Arizona 39-3 Iowa State (Oct 24, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Iowa State · Arizona

Iowa State3-43

No. 25 Arizona6-139Final

Sat, Oct 24 · Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Ariz. · Crowd 45,477

No. 25 Arizona routed Iowa State 39-3.

We had Arizona favored. It won.

Next: Iowa State vs Oklahoma State, Sat Oct 31 · 7:00 PM ET · Iowa State underdog by 8.5

Next: Arizona at Texas Tech, Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ET · Arizona underdog by 3.5

Our qb is quite literally dumber than a box of rocks

An Iowa State fan

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Arizona an 89% chance, and the closing betting line (Arizona was a 11.5-point favorite) put it at 82%.

FinalArizona 39-3 Iowa StateArizona wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Bench him please

Q2 0:49 · An Iowa State fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 0:49Iowa State fans demand Raynor be benched after his fumble loss

Arizona’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Arizona -11.5), at 84% for Arizona (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Arizona or Iowa State flair (237 and 452); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Arizona’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Arizona scored on 6 of its 11 drives; Iowa State on 1 of its 10.

Arizona’s drives are teal, Iowa State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans had the most to say in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was steady.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Iowa State fans

raynor“Well, after everything.. I don’t believe Raynor is the issue but I do think Moberly is perhaps maybe better”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: half, field, run, basketball.

What it cost

Arizona’s chance to make the playoff rose from 6% to 7%.

Make the playoff

Iowa State · lost0% → 0%

Arizona · won6% → ▲7%

Win the conference

Iowa State · lost0% → 0%

Arizona · won5% → ▲6%

Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Arizona plays at Texas Tech on Sat Oct 31 with a 7% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Arizona 39, Iowa State 3

Arizona covered −11.5 by 24.5. The total, 42, stayed under 51.5.

Team totals	Iowa State	Arizona
Total yards	221	477
Passing	15 of 27, 169 yds	30 of 37, 336 yds
Rushing	31 for 52 yds	36 for 141 yds
First downs	14	24
Third down	3 of 14	7 of 14
Fourth down	1 of 3	1 of 1
Turnovers	1	0
Penalties	6 for 43 yds	6 for 50 yds
Time of possession	25:34	34:26

Iowa State leaders

Passing Jaylen Raynor 8 of 10, 106 yds
Rushing Aiden Flora 12 for 36 yds; Connor Moberly 10 for 20 yds
Receiving Vince Benetti 3 for 42 yds; Omari Hayes 2 for 29 yds

Arizona leaders

Passing Noah Fifita 27 of 34, 308 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Quincy Craig 9 for 51 yds, 1 TD; Kedrick Reescano 8 for 41 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Isaiah Mizell 8 for 134 yds, 1 TD; Henry Gabalis 1 for 40 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

72° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Arizona Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:54 left4:36 p.m.

Iowa State 0, Arizona 0 · Arizona 84% to win

no rain · 73°

Reescano 4-yd run

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Davis-monthan Afb airport, 5.8 miles away, and Tucson International Airport, 7.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Iowa State · 3-3

Rated 162nd in our preseason ratings, 102nd now, up 60 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 10-24 @ BYUTop 25 No. 10 of 668 teams

lost by 14 as an 11.5-point underdog

W 45-42 vs West Virginia No. 158 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 3-point favorite

L 17-31 vs UtahTop 25 No. 23 of 668 teams

lost by 14 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 55-7 vs Bowling Green No. 152 of 668 teams

won by 48 as a 22.5-point favorite

L 13-16 @ IowaTop 25 No. 17 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 14-point underdog

W 38-10 vs Southeast Missouri State No. 232 of 668 teams

won by 28 as a 29.5-point favorite

Last three games

Arizona · 5-1

Rated 27th in our preseason ratings, 20th now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 52-31 @ West Virginia No. 153 of 668 teams

won by 21 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 34-7 vs Cincinnati No. 94 of 668 teams

won by 27 as a 7-point favorite

W 34-24 @ Washington State No. 50 of 668 teams

won by 10 as an 11.5-point favorite

W 42-17 vs Northern Illinois No. 108 of 668 teams

won by 25 as a 34.5-point favorite

L 17-28 @ BYUTop 25 No. 9 of 668 teams

lost by 11 as a 6.5-point underdog

W 35-7 vs Northern Arizona No. 152 of 668 teams

won by 28 as a 33.5-point favorite

Week by week

Arizona

Wk 2Lat BYU17-28
Wk 3Wvs Northern Illinois42-17
Wk 4Wat Washington State34-24
Wk 5Wvs Cincinnati34-7
Wk 6Wat West Virginia52-31

Iowa State

Wk 2Lat Iowa13-16
Wk 3Wvs Bowling Green55-7
Wk 4Lvs Utah17-31
Wk 5Wvs West Virginia45-42
Wk 6Lat BYU10-24

Power rating by week

Arizona is rated 10.4 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Iowa State’s success rate against Arizona, 82 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Iowa State’s success rate against Arizona’s defense
Iowa State offense, 10th percentile · Arizona defense, 92nd
Iowa State’s passing EPA against Arizona’s defense
Iowa State offense, 33rd percentile · Arizona defense, 91st
Iowa State’s explosive plays against Arizona’s defense
Iowa State offense, 58th percentile · Arizona defense, 6th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Iowa StateArizona

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Arizona leads the series 4-2-1

7 meetings since 1948 · Iowa State won the last meeting

2025Iowa State 39-14
1968Arizona 21-12
1966Arizona 27-24
1964Tie 0-0
1958Iowa State 14-0

Each line is Arizona’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Arizona fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (84th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Arizona favored by 11.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Arizona by 11.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 415 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward Arizona.

The total rose 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Arizona is worth +3.9 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 45th percentile.

50% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (23-23 home, 14-28 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.5 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±7.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 1,165 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Arizona6th2-1
Iowa State12th1-2

Full Big 12 standings

No. 25 Arizona routs Iowa State 39-3