoming players and 55 outgoing players, creating volatility in key positions.
Recruiting Class
#54 nationally
2025 cycle · 247 composite rating 197.4
Mid-major recruiting tier. Development becomes the lever.
Returning Production
58%
2025 cycle · CFBD weighted
Mid-pack continuity. QB returns.
Talent Composite
#71 nationally
2025 cycle · 247 composite 648.9
Outside the talent top 60. The wins must be earned in development.
Portal Movement
48 in / 55 out
2026 cycle · in 48 / out 55
Portal losses outpace additions; position detail lives in Roster Reload.
the open questionis the portal class enough to move the needle?
Iowa State signed a top-25 transfer-portal class — 48 additions headlined by Zane Flores (QB) from Oklahoma State and Jaylen Raynor (QB) from Arkansas State.
Iowa State enters 2025 rated No. 33 in SP+ (+9.9).
RB Arnold Barnes III transfer commits from Tulane
Green Wave starter-level production coming to Ames — Barnes fills the backfield void Campbell's been patching with committee carries all spring.
What moved it — offseason · last 30 days
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Brief Part III §33.4 · Iowa State
The realistic floor for a successful season.
Calendar-defining outcome for the fanbase.
Has happened in the last decade; would feel like a leap.
Generational stretch goal.
Iowa State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-06-22
Recruiting Reload - Top 3 commits
2026 classRecruiting Footprint · 2026
19AZ leads the 2026 class with 3 commits. National footprint reaching 13 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
60 signees across 23 states, 2023-2026. IA leads the pull.
Most Similar Programs · Iowa State
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Coaching Era · Iowa State
Matt Campbell has held the program for 6 seasons — the era is established.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 1923
Jack Trice was a Black ISU football player who died from injuries in a 1923 game vs Minnesota. ISU renamed the stadium for him in 1997 — the only FBS venue named after a player rather than a donor or coach. The story is the program's moral identity anchor.
since 1970s
Ames tailgating is among the most-cited 'great experiences in CFB' in the Big 12 — converted Iowa farm-country sensibility, multi-generational families, the simple food + good neighbors aesthetic. The fan culture pre-dates and survives the football program's competitive ups and downs.
since 2016
Matt Campbell's hire (2016) transformed ISU from chronic doormat into Big 12 contender. The 2020 Fiesta Bowl appearance and the program's first sustained top-25 era are the Campbell era's headline. Brock Purdy (2019-2021) was the most-popular QB in program history.
Fanbase Health Index · Iowa State · medium confidence
Home-Field Advantage · Iowa State · 2018-present
66% home win rate vs 56% on the road. margin runs +8.7 better at home.
Statement Wins · 2025
3 wins over AP top-25 opponents. Headlined by #17 Kansas State.
Iowa State reads strongest in rushing epa allowed (top 19%) and success rate (top 25%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where Iowa State sits at the 22nd percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Iowa State signed a top-25 transfer-portal class — 48 additions headlined by Zane Flores (QB) from Oklahoma State and Jaylen Raynor (QB) from Arkansas State. It is a top-2 portal class in the Big 12 this cycle.
Every line is a door. Evidence opens in place — verbatim outlet headlines for news sources, verbatim fan text attributed to the community not the individual (never a username). Works with JavaScript off.
The optimistic read: recruiting wins, momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Only 1 of 54 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
Board health this week (24 posts): 46% positive · 42% neutral · 12% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Iowa State enters 2025 rated No. 33 in SP+ (+9.9). SP+ is a tempo-free efficiency model — it describes what the program HAS done. The season is the test of whether it's still true. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
Every line is a door. Evidence opens in place — verbatim outlet headlines for news sources, verbatim fan text attributed to the community not the individual (never a username). Works with JavaScript off.
The optimistic read: recruiting wins, momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 17 of 54 board posts (31%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (24 posts): 46% positive · 42% neutral · 12% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Season Standing · 2025 · 8-4 · AP #22
Iowa State: Ranked in the AP/Coaches polls, 16-25. National relevance achieved.
Big 12 Standing · 2025
Iowa State is 7th of 16 in the Big 12 at 8-4. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | BYU | 12-2 |
| 2 | Texas Tech | 12-2 |
| 3 | Utah | 11-2 |
| 4 | Houston | 10-3 |
| 5 | Arizona | 9-4 |
| 6 | TCU | 9-4 |
| 7 | Iowa State | 8-4 |
| 8 | Arizona State | 8-5 |
| 9 | Cincinnati | 7-6 |
| 10 | Kansas State | 6-6 |
| 11 | Baylor | 5-7 |
| 12 | Kansas | 5-7 |
| 13 | UCF | 5-7 |
| 14 | West Virginia | 4-8 |
| 15 | Colorado | 3-9 |
| 16 | Oklahoma State | 1-11 |
Schedule Strength · Iowa State · 2025
Average opponent win rate 54% across 12 finalized games. 6 AP top-25 opponents played (TCU, Cincinnati, Kansas State +3 more).
Top Players · 2025
2025NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–202613 picks last 5 cycles. Reliable mid-tier pipeline.
Moment of the Year · Iowa State · 2025
Week 1 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2024 — win 41-42 (away). Last 5 postseason: 1-1.
From the Archive — Iowa State
In 2024, the program won 21-3 vs North Dakota — a comfortable home result that left the 18-point margin on the books.
Go Clones. Cy earns his feed.