TCU 22-16 Kansas (Oct 31, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Kansas · TCU

Kansas3-516

TCU4-422Final

Sat, Oct 31 · Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas · Crowd 32,549

TCU beat Kansas 22-16.

We had TCU favored. It won.

Next: Kansas vs UCF, Sat Nov 7 · 3:45 PM ET · Kansas favored by 2.5

Next: TCU at Arizona, Fri Nov 6 · 10:15 PM ET · TCU underdog by 8.5

This is why Ballard wasn't starting

A Kansas fan

How it swung

The turning point: Craig 17-yd TD run, TCU goes ahead 22-16 (Q4, 1:11). TCU went from 65% to 92% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave TCU a 70% chance, and the closing betting line (TCU was a 6.5-point favorite) put it at 70%.

TCU came back from 13 down, at one point just a 12% chance in the third quarter.

Kansas led by 13, was as high as 88% in the third quarter, and still lost.

Pick-six

TCU · Q3 4:38

FinalTCU 22-16 KansasTCU wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 4:38Interception4th and 5Ballard intercepted by Carroll at the TCU 40 and returned for a TD, cuts it to 13-7TCU 14% → 36% (+22)
2Q4 1:11Craig 17-yd TD run, TCU goes ahead 22-16TCU 65% → 92% (+27)

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 4:38Interception4th and 5Ballard intercepted by Carroll at the TCU 40 and returned for a TD, cuts it to 13-7Kansas 86% → 64% (−22)
2Q4 1:11Craig 17-yd TD run, TCU goes ahead 22-16Kansas 35% → 8% (−27)

"Two bald men fighting over a comb" Seems like an accurate description for what we are witnessing this afternoon

Q2 0:03 · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 8:40A receiver slammed into an exposed concrete wall near the field.It’s shocking we’ve never had an issue with that concrete right there, and equally shocking we have exposed concrete right therer/CFB game thread
Q2 14:09Kansas fans demand benching Ballard after his lossBench Ballard. Put in Jenkinsr/CFB game thread
Q2 4:52Kansas fans celebrate Cam Pickett's touchdown while TCU fans demand Sonny Dykes be firedSonny Dykes gonna get fired isn’t her/CFB game threadCam Pickett is the most underused player on our offense.r/CFB game thread
Q2 4:20A player was not seriously hurt after running into a wall.So glad Picket wasn't seriously hurt when he ran into that wallr/CFB game thread
Q2 0:03Kansas stops TCU on fourth down to end the first half
Q3 1:06Kansas fans lament losing lead as TCU scores touchdown to take 14-13 leadIf you didn't see this coming you don't know Kansas footballr/CFB game threadWhen is the last time both winning and losing coach were fired after one game?r/CFB game thread
Q4 8:02My theory is a cabal of tcu fans secretly paid the refs to call against tcu to make sure dykes is fired.r/CFB game threadTCU called a timeout to yell at the officials. I don't blame themr/CFB game thread

TCU’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (TCU -6.5), at 78% for TCU (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a TCU or Kansas flair (108 and 393); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show TCU’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

TCU scored on 2 of its 11 drives; Kansas on 4 of its 14.

TCU’s drives are teal, Kansas’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Kansas’s side

Kansas’s best moment: Connington 27-yd field goal, Kansas goes ahead 16-14 (Q4 4:59). It lifted Kansas’s win chance by 17 points.

How Kansas fans took it: “Tomorrows headline today “Sonny Dykes signed to Five Year Contract Extension”” r/CFB game thread

When fans got loud

Busy

It was the fourth quarter that had fans talking the most.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.

A large share of the loudest stretch was about the officiating.

The winner fell to 12%.

Box score

TCU 22, Kansas 16

Kansas covered +6.5 by 0.5. The total, 38, stayed under 45.5.

