Big 12 · Jimmy Rogers, year 1 (1-1) · Jack Trice Stadium · 61,500 · 51,802 avg in 2026
LastL 13–16 at Iowa · Sat Sep 12 · Jaylen Raynor 117 pass yds, 1 TD, 18 rush yds
Nextvs Bowling Green · Sat Sep 19 · 12 pm ET · Jack Trice Stadium · Iowa State by 23.5 · series 2-0, won the last 2 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #162 | #226 | -29.5✗ | Southeast Missouri State | W 38–10 115 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #160 | #13 | +14✓ | @Iowa | L 13–16 112 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #140 | #134 | -23.5 | Bowling Green | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #138 | #30 | Utah | ||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | West Virginia | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @BYU | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Arizona | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | Oklahoma State | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Baylor | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Cincinnati | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 20 | @UCF | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Kansas State |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | @Iowa | L 13–16 | 255 | 0 | 30:18 | +0.075 | 29.1% | 111.2% | |
| Sep 5 | Southeast Missouri State | W 38–10 | 303 | 1 | 23:08 | +0.245 | 35.4% | 176.5% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 279 | 0.5 | +0.160 | 32.3% | 143.9% | ||||
Iowa State spent a hundred years as the program that couldn't, then Matt Campbell made it matter — and in 2025 Ames had to watch the man who fixed everything pack up for Penn State.
The chip is shaped like the team across the state — Iowa State fans are tired of being the little sibling in their own Cy-Hawk rivalry, the program everyone roots for but nobody fears. They wanted Cam…
The season in chapters
What fans said
W 38–10 vs Southeast Missouri State
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 8-4 · last season
✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Warming. 5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Being able to play with a [defensive] line that works that hard, and there’s a ton of effort, and we have much trust with each other to come together. It’s a huge blessing
Next Sep 19
vs Bowling Green · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
the open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Rogers, who previously coached at Washington State, inherits an 8-4 roster with 58% production returning — Iowa State’s love for its underdog identity clashes with the pressure to sustain a rare winning season.
our readdeveloping
Matt Campbell enters his 8th season with an 8-4 record and a win total drop to 4.5, raising questions about sustaining Iowa State's beloved but fragile Big 12 identity.
our readdeveloping
Matt Campbell enters his 8th season at Iowa State with an 8-4 record and a fanbase at 52/100, signaling tension between recent progress and lingering doubts about long-term identity.
our readdeveloping
Carson Hansen converts 3rd/4th-and-short at a below-average rate.
our readbackground
Chase Sowell is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
Iowa State enters 2025 at No. 33 in SP+ — the 8-4 record under Matt Campbell in his sixth year raises the question of whether this leap is sustainable.
our readbackground
Campbell's top-2 portal class in the Big 12 targets DL and IOL — diagnosing last year's 8-4 record while stabilizing a roster with just 58% production returning.
our readfront page
Jimmy Rogers, in his first season at Iowa State, inherits an 8-4 winning record but faces unease among fans who expect more from a program reshaping its identity.
our readdeveloping
Outcome band · Iowa State · 2026
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
Jimmy Rogers took over as Iowa State's head coach, replacing Matt Campbell. It is replaces 10-year head coach Matt Campbell (72-55). It's not the hire that's the story anymore — it's everything it set in motion. The room has bought in, but early believers have been wrong before.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 73 of 2408 board posts (3%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
Iowa State enters 2025 rated No. 33 in SP+ (+9.9). SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
This event was in 424 of 2408 board posts (18%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Iowa State is the program that turned 'losing for 100 years' into one of the most-loved Big 12 stories of the 2020s.
The program ledger
since 2025Jaylen Raynor named Iowa State QB1
SI already says he's undervalued in Big 12 QB rankings — Campbell making it official in the depth chart gives Raynor a chance to prove the doubters wrong in a top-33 SP+ offense.
Win total: 5.5 → 4.5 (▼1)
Win total dropped from 5.5 to 4.5 with conference peers flat — the books see something program-specific.
Iowa State updates depth chart
First depth chart under Rogers is the real test — WR room under pressure, one draft exit, and a #54 class means Ames needs contributors to step into real roles fast, not just fill spots.
Iowa State depth chart projected
Rogers inheriting a defense with a new coordinator fingerprint and Pettaway already turning heads on watch lists — the real question mark is whether pressure at WR translates to a roster thin enough that books were right to shave a full win off the board.
Iowa State defensive depth chart revealed
Depth chart drops with a win total already slid to 4.5 — who's actually filling out Rogers' two-deep at WR is the real story inside this release.
RB Arnold Barnes III transfer commits from Tulane
Abu Sama III is gone and the RB room churned 6-for-6 in the portal — Barnes brings AAC starter reps to a Cyclone backfield that needed proven production, not a project.
Top 3 commits
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
TX leads the 2026 class with 4 commits. National footprint reaching 17 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
101 signees across 25 states, 2023-2026. IA leads the pull.
That is 24.7% of every high-school FBS signee IA produced over those cycles — second only to Iowa, 8 signees back. The full map →
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Iowa State player grew up 309 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Jack Trice Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 122 of 126 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
44th percentile among FBS programs
Roughly even on flags: 10 penalties committed vs. 11 drawn on opponents.
85 penalty yards committed vs. 82 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Outcome band · Iowa State · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026