Big 12 Arizona State

Head coach Kenny Dillingham · 4th season · 26-21 at Arizona State

Record4-42-3 Big 12 · T-8th
Bowl2 wins to goto bowl eligibility
Nextvs ColoradoSat Nov 7 · 7:30 pm ET · ESPN2

The rest of the season

4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: No. 24 Arizona 14%

Win out 2% · expect 1.8 of 4 more wins

Arizona State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Colorado 64%, UCF 53%, Oklahoma State 52%, Arizona 14%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Bowl chance went from 75% to 72%, peaking at 75% before a game

75%62%L68%W43%L56%W47%L72%W72%L

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

StandingTied for 8th in the Big 12 · 2-3 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing Cutter Boley 1,360 · Rushing Cardae Mack 523 · Receiving Reed Harris 804 All player stats

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#59 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #62 (+2.3) · FPI #65
The marketArizona State by 3Betting line vs Colorado · our model 64% Arizona State

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Follow Arizona State:athletics siteBig 12XYouTubeInstagram

Schedule and results

Arizona State · 2026 schedule and results4-4Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 56% · 2 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now.Our rank entering each game: #54 to #71
WkDateOur rankOpp rankLineOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Sep 5#54#218−43.5✓ +19.5Morgan StateW 70-7 120Arizona State won 70-7 vs Morgan State. Never in doubt.1-00-0Pass Boley 387 · Rush Brown 80 · Rec Harris 137
2Sep 12#52#6+15.5✗ −12.5@Texas A&ML 20-48 123Arizona State lost 20-48 at Texas A&M. Chance to win started at 11%, low under 1%, high 16%.1-10-0Pass Boley 254 · Rush Brown 66 · Rec Harris 189
3Sep 19#46#78−5.5✓ +1.5Kansas (N)W 24-17 140Arizona State won 24-17 vs Kansas. Chance to win started at 62%, low 39%, high better than 99%.2-11-0Pass Boley 95 · Rush Brown 81 · Rec Harris 48
4Bye week
5Oct 3#53#37−3.5✗ −39.5BaylorL 19-55 153Arizona State lost 19-55 vs Baylor. Chance to win started at 66%, low under 1%, high 76%.2-21-1Pass Boley 304 · Rush Mack 34 · Rec Harris 125
6Oct 10#65#115−20.5✗ −2.5Hawai'iW 30-12 134Arizona State won 30-12 vs Hawai'i. Chance to win started at 90%, low 90%, high better than 99%.3-21-1Pass Boley 189 · Rush Mack 154 · Rec Harris 91
7Oct 17#68#9+16.5✗ −11.5@Texas TechL 25-53 136Arizona State lost 25-53 at Texas Tech. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 13%.3-31-2Pass Keene 256 · Rush Brown 39 · Rec Eusebio 89
8Oct 24#75#42+1.5✓ +12.5Kansas StateW 28-17 144Arizona State won 28-17 vs Kansas State. Chance to win started at 48%, low 29%, high better than 99%.4-32-2Pass Keene 160 · Rush Mack 159 · Rec Harris 147
9Oct 31#71#14+17.5✓ +10.5@BYUL 20-27 136Arizona State lost 20-27 at BYU. Chance to win started at 9%, low 1%, high 15%.4-42-3Pass Fette 166 · Rush Mack 123 · Rec Eusebio 48
10Nov 7#63#103−3Colorado7:30 pm ET · ESPN264% to win
11Nov 14#59#83@UCFtime TBA53% to win
12Nov 21Oklahoma Statetime TBA52% to win
13Nov 28+4.5@Arizonatime TBA
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Arizona State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for Arizona State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 31@BYUL 20-27279131:25-0.00240.3%1.01One-score loss
Oct 24Kansas StateW 28-17359029:06+0.07336.5%1.37Best defensive stand
Oct 17@Texas TechL 25-53415232:33-0.06843.1%1.31Blowout loss
Oct 10Hawai'iW 30-12420028:43+0.29954.1%1.04
Oct 3BaylorL 19-55409328:55-0.06741.9%0.89Defense's roughest night
Sep 19KansasW 24-17228030:42-0.20331.3%1.18One-score win
Sep 12@Texas A&ML 20-48369430:04-0.32934.4%1.21Season-low EPA/play
Sep 5Morgan StateW 70-7681129:48+0.68157.7%1.61Season-high EPA/play
Season average (8 games)3951.4+0.04842.4%1.20

Arizona State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast
Season line5.5 winsover +145
Offense poorPass-first, spreadMethodical, ball-control