Team totals	Kansas	TCU
Total yards	451	286
Passing	20 of 35, 285 yds	13 of 29, 141 yds
Rushing	46 for 166 yds	28 for 145 yds
First downs	20	19
Third down	7 of 20	5 of 14
Fourth down	1 of 3	0 of 1
Turnovers	2	1
Penalties	7 for 63 yds	7 for 74 yds
Time of possession	38:57	21:03

Kansas leaders

Passing Cole Ballard 20 of 35, 285 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Keaton Kubecka 3 for 58 yds; Dylan Edwards 20 for 42 yds
Receiving Nahzae Cox 5 for 145 yds; Cam Pickett 10 for 113 yds, 1 TD

TCU leaders

Passing Jaden Craig 13 of 29, 141 yds
Rushing Jaden Craig 15 for 87 yds, 1 TD; Ace Theus 2 for 30 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Kari Ashley 3 for 50 yds; Jordan Dwyer 6 for 46 yds

No rain through the game

74° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Amon G. Carter Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 1:11 left5:59 p.m.

Kansas 16, TCU 22 · TCU 92% to win

no rain · 74°

Craig 17-yd TD run, TCU goes ahead 22-16

Measured at Fort Worth Nas airport, 6.3 miles away, and Fort Worth/meacham airport, 7.6 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Kansas · 3-4

Rated 87th in our preseason ratings, 61st now, up 26 spots.

1-2 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 25-24 vs Baylor No. 35 of 668 teams

won by 1 as a 1.5-point favorite

L 24-35 @ Kansas State No. 42 of 668 teams

lost by 11 as a 3-point underdog

L 24-41 @ UtahTop 25 No. 16 of 668 teams

lost by 17 as a 15.5-point underdog

W 55-0 vs Middle Tennessee No. 151 of 668 teams

won by 55 as a 21.5-point favorite

L 17-24 vs Arizona State No. 52 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 5.5-point underdog

L 21-38 vs MissouriTop 25 No. 39 of 668 teams

lost by 17 as a 4-point underdog

W 51-6 vs Long Island University No. 164 of 668 teams

won by 45 as a 44.5-point favorite

Last three games

TCU · 3-4

Rated 49th in our preseason ratings, 40th now.

1-2 in its last three, including a 11-point win over Baylor as a 3.5-point underdog.

L 20-24 vs West Virginia No. 124 of 668 teams

lost by 4 as a 10-point favorite

W 17-6 @ Baylor No. 31 of 668 teams

won by 11 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 10-17 vs BYUTop 25 No. 9 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 5.5-point underdog

L 13-21 @ UCF No. 80 of 668 teams

lost by 8 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 31-7 vs Arkansas State No. 151 of 668 teams

won by 24 as an 18.5-point favorite

W 63-7 vs Grambling No. 184 of 668 teams

won by 56 as a 44.5-point favorite

L 10-15 vs North Carolina No. 127 of 668 teams

lost by 5 as a 7.5-point favorite

Week by week

TCU

Wk 3Wvs Arkansas State31-7
Wk 4Lat UCF13-21
Wk 5Lvs BYU10-17
Wk 7Wat Baylor17-6
Wk 8Lvs West Virginia20-24

Kansas

Wk 3Lvs Arizona State17-24
Wk 5Wvs Middle Tennessee55-0
Wk 6Lat Utah24-41
Wk 7Lat Kansas State24-35
Wk 8Wvs Baylor25-24

Power rating by week

TCU is rated 2.6 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: TCU’s rushing EPA against Kansas, 63 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

TCU’s rushing EPA against Kansas’s defense
TCU offense, 9th percentile · Kansas defense, 72nd
Kansas’s EPA/play against TCU’s defense
Kansas offense, 52nd percentile · TCU defense, 95th
TCU’s explosive plays against Kansas’s defense
TCU offense, 63rd percentile · Kansas defense, 26th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

KansasTCU

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

TCU leads the series 27-9-4

40 meetings since 1942 · TCU has won the last 5

2024 · neutral siteTCU 38-27
2022TCU 38-31
2021TCU 31-28
2020TCU 59-23
2019TCU 51-14

Each line is TCU’s chance to win through that meeting. TCU is 4-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

TCU fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (37th percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

TCU favored by 6.5 · Total 45.5

How games like this usually go

TCU by 6.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 426 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward TCU.

The total fell 3 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

TCU is worth +4.6 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 58th percentile.

60% at home, 50% on the road against FBS opponents (28-19 home, 22-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.8 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 448 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

TCU 31, Kansas 28Nov 20, 2021

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

TCU13th1-3
Kansas12th1-3

Full Big 12 standings

TCU beats Kansas 22-16