The Zeitgeist List · Coaching

Where the jobs stand

Every active FBS head-coaching job, with the chance its coach is out by the end of this season: our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract. The outcome counted is being pushed out over results: a firing, a forced resignation, a mutual parting, a contract not renewed. A coach who leaves for a better job or retires on his own terms is not counted. Nothing appears for a coach until his team has played 3 games.

The other way out: who gets poached, the chance a coach leaves for a bigger job.

What last week’s games were worth

The coaches whose last game moved their number most: where each stands now, and where he would stand had it gone the other way. Both outcomes are priced on the model as it stood before kickoff.

Coach	Last game	Now	The other way
Brent Key Georgia Tech	L vs. Pittsburgh	38%	27% had he won
Troy Calhoun Air Force	W vs. UConn	17%	27% had he lost
Tyson Helton Western Kentucky	L vs. Delaware	24%	14% had he won
Gerad Parker Troy	W vs. James Madison	20%	31% had he lost
Dell McGee Georgia State	L vs. Coastal Carolina	29%	19.8% had he won
Mark Carney Kent State	L vs. Sacramento State	25%	16% had he won
Chuck Martin Miami (OH)	L vs. Buffalo	25%	16% had he won
Kirk Ferentz Iowa	W vs. Wisconsin	7%	16% had he lost

Boiling

35% and up · 7 coaches

#	Chance	Coach	Year	Games	Buyout
1	53%	Bryant Vincent UL Monroe	3	8	$1,200,000
2	52%	Joe Moorhead Akron	5	9	$664,063
3	52%	Scotty Walden UTEP	3	8	$1,541,667
4	49%	Ricky Rahne Old Dominion	6	9	$687,886
5	48%	Tim Albin Charlotte	2	8	$2,041,667
6	39%	Chris Creighton · long tenure Eastern Michigan	13	9	$1,500,000
7	38%	Brent Key Georgia Tech	4	8	$11,123,333

Hot

20–35% · 14 coaches

#	Chance	Coach	Year	Games	Buyout
8	34%	Timmy Chang Hawai'i	5	8	$57,576
9	29%	Dell McGee Georgia State	3	8	$1,663,350
10	27%	Greg Schiano Rutgers	7	8	$23,735,156
11	27%	Jeff Choate Nevada	3	8	$2,700,000
12	25%	Mark Carney Kent State	2	9	$434,272 imputed
13	25%	Chuck Martin · long tenure Miami (OH)	13	9	$2,250,000
14	24%	Tyson Helton Western Kentucky	8	8	$2,916,007
15	24%	Eddie George Bowling Green	2	9	$1,676,220
16	24%	Mike Uremovich Ball State	2	8	$1,200,000
17	23%	Jeff Lebby Mississippi State	3	8	$11,006,250
18	22%	Scott Abell Rice	2	8	—
19	20%	Gerad Parker Troy	3	8	$2,025,000
20	20%	Sean Lewis San Diego State	3	9	$4,851,113
21	20%	Clark Lea Vanderbilt	6	8	$10,855,616 imputed

Warm

10–20% · 16 coaches

#	Chance	Coach	Year	Games	Buyout
22	19%	Tony Sanchez New Mexico State	3	8	$2,077,083
23	18%	Rich Rodriguez West Virginia	2	8	$7,645,833
24	17%	Troy Calhoun · long tenure Air Force	20	8	$4,250,216 imputed
25	17%	Bill Belichick North Carolina	2	8	$20,833,333
26	16%	Derek Mason Middle Tennessee	3	8	$3,083,333
27	14%	Tony Elliott Virginia	5	9	$11,175,000
28	14%	Lance Leipold Kansas	6	8	$22,930,000
29	14%	Major Applewhite South Alabama	3	8	$1,844,267
30	13%	K.C. Keeler Temple	2	8	—
31	12%	Ken Niumatalolo San José State	3	9	$4,012,500
32	12%	Blake Anderson Southern Miss	1	8	—
33	12%	Barry Odom Purdue	2	8	$25,125,000
34	12%	Bill O'Brien Boston College	3	8	—
35	10%	Jerry Mack Kennesaw State	2	8	$1,800,000
36	10%	Butch Jones Arkansas State	6	8	$2,245,833
37	10%	Willie Simmons Florida International	2	8	$1,550,602 imputed

