underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Jordyn Tyson produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
our readdeveloping
Arizona State
1-1Latest
Big 12 · Kenny Dillingham, year 4 (23-18) · Mountain America Stadium · 65,870 · 54,004 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#45 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #38 (+8.7) · FPI #47
The marketArizona State by 5.5vs Kansas · our model 67% Arizona State · a number, not a pick
LastL 20–48 at Texas A&M · Sat Sep 12 · Reed Harris 189 rec yds, 2 TD
Nextvs Kansas · Sat Sep 19 · 12 pm ET · Wembley Stadium · Arizona State by 5.5 · series 1-0 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
Arizona State · 2026 schedule & results1-1
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 | #54 | #218 | -43.5✓ | Morgan State | W 70–7 120 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #52 | #6 | +15.5✗ | @Texas A&M | L 20–48 123 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #46 | #77 | -5.5 | Kansas (N) | |||
| 5 | Oct 3 | Baylor | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Hawai'i | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Texas Tech | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | Kansas State | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | @BYU | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Colorado | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @UCF | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Oklahoma State | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Arizona |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | @Texas A&M | L 20–48 | 369 | 4 | 30:04 | -0.139 | 34.4% | 140.5% | |
| Sep 6 | Morgan State | W 70–7 | 681 | 1 | 29:48 | +0.681 | 57.7% | 160.6% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 525 | 2.5 | +0.271 | 46.1% | 150.5% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Arizona State was picked dead-last in the Big 12 and instead won the thing — an 11-3 league-champion, first-ever Playoff team built on Cam Skattebo's shoulders, the most joyful out-of-nowhere season the desert has had.
Title DroughtSince 2024 · 2 yrs
Sun Devil fans say the sport picked them last in 2024 and treated the title that followed as a fluke all season — they say the preseason polls still won't take Tempe seriously, and they relish being t…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Arizona State fans
Texas A&M fans on Arizona State
Arizona State fans
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 8-5 · last season
Game feel50rock fightscombined pts / game13th highest-scoring of 16 in the Big 12
Heart rate5-3white-knucklein one-score games (8 of 13)2nd most one-score games of 16 in the Big 12
Margin+1.3competitiveavg scoring margin11th best margin of 16 in the Big 12
Tempo71average paceoffensive plays / game5th fastest of 16 in the Big 12
Big plays1.28some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)10th most explosive of 16 in the Big 12
Home crowd54,444avg attendance5th biggest crowds of 16 in the Big 12
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Arizona State has won two of its last five.
Cooling. 5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 5-5
The referees came over and said [Wilson] asked if we could shorten the quarter, and I said, ‘Yeah, of course, whatever he wants, we will do,’
The forecast
Next Sep 19
vs Kansas · neutral site
Season line6.5 winsover -105
SoftStrong
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total2 booksO/U 6.5
CFP championship#30 in field+28000
Big 12 title#6 in market+1800
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
Arizona State · the story right now
7 storylines developing
What Arizona State's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
identitythis cycle~readnew
Kenny Dillingham's 4th season opens with an 8-5 record and a #24 AP finish, but the fanbase remains uneasy as Arizona State navigates its identity shift in the Big 12.
what happenedArizona State: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact
our readdeveloping
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Chamon Metayer is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Derek Eusebio is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Malik McClain is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Arizona State dropped 25 spots in SP+ — the 8-5 record and Big 12 title feel at odds with the 2026 projection, raising questions about sustainability under Kenny Dillingham’s third season.
what happenedArizona State enters 2026 rated No. 60 in 2025 SP+ (+3.9), down 25 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
our readbackground
program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew
Arizona State dropped 25 spots in SP+ — the 8-5 record and No. 33 talent rank suggest Dillingham's fast rebuild faces its first test under Big 12 scrutiny.
what happenedArizona State enters 2025 rated No. 60 in SP+ (+3.9), down 25 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
Died downArizona State's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Outcome band · Arizona State · 2026
Outcome band · Arizona State · 2026Arizona State's most likely season is 8-5 — a bowl game. The floor is 5-7; the ceiling is 10-3.
Floor 5-7Ceiling 10-3Base 8-5
0 wins13 wins
Floor5-7No postseason.
Base8-5A bowl game.
Ceiling10-3A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Arizona State · Developing Confidence
Arizona State: the fanbase's identity shifting.
Arizona State: the fanbase's identity shifting.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers9 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 7% volume
Developing1 new this week
3 days agoReed Harris: 9 rec · 189 yds · 2 TD at Texas A&M
last weekWin total (line at 6.5) still unmoved 13d after "Zyrus Fiaseu out for season"
last weekWin total still unmoved 12d after "Zyrus Fiaseu out for season"
last weekWin total (line at 6.5) still unmoved 11d after "Zyrus Fiaseu out for season"
last weekWin total (line at 6.5) — no reprice yet on "Zyrus Fiaseu out for season"
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Kenny Dillingham's 4th season opens with an 8-5 record and a #24 AP finish, but the fanbase remains uneasy as Arizona State navigates its identity shift in the Big 12.
