The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Derek Mason

Followed Rick Stockstill. Derek Mason slid Middle Tennessee from Regional Program III to Regional Program IV in 3 seasons.

The journeyman
33–73
2014–now · 2 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

He [Lacy] bought into what we were talking about
Mtsusidelines · · 3 days after Middle Tennessee's 2026 opener
He takes care of the ball
Mtsusidelinesthe day before the opener
We’re going to get a Murray State team that’s hungry, they play hard
Mtsusidelines5 days before the opener
He’s bratty, he’s rambunctious
Mtsusidelines
I hired Chris Browne before I hired Anthony Scelfo
Mtsusidelines

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Vanderbilt, 7 seasons
−3.9
Regional Program I → Regional Program II.
Middle Tennessee, 3 seasons (active)
−5.0
Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%60%Vanderbilt2014–2020▼ 0.6ptMiddle Tennessee2024–2026▲ 6.4pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Vanderbilt10.5pt#123 of 258 · a typical amount
Middle Tennessee6.4pt#205 of 258 · less than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

4–9 against his rivals. Just 1–5 against Mark Stoops.

Rivalry record
4–9
30.8% · 3 rivals
One-score games
13–16
44.8% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Buyout owed
$3,083,333
bigger than 33% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Missouri2–433%
Tennessee2–340%
The toughest matchupNemesis
vs. Mark Stoops1–5
6 meetings, 2014–2019
’14 L’15 W · erased a 3-pt deficit’16 L’17 L · blew a 7-pt lead’18 L · blew a 7-pt lead’19 L · blew a 11-pt lead
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–1 0.0%
Blue Blood
0–4 0.0%
Power Program
7–24 22.6%
National Program
4–13 23.5%
Regional Program
13–19 40.6%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.30
#260 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.29
#289 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2024–now
Middle Tennesseecaretaker
Regional Program III → Regional Program IV
Derek Mason slid Middle Tennessee from Regional Program III to Regional Program IV in 3 seasons.

3rd-best Middle Tennessee tenure of 3 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+2.7 pts
#97 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-23.8 pts
#185 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Rick Stockstill (2006–2023).

Season202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record3–93–90–0
Postseason
Recruiting rank#119#98#119
Style — pass rate
Pass rate56.061.462.4
Coordinators
OCBodie ReederBodie ReederAnthony Scelfo
DCBrian StewartBrian StewartBrian Stewart
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense315359
Defense62721
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%49.257.055.4
Red-zone pass%45.155.283.3
4th-down go%opp. territory43.837.5
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
44
2.9★ avg rating
Portal departures
79
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-35
#75 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 241 lbs
across 27 of 44 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+7.1 lbs
#49 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#129 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: FL (8), GA (5), TN (3), AL (3), OH (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
51.5
position-weighted
Talent lost
54.5
position-weighted
Net
-3.1
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Xavier Williams (QB) from UCF
Biggest loss: Luther Richesson (QB) to Central Arkansas
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Bodie Reeder → Anthony Scelfo · 2026
53rd pct59th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 57.0% → 55.4% (-1.6 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 32% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
214 lbs
6′1″ avg · #329 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
197 lbs
5′11″ avg · #696 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
190 lbs
6′1″ avg · #530 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
231 lbs
6′3″ avg · #699 of 731 · less than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
304 lbs
6′4″ avg · #572 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
289 lbs
6′1″ avg · #283 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
232 lbs
6′1″ avg · #207 of 772 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Cornerback via the portal
100%
#1 of 236 stints
Buys Interior line via the portal
64%
#38 of 224 stints
Grows Edge from high school
73%
#160 of 208 stints
Grows Quarterback from high school
80%
#178 of 206 stints

1 NFL Draft pick: Parker Hughes (2026)

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Keylan Rutledge (2025)

AI Narratives — “Middle Tennessee — stat check”.

6–18
2014–2020
Vanderbiltcaretaker
National Program III → Regional Program I
Derek Mason slid Vanderbilt from National Program III to Regional Program I in 7 seasons.

8th-best Vanderbilt tenure of 20 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-20.4 pts
#178 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-13.0 pts
#159 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed James Franklin (2011–2013) · succeeded by Clark Lea (2021–2026).

Season2014201520162017201820192020Trend
Record & result
Record3–94–86–75–76–73–90–8
PostseasonL bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#46#49#54#65#41#56#52
Style — pass rate
Pass rate48.243.244.253.748.951.247.6
Coordinators
OCKarl DorrellAndy LudwigAndy LudwigAndy LudwigAndy LudwigGerry GdowskiTodd Fitch
DCDave KotulskiDerek MasonDerek MasonJason TarverJason TarverTed Roof
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense1839538977
Defense2896743011340
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%31.740.439.750.645.845.741.9
Red-zone pass%30.635.440.247.837.937.840.7
4th-down go%opp. territory24.023.525.033.334.116.729.6
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Karl Dorrell → Andy Ludwig · 2015
1st pct8th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 31.7% → 40.4% (+8.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 101% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Andy Ludwig → Gerry Gdowski · 2019
89th pct7th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 45.8% → 45.7% (-0.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 59% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Dave Kotulski → Derek Mason · 2015
28th pct96th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2016: Lost to NC State 17–41 Camping World Independence Bowl2018: Lost to Baylor 38–45 Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl

11 NFL Draft picks: Jordan Matthews (2014), Wesley Johnson (2014), Dre Hal (2014), Stephen Weatherly (2016), Zach Cunningham (2017), Will Holden (2017), Oren Burks (2018), Joejuan Williams (2019) + 3 more

27–55
How to read this. Bands and archetypes come from the Zeitgeist List’s season-by-season stature model, and only apply once a stint clears 3 coached seasons in our ledger — a newer stint shows its real record with no stature judgment yet.