The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Kenny Dillingham

Followed Herm Edwards. Kenny Dillingham moved Arizona State from National Program II to National Program I in 4 seasons.

22–17
2023–now · 1 stint
Arizona State
← all coaches

In his own words

The referees came over and said [Wilson] asked if we could shorten the quarter, and I said, ‘Yeah, of course, whatever he wants, we will do,’
HBCU Gameday · · the day after Arizona State's 2026 opener
Today was a really good day with how we structured practice and allowed the quarterbacks to really get a good beat on what we’re going to see. Almost more game plan-y
On3

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerARIZONA STATEPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyArizona State, 2023: 3-9, National Program II2023Arizona State, 2024: 11-3, National Program II2024Arizona State, 2025: 8-5, National Program I2025Arizona State, 2026: in progress, National Program I2026+5.2One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Arizona State, 4 seasons (active)
+5.2
National Program II → National Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Arizona State2023–2026▼ 1.8pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Arizona State14.4pt#59 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

1–2 against his rivals.

Rivalry record
1–2
33.3% · 1 rival
One-score games
11–8
57.9% · margin ≤8
Buyout owed
$24,683,333 (est.)
bigger than 72% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Arizona1–233%
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
4–7 36.4%
National Program
11–9 55.0%
Regional Program
5–1 83.3%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.01
#162 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
-0.03
#181 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2023–now
Arizona Statecaretaker🏆 coach of the year
National Program II → National Program I
Kenny Dillingham moved Arizona State from National Program II to National Program I in 4 seasons.

10th-best Arizona State tenure of 19 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-10.4 pts
#150 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-8.4 pts
#140 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Herm Edwards (2018–2022).

Season2023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record3–911–38–50–0
Postseason—L bowlL bowl—
Recruiting rank#44#48#44#40
Style — pass rate
Pass rate54.139.646.552.2
Coordinators
OCBeau BaldwinMarcus ArroyoMarcus ArroyoMarcus Arroyo
DCBrian WardBrian WardBrian WardBrian Ward
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense18952897
Defense13636966
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%52.437.737.072.5
Red-zone pass%35.429.042.5—
4th-down go%opp. territory50.048.136.7—
Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
99
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
101
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-2
#23 of 187 FBS stints
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Sam Leavitt On3 modeled · $4,500,000Raleek Brown On3 modeled · $1,000,000Cutter Boley On3 modeled · $1,500,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 240 lbs
across 84 of 99 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+6.9 lbs
#49 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#113 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: TX (16), AZ (14), CA (13), FL (7), LA (6)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
61.1
position-weighted
Talent lost
63.3
position-weighted
Net
-2.2
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Sam Leavitt (QB) from Michigan State
Biggest loss: Sam Leavitt (QB) to LSU
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Beau Baldwin → Marcus Arroyo · 2024
18th pct95th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 52.4% → 37.7% (-14.7 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 62% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
203 lbs
6′2″ avg · #640 of 767 · less than most
Running back
208 lbs
5′11″ avg · #344 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
197 lbs
6′1″ avg · #192 of 791 · more than most
Tight end
259 lbs
6′4″ avg · #33 of 731 · more than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
315 lbs
6′4″ avg · #141 of 779 · more than most
D-line
275 lbs
6′3″ avg · #573 of 753 · less than most
Cornerback
188 lbs
6′0″ avg · #497 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys K via the portal
100%
#1 of 56 stints
Buys ATH via the portal
25%
#17 of 146 stints
Postseason detail2024: Lost to Texas 31–39 College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl2025: Lost to Duke 39–42 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

6 NFL Draft picks: Nesta Jade Silvera (2023), Cam Skattebo (2025), Jordyn Tyson (2026), Max Iheanachor (2026), Keith Abney II (2026), Keyshaun Elliott (2026)

Coach of the Year: Big 12 Chuck Neinas Coach of the Year (2024)

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Cam Skattebo (2024)

22–17
How to read this. Bands and archetypes come from the Zeitgeist List’s season-by-season stature model, and only apply once a stint clears 3 coached seasons in our ledger — a newer stint shows its real record with no stature judgment yet.