Source of record: Arizona State: the fanbase's identity shifting.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly From Texas A&M's Win Over Arizon” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly From Texas A&M's Win Over Arizona State”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
📣Believers9 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
“'Winning football formula' powers No. 10 Texas A&M to rout of Arizona State”
houstonchronicle.com · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Game Recap: Texas A&M dominates turnover battle in blowout win over Arizona State”
KBTX News 3 · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Texas A&M football dominates Arizona State 48-20 in a statement win at during Red, White and Blue game”
KXXV · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Texas A&M Answered Three Major Questions Against Arizona State” — the real counter.›
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
“Texas A&M Answered Three Major Questions Against Arizona State”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
💬The boards7% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines.›
This event was in 106 of 1573 board posts (7%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"There are elements to be reassured by, but this team is just not competitive at this point. You do not win by playing 45 minutes against an elite team on the road. This performance"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"At the end of ESPN''s game story: > Up Next: > > Arizona State: Opens conference play at No. 8 Texas A&M next Saturday. clowns."
r/CFB ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Following now · Arizona State · Season outlook Confidence
Arizona State's numbers fell sharply. The model sees a program under real pressure.
Arizona State enters 2026 rated No. 60 in 2025 SP+ (+3.9), down 25 spots from 2024. SP+ reflects three years of tape; a drop this steep is structural, not noise. The recovery window is open but the room knows it. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers9 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 13% volume
Developing1 new this week
3 days agoReed Harris: 9 rec · 189 yds · 2 TD at Texas A&M
last weekWin total (line at 6.5) still unmoved 13d after "Zyrus Fiaseu out for season"
last weekWin total still unmoved 12d after "Zyrus Fiaseu out for season"
last weekWin total (line at 6.5) still unmoved 11d after "Zyrus Fiaseu out for season"
last weekWin total (line at 6.5) — no reprice yet on "Zyrus Fiaseu out for season"
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Arizona State dropped 25 spots in SP+ — the 8-5 record and Big 12 title feel at odds with the 2026 projection, raising questions about sustainability under Kenny Dillingham’s third season.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious consequence of a steep fall isn't one bad year — it's the recruiting and portal feedback loop. A 'they're down' narrative accelerates the attrition that drove the decline. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: Arizona State enters 2026 rated No. 60 in 2025 SP+ (+3.9), down 25 spots from 2024.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly From Texas A&M's Win Over Arizon” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly From Texas A&M's Win Over Arizona State”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
📣Believers9 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“'Winning football formula' powers No. 10 Texas A&M to rout of Arizona State”
houstonchronicle.com · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Game Recap: Texas A&M dominates turnover battle in blowout win over Arizona State”
KBTX News 3 · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Texas A&M football dominates Arizona State 48-20 in a statement win at during Red, White and Blue game”
KXXV · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Texas A&M Answered Three Major Questions Against Arizona State” — the real counter.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
“Texas A&M Answered Three Major Questions Against Arizona State”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
💬The boards13% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in.›
This event was in 203 of 1573 board posts (13%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"There are elements to be reassured by, but this team is just not competitive at this point. You do not win by playing 45 minutes against an elite team on the road. This performance"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"Is it weird that a 28 point loss actually has me feeling better about ASU than I felt before the season started?"
r/CFB ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasons
Rival pulse
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Arizona State is the Big 12 newcomer whose 2024 11-3 + Big 12 championship + first-ever CFP appearance under Kenny Dillingham completed the rebuild from 2-19 to playoff team in three years.
Offense: SoftDefense: Strong
Program ledger
The program ledger
since 2025- 2025 · Wk 15Fell out of the CFP rankingsWeek 14 · Lost 7-23 at home to Arizona
- 2025 · Wk 14Climbed to No. 20 in the CFP rankingsWeek 13 · Won 42-17 at Colorado
- 2025 · Wk 13Entered the CFP rankingsWeek 12 · Won 25-23 at home over West Virginia
- 2025 · Wk 10Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 9 · Lost 16-24 at home to Houston
- 2025 · Wk 9Entered the AP Top 25Week 8 · Won 26-22 at home over Texas Tech
- 2025 · Wk 8Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 7 · Lost 10-42 at Utah
- 2025 · Wk 7Climbed to No. 21 in the AP Top 25
- 2025 · Wk 6Entered the AP Top 25Week 5 · Won 27-24 at home over TCU
- 2025 · Wk 3Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 2 · Lost 20-24 at Mississippi State
Roster
Roster Reload - Arizona State
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production16%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#45 nationally247 composite 722.0
Portal Additions24Primary repair: CB
Portal Losses21Primary pressure: S