Season expectations

Win total1 bookOver/under 5.5
Big 12 title#10 in market+40,000

Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

What fans said

L 20-27 at BYU

Arizona State fans
r/CFB
“what is the point of official command centers with multiple ‘knowledgeable’ rules specialists then?”
3d ago
r/CFB
“We may have lost but Fette Wap in his first start as a true freshman threw for more TDs and score more points against BYU than ‘Heisman Contender’ Noah Fajita”
3d ago

W 28-17 vs Kansas State

Arizona State fans
r/CFB
“should have rolled with Fette and Mack at the beginning but this team looks so much better when Boley isn't under center”
1w ago
r/CFB
“The fans chanted 'we want Fette' after Keene got taken out. They booed when Boley got rolled out and booed some more after each incompletion. IDK if Fette is…”
1w ago
Kansas State fans on Arizona State
r/CFB
“the Arizona State emblem keeps making me think that the scoreboard bug is lit up for a flag”
1w ago

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 28Territorial Cupat AP #24 Arizona · on the road

Recent form · last 10 games

Arizona State has won two of its last five.

4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last one.

Streak L1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 4-6
This is not the type of situation that you have when a runner steps out of bounds where you can continue in action
Pereira · On3the day after Arizona State's 2026 game against BYU

Range of outcomes · Arizona State · 2026

Arizona State’s most likely regular season is 6-6. 90% of outcomes land from 5-7 to 7-5.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

4 wins 7%; 5 wins 29%; 6 wins 40%; 7 wins 21%; 8 wins 2%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor6-6No postseason.
Base7-6A bowl game.
Ceiling9-4A bowl game, 2 more wins.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

More in this tab

This week and this season

Worth watchingGames average 59 combined points, shootouts

What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4

Game feel59shootoutscombined pts / game4th highest-scoring of 16 in the Big 12
Heart rate1-1rarely closein one-score games (2 of 8)14th most one-score games of 16 in the Big 12
Margin+0.0outgunnedavg scoring margin15th best margin of 16 in the Big 12
Tempo69average paceoffensive plays / game8th fastest of 16 in the Big 12
Big plays1.20some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)12th most explosive of 16 in the Big 12
Home crowd50,596avg attendance8th biggest crowds of 16 in the Big 12

Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind

Arizona State was picked dead-last in the Big 12 and instead won the thing — an 11-3 league-champion, first-ever Playoff team built on Cam Skattebo's shoulders, the most joyful out-of-nowhere season the desert has had.

Title DroughtSince 2024 · 2 yrs

Sun Devil fans say the sport picked them last in 2024 and treated the title that followed as a fluke all season — they say the preseason polls still won't take Tempe seriously, and they relish being…

Read the full program story ↓
Game-day weatherKickoff-time weather at home, and the forecast in game week.

Arizona State · Game-day weather

Typical at Mountain America Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 88, noon Saturdays 69

  • noon: 69, Rough
  • 3:30 pm: 72, Rough
  • 7:30 pm: 88, Mixed

Typical weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read it.

At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Arizona State is the Big 12 newcomer whose 2024 11-3 + Big 12 championship + first-ever CFP appearance under Kenny Dillingham completed the rebuild from 2-19 to playoff team in three years.

Offense: PoorRun/Pass: Pass-first, spreadStyle: Methodical, ball-control
Open questionsThe unresolved questions this season keeps asking.

The story

Read the Arizona State story →
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2025 · Wk 15Fell out of the CFP rankingsWeek 14 · Lost 7-23 at home to Arizonawas No. 20
  • 2025 · Wk 14Climbed to No. 20 in the CFP rankingsWeek 13 · Won 42-17 at Colorado↑5 · from No. 25
  • 2025 · Wk 13Entered the CFP rankingsWeek 12 · Won 25-23 at home over West Virginiaat No. 25
  • 2025 · Wk 10Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 9 · Lost 16-24 at home to Houstonwas No. 24
  • 2025 · Wk 9Entered the AP Top 25Week 8 · Won 26-22 at home over Texas Techat No. 24
  • 2025 · Wk 8Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 7 · Lost 10-42 at Utahwas No. 21
  • 2025 · Wk 7Climbed to No. 21 in the AP Top 25↑4 · from No. 25
  • 2025 · Wk 6Entered the AP Top 25Week 5 · Won 27-24 at home over TCUat No. 25
  • 2025 · Wk 3Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 2 · Lost 20-24 at Mississippi Statewas No. 12

