The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: Liberty 3%
Win out <1% · expect 1.6 of 4 more wins
Middle Tennessee's chance to win each game left, from our model: Western Kentucky 43%, Liberty 3%, Sam Houston 55%, New Mexico State 58%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 46% to 59%, peaking at 81% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 3rd in the Conference USA · 2-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Roman Gagliano 1,587 · Rushing Antonio Martin 586 · Receiving Cam'Ron Lacy 510 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #133 | #254 | −22.5✓ +1.5 | Murray State | W 38-14 97 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Gagliano 200 · Rush Martin 103 · Rec Lacy 118 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #136 | #24 | +11.5✓ +9.5 | @Marshall | L 26-28 130 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Gagliano 243 · Rush Gagliano 58 · Rec Lacy 72 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #128 | #176 | +3.5✓ +10.5 | Nevada | W 27-20 126 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Gagliano 173 · Rush Martin 104 · Rec Allen 65 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #124 | #62 | +7✗ −3 | @Jacksonville State | L 13-23 124 | 2-2 | 0-1 | Pass Gagliano 216 · Rush Martin 106 · Rec Lacy 88 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #126 | #81 | +21.5✗ −33.5 | @Kansas | L 0-55 125 | 2-3 | 0-1 | Pass Gagliano 81 · Rush Martin 40 · Rec Butler 44 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 13 | #165 | #95 | +1.5✓ +4.5 | Delaware | W 33-30 125 | 3-3 | 1-1 | Pass Gagliano 291 · Rush Martin 48 · Rec Perdue 103 |
| 8 | Oct 20 | #167 | #106 | +10.5✓ +13.5 | @Florida International | W 26-23 124 | 4-3 | 2-1 | Pass Gagliano 200 · Rush Brown Jr. 158 · Rec Lacy 68 |
| 9 | Oct 28 | #139 | #165 | +1.5✗ −14.5 | Kennesaw State | L 28-44 137 | 4-4 | 2-2 | Pass Gagliano 183 · Rush Martin 106 · Rec Lacy 73 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #167 | #101 | +1.5 | Western Kentucky | 3:30 pm ET43% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #173 | #35 | @Liberty | 3:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network3% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Sam Houston | 2 pm ET55% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | New Mexico State | 2 pm ET | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Middle Tennessee, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Middle Tennessee: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | Kennesaw State | L 28-44 | 380 | 2 | 40:19 | -0.173 | 37.0% | 1.08 | |
| Oct 20 | @Florida International | W 26-23 | 448 | 0 | 33:13 | +0.206 | 46.3% | 1.23 | One-score win |
| Oct 13 | Delaware | W 33-30 | 396 | 2 | 27:45 | +0.254 | 41.9% | 1.54 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | @Kansas | L 0-55 | 136 | 1 | 19:05 | -0.471 | 16.3% | 1.64 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | @Jacksonville State | L 13-23 | 319 | 0 | 27:22 | +0.115 | 43.1% | 1.11 | |
| Sep 19 | Nevada | W 27-20 | 330 | 0 | 34:28 | +0.154 | 36.2% | 1.26 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 12 | @Marshall | L 26-28 | 352 | 1 | 32:46 | +0.169 | 42.9% | 1.04 | One-score loss |
| Sep 5 | Murray State | W 38-14 | 396 | 0 | 25:42 | +0.402 | 50.0% | 1.30 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 345 | 0.8 | +0.082 | 39.2% | 1.27 | ||||
Middle Tennessee's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
W 26-23 at Florida International
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Obviously, I didn’t play my best game, I’ll be the first one to tell you that I played bad, but you ask all these other guys that, they probably missed stuff here and there
Range of outcomes · Middle Tennessee · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 10%; 5 wins 35%; 6 wins 39%; 7 wins 15%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
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This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Conference USA teams the same season
Middle Tennessee spent eighteen years as Rick Stockstill's steady program — the Murfreesboro stalwart that occasionally ambushed a power — and now, two coaches and two 3-9 seasons later, is trying to remember how to be that again.
Fans remember the Saturdays the Blue Raiders walked into a bigger program's stadium and won, and bristle that the national take treats Murfreesboro as background — a program that has, more than…
Middle Tennessee · Game-day weather
Typical at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 93, noon and 3:30 pm Saturdays 87
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Middle Tennessee is the Conference USA program whose Rick Stockstill 2006-2024 era + Floyd Stadium + 2018 Hawaii Bowl championship define what historic-Tennessee-G5-football looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
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Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Middle Tennessee · 2026