The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: Middle Tennessee 45%
Win out 1% · expect 1.3 of 4 more wins
Sam Houston's chance to win each game left, from our model: Jacksonville State 22%, Kennesaw State 36%, Middle Tennessee 45%, Florida International 29%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Standing10th in the Conference USA · 0-4 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Landyn Locke 1,653 · Rushing Alton McCaskill 232 · Receiving Tim Burns Jr. 392 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Sam Houston:athletics siteConference USA
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #165 | #113 | +15.5✓ +12.5 | @Troy | L 21-24 136 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Locke 335 · Rush McCaskill 51 · Rec O'Neill 86 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #160 | #113 | +12.5✓ +6.5 | Tulsa | L 17-23 139 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Locke 316 · Rush McCaskill 48 · Rec Parker 101 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #156 | #194 | −21✓ +38 | Nicholls | W 59-0 134 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Locke 322 · Rush Parker 52 · Rec Maxwell 86 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #141 | #7 | +34.5✗ −0.5 | @Texas Tech | L 14-49 131 | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass Locke 195 · Rush McCaskill 25 · Rec Burns Jr. 61 |
| 5 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 6 | Oct 8 | #138 | #72 | +13.5✗ −18.5 | @Liberty | L 3-35 112 | 1-4 | 0-1 | Pass Locke 138 · Rush Dowdy 42 · Rec O'Neill 39 |
| 7 | Oct 14 | #147 | #82 | +1.5✗ −11.5 | Western Kentucky | L 3-16 131 | 1-5 | 0-2 | Pass Locke 112 · Rush Dowdy 55 · Rec Reed 51 |
| 8 | Oct 21 | #165 | #145 | +3✗ −3 | New Mexico State | L 24-30 124 | 1-6 | 0-3 | Pass Locke 235 · Rush Dowdy 17 · Rec Burns Jr. 117 |
| 9 | Oct 27 | #176 | #164 | +5.5✗ −15.5 | @Missouri State | L 3-24 117 | 1-7 | 0-4 | Pass Bailey 258 · Rush Dowdy 18 · Rec O'Neill 74 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #197 | #72 | +16.5 | @Jacksonville State | 7 pm ET · CBS Sports Network22% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #194 | #137 | Kennesaw State | 2 pm ET36% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Middle Tennessee | 2 pm ET45% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Florida International | 2 pm ET | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Sam Houston, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Sam Houston: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | @Missouri State | L 3-24 | 284 | 1 | 29:08 | -0.073 | 31.7% | 1.57 | |
| Oct 21 | New Mexico State | L 24-30 | 246 | 2 | 25:26 | -0.145 | 25.9% | 1.86 | Most explosive |
| Oct 14 | Western Kentucky | L 3-16 | 177 | 1 | 27:37 | -0.282 | 25.0% | 1.05 | |
| Oct 8 | @Liberty | L 3-35 | 243 | 0 | 29:04 | -0.217 | 28.8% | 1.24 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 26 | @Texas Tech | L 14-49 | 269 | 3 | 35:06 | -0.290 | 31.3% | 1.46 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | Nicholls | W 59-0 | 619 | 0 | 35:31 | +0.496 | 52.6% | 1.35 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Tulsa | L 17-23 | 371 | 1 | 29:42 | +0.069 | 43.1% | 1.15 | One-score loss |
| Sep 5 | @Troy | L 21-24 | 373 | 1 | 30:51 | +0.168 | 47.1% | 1.21 | One-score loss |
| Season average (8 games) | 323 | 1.1 | -0.034 | 35.7% | 1.36 | ||||
Sam Houston's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
1-9 over the last 10, and lost the last five.
We came back out and tried to reestablish a little bit of a run game in the second half, but until we get that fixed, it’s going to be tough to play one-dimensional football
Range of outcomes · Sam Houston · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
1 wins 20%; 2 wins 40%; 3 wins 30%; 4 wins 9%; 5 wins 1%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 1-7
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Conference USA teams the same season
Sam Houston won a national championship as recently as 2020, jumped to the FBS, won its first bowl in 2024 — and then the coach who did all of it left for Temple and the whole thing came apart at 2-10.
Bearkat fans don't carry a grudge so much as a quiet 'we were just there' — a 2020 ring and a 2024 bowl trophy that no 2-10 season can take back. They know what this program is capable of because…
Sam Houston is the Conference USA newcomer whose 2020 FCS national championship + 2023 FBS reclassification + K.C. Keeler era make them the most-recent FCS-to-FBS-conference ascent in CFB.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 3 signees
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Sam Houston · 2026