Roster and recruiting

Roster16% of production back, talent #45

Roster reload: Arizona State

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning Production16%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#45 nationally247 composite 722.0
Portal Additions24Primary repair: CB
Portal Losses21Primary pressure: S
Draft Loss4NFL Draft departures (4), 1 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#40Development class
Sin 3 - Lyrik Rawls3.60out 5 - Jack Bal3.50Starter Risk
current room: 201 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Box Safety2025 profileplays like an extra linebacker near the line
Transferred in
CBin 4 - Ashton Stamps3.60out 2 - Javan Robinson3.60Need Filled
current room: 188 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Centerfieldererases the deep middle of the field
Transferred in
WRin 3 - Omarion Miller4.62out 3 - Zechariah Sample3.50Upgrade
current room: 197 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Possession ReceiverBoom-or-bustmoves the chains on third down his yards come in chunks — feast or famine
Transferred in
QBin 2 - Cutter Boley3.90out 2 - Sam Leavitt5.00Even
current room: 211 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Pocket Passeroperates within the system without forcing anything
Transferred in
RBin 2 - David Avit3.50out 2 - Raleek Brown4.25Even
current room: 197 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 2 - Owen Long4.12out 1 - Tate Romney3.50Upgrade
current room: 229 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Balanced Linebackeris steady in every phase without a signature trait
Transferred in
Next man up
WR · departedJordyn Tyson3★ · Rd 1, Pk 8
NowJaren Hamilton4★ · FR
Next man up
Full roster (107 players)
CBJoseph Smith, Nasir Stephens
DBAntoine Belgrave-Shorter, Ashton Stamps, Caleb Chester, Daquwan Dunn, Davis Kinney, Jalen Williams, Jessiah Mcgrew, Kyan McDonald, Lyrik Rawls, Montana Warren, Nigel Pringle, Rodney Bimage Jr., Zeth Thues
DEAlbert Smith III, Clayton Smith
DLBlazen Lono-Wong, C.J. Fite, Daeshon Morgan, Emar'Rion Winston, Hyrum Vaeono, Jalen Thompson, Jeffrey Manns, Joshua Shanklin, Julian Hugo, Kirt Vakalahi, Landen Anderson, MyKeil Gardner, Ramar Williams, Rashad McKenzie, Roman Pitre, Salesi Manu, Sinei Tengei, Zac Swanson
LBIsaiah Iosefa, Lee Fuimaono, Martell Hughes, Mason Marden, Oscar Aguilar Jr., Owen Long, Prayer Young-Blackgoat, Ramere Davis, Tristan Bacon, Zyrus Fiaseu
LSGrayson Curtis, Tyler Wigglesworth
OLBrent Helton, Champ Westbrooks, Cortavius Tisaby, Desean Bryant Jr., Doughless Teloma, Filiva'a Lokotui, Jalen Klemm, Jarmaine Mitchell, Luke Baklenko, Maki Stewart, Makua Pule, Manamo'Ui Muti, Marques Uini, Matai Jefferson, Niniva Nicholson, Rob Lapuaho, Siosaia Lapuaho, Tana Alo-Tupuola, Terrell Kim, Wade Helton, Xander Ruggeroli
PKanyon Floyd, Nick McLarty
PKCarson Smith, Carston Kieffer
QBCameron Dyer, Cutter Boley, Jake Fette, Mikey Keene
RBCardae Mack, David Avit, Demarius Robinson, Grayson Rigdon, Jason Brown Jr., Kyson Brown, Marquis Gillis
SAdrian Wilson, Ben Alefaio-Lilii, Maurice Williams, Xavier Skowron
TEAJ Ia, Anthony Miller, Hayden Vercher, James Giggey, Khamari Anderson, Kristian Ingman, Landen Miree
WRChance Ables, Cory Butler Jr., Derek Eusebio, Harry Hassmann, Jalen Moss, Jaren Hamilton, Jeremiah Johnson, Michael Tollefson, Omarion Miller, Plas Johnson, Raiden Vines-Bright, Reed Harris, Uriah Neloms
Top commits

Top 1 commits

2027 class
★★★★☆
Weston Nielsen
QB · Bastrop, TX
#434 national
Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] BYU Defeats Arizona State 27-20
331 upvotes · Oct 2026
[Game Thread] Arizona State @ BYU (3:30 PM ET)
50 upvotes · Oct 2026

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Fans and ratings

Mood vs. historyFan mood is higher than 69% of FBS programs
→

Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now

69th percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. the lineWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.
Fan vs. market↑
69th
Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)
5.5
Sportsbook win total
(28th among FBS)
Fans 41pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 1 book
RivalsRival pulse: Arizona hopeful

Rival pulse

Arizona
Hopeful
+18
Territorial Cup
Face-off →

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

More

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow Arizona State

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

From the booth

A recent episode that covers this team
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site