Draft Loss4NFL Draft departures (4) — 1 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#40Development class
Sin 3 - Lyrik Rawlsout 5 - Jack BalStarter Risk
current room: 201 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Box Safety2025 profileplays like an extra linebacker near the line
Transferred in
CBin 4 - Ashton Stampsout 2 - Javan RobinsonNeed Filled
current room: 188 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Perimeter Tackler2024 profilegets targeted often and tackles in space
WRin 3 - Omarion Millerout 3 - Zechariah SampleUpgrade
current room: 197 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Possession Receivermoves the chains on third down
QBin 2 - Cutter Boleyout 2 - Sam LeavittEven
current room: 211 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Game Manager2025 profilekeeps the offense on schedule and doesn't lose the game
LBin 2 - Owen Longout 1 - Tate RomneyUpgrade
current room: 229 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Balanced Linebacker2025 profileis steady in every phase without a signature trait
Next man up
Full roster (107 players)
DBAntoine Belgrave-Shorter, Ashton Stamps, Caleb Chester, Daquwan Dunn, Davis Kinney, Jalen Williams, Jessiah Mcgrew, Kyan McDonald, Lyrik Rawls, Montana Warren, Nigel Pringle, Rodney Bimage Jr., Zeth Thues
DLBlazen Lono-Wong, C.J. Fite, Daeshon Morgan, Emar'Rion Winston, Hyrum Vaeono, Jalen Thompson, Jeffrey Manns, Joshua Shanklin, Julian Hugo, Kirt Vakalahi, Landen Anderson, MyKeil Gardner, Ramar Williams, Rashad McKenzie, Roman Pitre, Salesi Manu, Sinei Tengei, Zac Swanson
LBIsaiah Iosefa, Lee Fuimaono, Martell Hughes, Mason Marden, Oscar Aguilar Jr., Owen Long, Prayer Young-Blackgoat, Ramere Davis, Tristan Bacon, Zyrus Fiaseu
OLBrent Helton, Champ Westbrooks, Cortavius Tisaby, Desean Bryant Jr., Doughless Teloma, Filiva'a Lokotui, Jalen Klemm, Jarmaine Mitchell, Luke Baklenko, Maki Stewart, Makua Pule, Manamo'Ui Muti, Marques Uini, Matai Jefferson, Niniva Nicholson, Rob Lapuaho, Siosaia Lapuaho, Tana Alo-Tupuola, Terrell Kim, Wade Helton, Xander Ruggeroli
RBCardae Mack, David Avit, Demarius Robinson, Grayson Rigdon, Jason Brown Jr., Kyson Brown, Marquis Gillis
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Arizona State
6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Cutter Boley named starting QB
Dillingham's staff is literally coaching turnovers out of his game — the job is Boley's to lose, and with 4 draft departures thinning the roster, ASU needs him to protect the ball before he can do anything else.
- News
Zyrus Fiaseu out for season
Fiaseu going down tightens an already thin Sun Devil line — four draft exits already stressed the depth chart, and now Dillingham's dealing with a genuine starter-tier hole heading into Big 12 play.
- News
Reed Harris: 9 rec · 189 yds · 2 TD at Texas A&M
Top 1% receiving yards game since 2021. at Texas A&M (FBS) L 20-48.
- Recruiting
Carson Crawford commits to Arizona State
Four NFL Draft departures and a safety room under pressure — Crawford is Dillingham's development-track answer to a depth problem that's been quietly building while the offense gets all the hype.
- News
Arizona State athletes granted 5th year
Four draft exits, a safety room under pressure, and Sam Leavitt's departure still fresh — Dillingham needed bodies who already know the system, and a fifth year buys exactly that institutional memory.
- Recruiting
Evan Mack commits to Arizona
Third commit from the same California high school — Dillingham's California pipeline is turning into a genuine recruiting corridor, and landing Mack gives the CB room another piece while the safety pressure from four NFL departures still hasn't been answered.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
+3.4 net portal points
(raw ledger: +17.8 — unweighted, no position adjustment)EDGE+7.5
need filled
CB+7.0
need filled
WR+5.1
LB+4.1
TE+3.4
IOL-3.4
DL-3.2
low confidence
S-1.8
starter risk
QB-1.1
K+1.0
low confidence
RB-0.8
OT-0.1
P+0.0
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★☆
Jake Fette
#119 national
Blue-chip pedigree, profiling early as a prototypical quarterback — 13 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Pocket Passer archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Cardae Mack
#304 national
Profiles like a typical incoming running back — 14 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Back archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Julian Hugo
#402 national
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
21
TX · 8CA · 4AZ · 2GA · 1KS · 1LA · 1MO · 1OH · 1+2 more
TX leads the 2026 class with 8 commits. National footprint reaching 10 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
88 signees across 17 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Arizona State player grew up 860 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
7th-farthest from home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%325–1,080 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi14%14 of 103 players
Farthest2,921 miIsaiah Iosefa · Waipahu, HI
Closest0 miCarston Kieffer · Tempe, AZ
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Mountain America Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 103 of 107 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Arizona State Defeats TCU 27-24
[Game Thread] TCU @ Arizona State (9:00 PM ET)
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
How it turned out
Belief history
→
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
58th percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↑
58th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
6.5
Vegas O/U wins
(45th among FBS)
(45th among FBS)
Fans 13pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 2 books
Turnover luck
Fumble luck
50% recovery rate on their own fumbles — below the ~54% league baseline.
3 of 6 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Penalties
Penalty battle
13 penalties committed, 6 drawn on opponents — ceding 42 yards of field position.
84 penalty yards committed vs. 42 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site