The rest of the season
Two real tests left: No. 3 Utah 36%, Baylor 44%
Win out 9% · expect 2.3 of 4 more wins
BYU's chance to win each game left, from our model: Utah 36%, Baylor 44%, Kansas 71%, Cincinnati 78%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Playoff chance went from 15% to 17%, peaking at 27% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 2nd in the Big 12 · 4-1 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Bear Bachmeier 1,750 · Rushing LJ Martin 344 · Receiving Legend Glasker 585 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow BYU:athletics siteBig 12Instagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #9 | #237 | −50.5✓ +5.5 | Utah Tech | W 63-7 124 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Bachmeier 198 · Rush Eka 59 · Rec Glasker 65 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #9 | #28 | −6.5✓ +4.5 | Arizona | W 28-17 118 | 2-0 | 1-0 | Pass Bachmeier 217 · Rush Martin 98 · Rec Glasker 74 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #9 | #77 | −17.5✓ +0.5 | @Colorado State | W 41-23 123 | 3-0 | 1-0 | Pass Bachmeier 227 · Rush Martin 176 · Rec Glasker 131 |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #7 | #49 | −5.5✓ +1.5 | @TCU | W 17-10 117 | 4-0 | 2-0 | Pass Bachmeier 62 · Rush Bachmeier 66 · Rec Kasper 22 |
| 6 | Oct 9 | #9 | #112 | −11.5✓ +2.5 | Iowa State | W 24-10 117 | 5-0 | 3-0 | Pass Bachmeier 329 · Rush Bachmeier 109 · Rec Glasker 99 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #10 | #3 | +10.5✓ +14.5 | Notre DameTop 10 win | W 28-24 146 Roaring | 6-0 | 3-0 | Pass Bachmeier 224 · Rush Rex 66 · Rec Glasker 66 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #11 | #68 | −7.5✗ −15.5 | @UCF | L 31-39 151 | 6-1 | 3-1 | Pass Bachmeier 257 · Rush Rex 42 · Rec Kasper 129 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #14 | #71 | −17.5✗ −10.5 | Arizona State | W 27-20 136 | 7-1 | 4-1 | Pass Bachmeier 236 · Rush Moa 20 · Rec Glasker 87 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #18 | #14 | +5.5 | @Utah | 12 pm ET · ABC36% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #20 | #18 | Baylor | time TBA44% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Kansas | time TBA71% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Cincinnati | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for BYU, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for BYU: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Arizona State | W 27-20 | 283 | 2 | 28:35 | -0.072 | 34.4% | 1.21 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | @UCF | L 31-39 | 373 | 1 | 27:25 | +0.234 | 39.1% | 1.46 | Most explosive |
| Oct 17 | Notre Dame | W 28-24 | 360 | 2 | 29:02 | +0.161 | 46.4% | 1.16 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 9 | Iowa State | W 24-10 | 506 | 1 | 32:43 | +0.219 | 48.4% | 1.32 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 3 | @TCU | W 17-10 | 216 | 0 | 32:57 | -0.046 | 31.7% | 1.09 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | @Colorado State | W 41-23 | 559 | 2 | 33:24 | +0.324 | 61.0% | 1.18 | |
| Sep 12 | Arizona | W 28-17 | 365 | 0 | 26:19 | +0.460 | 51.7% | 1.27 | |
| Sep 5 | Utah Tech | W 63-7 | 521 | 0 | 33:33 | +0.542 | 65.7% | 1.06 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 398 | 1.0 | +0.228 | 47.3% | 1.22 | ||||
BYU's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
8-2 over the last 10, and won the last one.
This is not the type of situation that you have when a runner steps out of bounds where you can continue in action
17% now · ▼ 2 points in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Root for West Virginia over Texas Tech
Sat 9:30 pm · Moves BYU’s playoff chance by 5 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
The open questionis this a real, durable shift in the program's tier?
Sitake's 26-11 run has BYU in dynasty-caliber territory for the first time since its title era, but the market projects just 8.5 wins this season.
Statusfront page
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · BYU · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 2%; 8 wins 17%; 9 wins 39%; 10 wins 33%; 11 wins 9%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
This event was in 1748 of 11539 board posts (15%) over the last 60 days, a large share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (537 posts): 18% positive · 35% neutral · 47% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
BYU has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 16% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 33% a year ago. It is a 26-11 record over the last three regular seasons. The three-year power rating shows a structural rise, and the coverage is split on whether the schedule will confirm it.
The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.
The 'wait and see' counter: power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-1
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season
BYU is the program that won a national title in 1984, spent four decades in the wilderness waiting for a seat at the table, and in 2025 came within a Big 12 title game of cashing in the patience.
Cougar fans have heard for years that the schedule was soft, that the faith makes the program a curiosity, that the wins came against nobody — and they say the 2025 Big 12 run answered all of it at…
BYU · Game-day weather
Typical at LaVell Edwards Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 87 to 91
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 113 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
BYU is the program with a national title, a religious identity, and the longest patience in college football.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 3 signees
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence lower than any point since 2025
16th percentile among FBS programs
70 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #2, Rece Davis (ESPN), to #11, Koki Riley (The (Baton Rouge) Advocate).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
6Sitake's 26-11 run has BYU in dynasty-caliber territory for the first time since its title era, but the market projects just 8.5 wins this season.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · BYU · 2026