Cool

under 10% · 95 coaches

#	Chance	Coach	Year	Games	Buyout
38	9.7%	Brian Newberry Navy	4	8	—
39	9.5%	Brent Venables Oklahoma	5	8	$36,158,333
40	9%	Scott Satterfield Cincinnati	4	8	$12,008,333
41	8%	Joe Harasymiak Massachusetts	2	8	$5,200,000
42	8%	Deion Sanders Colorado	4	8	$33,625,000
43	8%	P.J. Fleck · long tenure Minnesota	10	8	$26,600,000
44	8%	Dowell Loggains App State	2	8	$2,450,000
45	7%	Kirk Ferentz · long tenure Iowa	26	8	$25,729,167
46	7%	Mike Elko Texas A&M	3	8	$21,875,000
47	6%	Sonny Cumbie Louisiana Tech	5	8	$875,000
48	6%	Jay Sawvel Wyoming	3	8	$3,691,667
49	6%	Sonny Dykes TCU	5	8	$26,396,475 imputed
50	6%	Tre Lamb Tulsa	2	8	—
51	6%	Fran Brown Syracuse	3	8	—
52	5%	Jeff Monken · long tenure Army	13	8	$7,700,000
53	5%	Michael Desormeaux Louisiana	5	8	$1,847,708
54	5%	Alonzo Carter Sacramento State	1	9	—
55	5%	Matt Drinkall Central Michigan	2	8	$2,000,000
56	5%	Kirby Moore Washington State	1	9	—
57	5%	Pat Narduzzi · long tenure Pittsburgh	12	9	$27,570,374 imputed
58	5%	Dabo Swinney · long tenure Clemson	18	8	$60,000,000
59	5%	Blake Harrell East Carolina	2	8	$2,245,833
60	5%	Scott Frost UCF	2	8	$13,793,750
61	5%	Pat Fitzgerald Michigan State	1	8	—
62	4%	Shane Beamer South Carolina	6	8	$27,903,958
63	4%	Kenny Dillingham Arizona State	4	8	$24,683,333
64	4%	Eli Drinkwitz Missouri	7	8	$28,875,685
65	4%	Clay Helton Georgia Southern	5	8	$3,159,375
66	3%	Willie Fritz Houston	3	8	$10,375,000
67	3%	Luke Fickell Wisconsin	4	8	$27,493,333
68	3%	Rhett Lashlee SMU	5	8	$6,169,714 imputed
69	3%	Alex Mortensen UAB	1	8	—
70	3%	Ryan Silverfield Arkansas	1	8	—
71	3%	Bronco Mendenhall Utah State	2	8	$11,270,153
72	2%	Jedd Fisch Washington	3	8	$33,686,666
73	2%	Zach Kittley Florida Atlantic	2	8	$5,083,333
74	2%	David Braun Northwestern	4	8	—
75	2%	Bret Bielema Illinois	6	8	$49,491,667
76	2%	Ryan Carty Delaware	2	8	—
77	2%	Lance Taylor Western Michigan	4	9	$2,358,750
78	2%	Tosh Lupoi California	1	9	—
79	2%	Tavita Pritchard Stanford	1	9	—
80	2%	Kalani Sitake · long tenure BYU	11	8	—
81	2%	Ryan Beard Coastal Carolina	1	8	—
82	2%	Pete Lembo Buffalo	3	9	$2,205,000
83	1%	Jimmy Rogers Iowa State	1	8	—
84	1%	Jim Mora Colorado State	1	8	—
85	1%	Casey Woods Missouri State	1	8	—
86	1%	Joey McGuire Texas Tech	5	8	$9,940,761
87	1%	Josh Heupel Tennessee	6	8	$37,500,000
88	1%	Brent Brennan Arizona	3	8	$10,650,000
89	1%	Collin Klein Kansas State	1	8	—
90	1%	Manny Diaz Duke	3	8	—
91	1%	Tony Gibson Marshall	2	8	$4,166,667
92	1%	Kyle Whittingham Michigan	1	8	—
93	1%	Lincoln Riley USC	5	9	$52,466,918 imputed
94	1%	Matt Campbell Penn State	1	8	—
95	1%	Will Hall Tulane	1	8	—
96	1%	Eric Morris Oklahoma State	1	8	—
97	1%	Matt Rhule Nebraska	4	8	$49,612,500
98	1%	Alex Golesh Auburn	1	8	—
99	1%	JaMarcus Shephard Oregon State	1	8	—
100	1%	Jeff Brohm Louisville	4	8	$33,633,333
101	1%	Dan Mullen UNLV	2	8	$11,433,333
102	1%	G.J. Kinne Texas State	4	8	$9,553,125
103	1%	Dan Lanning Oregon	5	8	$56,733,333
104	1%	Steve Sarkisian Texas	6	8	$60,307,500
105	<1%	Matt Entz Fresno State	2	8	$4,800,000
106	<1%	Jon Sumrall Florida	1	8	—
107	<1%	Jason Candle UConn	1	8	—
108	<1%	James Franklin Virginia Tech	1	8	—
109	<1%	Jeff Traylor UTSA	7	8	$11,165,000
110	<1%	Ryan Day Ohio State	8	8	$70,916,667
111	<1%	Charles Kelly Jacksonville State	2	8	$3,470,833
112	<1%	Lane Kiffin LSU	1	8	—
113	<1%	Pete Golding Ole Miss	1	8	—
114	<1%	Will Stein Kentucky	1	8	—
115	<1%	Kirby Smart · long tenure Georgia	11	8	$105,107,583
116	<1%	Charles Huff Memphis	1	9	—
117	<1%	Brian Hartline South Florida	1	8	—
118	<1%	Kalen DeBoer Alabama	3	8	$60,843,750
119	<1%	Spencer Danielson Boise State	3	8	$6,650,025
120	<1%	Neal Brown North Texas	1	8	—
121	<1%	Jake Dickert Wake Forest	2	8	—
122	<1%	Mike Jacobs Toledo	1	8	—
123	<1%	Tim Polasek North Dakota State	1	9	—
124	<1%	Billy Napier James Madison	1	9	—
125	<1%	Jamey Chadwell Liberty	4	8	$27,445,742 imputed
126	<1%	Mario Cristobal Miami	5	8	$33,221,422 imputed
127	<1%	Bob Chesney UCLA	1	8	—
128	<1%	Marcus Freeman Notre Dame	5	8	$37,422,163 imputed
129	<1%	John Hauser Ohio	1	9	—
130	<1%	Jason Eck New Mexico	2	8	$5,195,833
131	<1%	Morgan Scalley Utah	1	8	—
132	<1%	Curt Cignetti Indiana	3	9	$56,700,000