The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: No. 7 BYU 29%
Win out 6% · expect 2.1 of 4 more wins
Kansas's chance to win each game left, from our model: UCF 63%, West Virginia 67%, BYU 29%, Oklahoma State 47%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 71% to 34%, peaking at 71% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 14th in the Big 12 · 1-4 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Isaiah Marshall 1,506 · Rushing Dylan Edwards 574 · Receiving Nik McMillan 466 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Kansas:athletics siteBig 12YouTube
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 | #87 | #178 | −44.5✓ +0.5 | Long Island University | W 51-6 129 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Marshall 246 · Rush Willis 72 · Rec McMillan 130 |
| 2 | Sep 11 | #85 | #42 | +4✗ −13 | Missouri | L 21-38 138 Loud | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Marshall 168 · Rush Edwards 39 · Rec McMillan 52 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #78 | #46 | +5.5✗ −1.5 | Arizona State (N) | L 17-24 140 | 1-2 | 0-1 | Pass Marshall 235 · Rush Edwards 89 · Rec Cox 68 |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #81 | #126 | −21.5✓ +33.5 | Middle Tennessee | W 55-0 125 | 2-2 | 0-1 | Pass Marshall 161 · Rush Edwards 137 · Rec Hayes 50 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #61 | #18 | +15.5✗ −1.5 | @Utah | L 24-41 136 | 2-3 | 0-2 | Pass Marshall 333 · Rush Edwards 22 · Rec Pickett 134 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #53 | #42 | +3✗ −8 | @Kansas State | L 24-35 135 | 2-4 | 0-3 | Pass Marshall 151 · Rush Marshall 117 · Rec McMillan 55 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #58 | #31 | −1.5✗ −0.5 | Baylor | W 25-24 152 Roaring | 3-4 | 1-3 | Pass Marshall 212 · Rush Edwards 156 · Rec McMillan 66 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #61 | #40 | +6.5✓ +0.5 | @TCU | L 16-22 138 | 3-5 | 1-4 | Pass Ballard 285 · Rush Kubecka 58 · Rec Cox 145 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #64 | #79 | −2.5 | UCF | 3:45 pm ET · ESPN263% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #65 | #132 | @West Virginia | time TBA67% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | BYU | time TBA29% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Oklahoma State | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Kansas, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Kansas: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @TCU | L 16-22 | 451 | 2 | 38:57 | -0.081 | 31.8% | 1.34 | One-score loss |
| Oct 24 | Baylor | W 25-24 | 421 | 2 | 36:41 | -0.023 | 37.9% | 1.33 | One-score win |
| Oct 17 | @Kansas State | L 24-35 | 319 | 1 | 23:47 | +0.034 | 32.8% | 1.51 | |
| Oct 10 | @Utah | L 24-41 | 391 | 1 | 20:56 | +0.025 | 38.3% | 1.46 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 3 | Middle Tennessee | W 55-0 | 706 | 0 | 40:55 | +0.537 | 65.9% | 1.12 | Best success rate |
| Sep 19 | Arizona State | L 17-24 | 414 | 3 | 29:18 | +0.140 | 41.3% | 1.39 | One-score loss |
| Sep 11 | Missouri | L 21-38 | 255 | 3 | 28:39 | -0.129 | 29.9% | 1.79 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 4 | Long Island University | W 51-6 | 613 | 1 | 33:06 | +0.569 | 59.0% | 1.30 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 446 | 1.6 | +0.134 | 42.1% | 1.41 | ||||
Kansas's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Undrafted Kansas product Jalon Daniels stunned bettors by leading the winless Buccaneers to the season's biggest upset
Range of outcomes · Kansas · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 5%; 4 wins 23%; 5 wins 40%; 6 wins 27%; 7 wins 6%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-5
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season
Kansas is a basketball cathedral that, for a few Jalon Daniels seasons, made football matter in Lawrence — every win a bonus on top of a banner-filled gym that never needed the gridiron at all.
Fans are tired of being told their school only cares from November to March — that football is a hobby in a basketball town. They point at the Orange Bowl banner and the Leipold revival and ask to…
Kansas · Game-day weather
This Saturday: Cool. Bring a jacket.
UCF at Kansas · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 3:45 pm ET · ESPN2 · Memorial Stadium.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 112 at noon, 113 at 3:30 pm, 113 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Kansas is the basketball school whose Lance Leipold rebuild from 1-11 to bowl games + Jalon Daniels Heisman buzz reset what historic-football-disappointment can become.
Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
24th percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Kansas · 2026