The Zeitgeist List · coaching

David Beaty

Followed Charlie Weis. David Beaty slid Kansas from Regional Program III to Regional Program IV in 4 seasons.

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2015–2018 · 1 stint

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Kansas, 4 seasons

−5.5

Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Kansas5.8pt#218 of 258 · less than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

0–4 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against Bill Snyder.

Rivalry record

0–4

0.0% · 1 rival

One-score games

2–5

28.6% · margin ≤8

Rivalry ledger

Kansas State0–40%

The toughest matchup

vs. Bill Snyder0–4

4 meetings, 2015–2018

’15 L’16 L · blew a 3-pt lead’17 L · blew a 3-pt lead’18 L · blew a 3-pt lead

0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Power Program

2–24 7.7%

National Program

0–8 0.0%

Regional Program

2–8 20.0%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

-0.82

#318 of 319 · less than most

Defense marginal impact

-0.19

#263 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2015–2018

Kansascaretaker

Regional Program III → Regional Program IV

David Beaty slid Kansas from Regional Program III to Regional Program IV in 4 seasons.

20th-best Kansas tenure of 21 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-41.1 pts

#208 of 208 · less than most

Defense vs. talent

-20.1 pts

#176 of 208 · less than most

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Charlie Weis (2012–2014) · succeeded by Les Miles (2019–2020).

Season	2015	2016	2017	2018
Record & result
Record	0–12	2–10	1–11	3–9
Postseason	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#73	#70	#71	#60
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	50.4	53.4	54.1	48.2
Coordinators
OC	Rob Likens	Rob Likens	Doug Meacham	Doug Meacham
DC	Clint Bowen / Kenny Perry	Clint Bowen / Kenny Perry	Clint Bowen / Kenny Perry	Clint Bowen
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	2	4	3	23
Defense	4	53	23	35
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	45.1	54.3	49.2	39.1
Red-zone pass%	36.4	48.6	43.7	46.3
4th-down go%opp. territory	42.9	35.7	36.6	21.2

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Rob Likens → Doug Meacham · 2017the system held

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 49.7% → 44.2% (-5.5 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 40% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: co-Clint Bowen / co-Kenny Perry → Clint Bowen · 2018

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

4 NFL Draft picks: Ben Heeney (2015), JaCorey Shepherd (2015), Dexter McDonald (2015), Dorance Armstrong Jr. (2018)

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