CFB Zeitgeist

Home Conferences FBS 2026 season

VERDICT BEGINS · 2026

Conference USA

Coaching Premium League

The 2026 Conference USA season is underway — Delaware holds the early power lead, but the picture is still open.

Conference USA is outperforming its raw power profile. The league body of work is stronger than the market would expect.

#9overall
#9in FBS
+16.6RR50
+20.4upper strength
10teams
0top-25 teams
Power snapshot Projected 2026 standing

Coaching Premium League

North Texas went 12-2 in 2025 with a recruiting class ranked #112 nationally. Old Dominion went 10-3 with a #102 class. UTSA finished at SP+ #26 with a #107 recruiting rank. The top three teams in Conference USA all carry coaching premiums above +80 — which means the coaches in this conference are collectively doing more with less than nearly any other league in FBS. Meanwhile UTEP went 2-10 with the #70 recruiting class.

0 top-25 teams.

The depth argument for this conference rests on how many credible opponents are clustered behind the leader. The gap between the top and bottom is narrow — a sign of genuine parity.

Where things stand right now.

The 2026 Conference USA season is underway — Delaware holds the early power lead, but the picture is still open.

Tools Matchup Simulator Compare Teams Playoff Forecast Style map Head to head Power map

North Texas Went 12-2 With the 112th Recruiting Class

North Texas's coaching premium is +100 — the gap between their #112 recruiting rank and their #12 SP+ rating. Twelve wins in 2025 from a program in Denton, Texas that competes for recruits in the shadow of Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor. No transfer portal intervention, no sudden spike in NIL budget: just a coaching staff that turns players other programs passed over into a team that wins twelve games. If Conference USA gets talked about nationally, this is why.

Why it matters →

Old Dominion's 10-3 Season Matches the North Texas Story

Old Dominion went 10-3 in 2025 with a recruiting class ranked #102 nationally — a +91 coaching premium that makes them the second-best overperformer in the conference. The program that started as an FCS power in Norfolk, Virginia and made the move to FBS in 2012 has spent more than a decade proving it belongs. Ten wins in 2025 is the most compelling argument they've made yet.

Why it matters →

UTEP Recruited at #70 and Went 2-10

UTEP's coaching gap is -51: a #70 recruiting class — the conference's best after Rice's #70 match — produced a 2-10 season. Charlotte went 1-11. Middle Tennessee went 3-9 with a #98 class. The bottom of Conference USA is a study in what happens when G5 programs recruit well enough to create expectations but can't close the gap on the field. Every win by North Texas and Old Dominion lands differently when you know this is the same conference.

Why it matters →

Active arcs our read

All arcs →
Fan pulse Last 30 days · 824 mentions
17% positive 54% neutral 29% negative
Jacksonville State
244
↓ negative
Kennesaw State
236
↓ negative
Florida International
106
↓ negative
Sam Houston
67
→ neutral
Delaware
55
↓ negative
Liberty
39
↓ negative
Fan confidence — FBS percentile

Where each Conference USA program stands nationally in fan sentiment (100th = most positive in FBS, 0 = least). Conference median: 74th percentile.

Missouri State
Bullish+10
Delaware
Bullish
Liberty
Leaning+15
Sam Houston
Leaning-9
Kennesaw State
Souring-16

Most volatile: Liberty

Fan confidence has swung 72 percentile points in the last 8 weeks — currently at the 74th percentile nationally.

The coaching premium
Recruiting class rank vs. SP+ performance — where coaches add or subtract value
Above line = coaching premium
Below line = underperforming
Gap = recruiting rank minus SP+ rank

Positive gap means the coaching staff won more than the recruiting class predicted. Data: Conference USA teams, 10 programs.

Coaching grades
Coaching premium ↑
Delaware
+74
Missouri
+35
Western
+27
Jacksonville
+23
Liberty
+9
Underperforming ↓
Kennesaw
-23
Sam
-13
Florida
-7

Standings

2026 season, in progress — sorted by power rating. Stature tag = interim Zeitgeist calibration (medium confidence).

Projected Standings · Conference USA · 2026

Win Projection

Odds of winning at least N conference games from current power ratings — full slate played out, not locked to results. AVG = expected wins; W–L = most-likely record.

# Team W–L PWR AVG ≥8≥7≥6≥5≥4≥3≥2≥1
Favorites
1Delaware5–3+6.45.231743719098
2Western Kentucky5–3+4.64.92123463859699
Challengers
3Jacksonville State5–3+3.24.7182755819499
4Liberty4–4-0.04.141538668797
5Missouri State4–4-0.13.931234638697
The Field
6Florida International4–4-1.53.821131598396
7Middle Tennessee4–4-2.13.6282551789499
8New Mexico State3–5-2.83.3162044729199
Rebuilding
9Sam Houston3–5-4.03.3161944729199
10Kennesaw State3–5-3.73.2151740688998

How they play

Six advanced-stat dimensions per team, ranked against all 134 FBS programs, 2026 season. Every column reads higher-is-better. Click a column to sort.

ScoringConvertsBig playsDefensePacePass rate
Team ScoringConvertsBig playsDefensePacePass rate Identity
Delaware+0.1639.6%+1.45+0.0870.553.9%Big-play offense
Western Kentucky-0.0335.5%+1.20-0.5978.049.4%High-tempo
Jacksonville State+0.1645.9%+1.21-0.0462.342.2%Balanced
Liberty-0.0338.2%+1.29-0.1265.536.6%Balanced
Missouri State+0.0731.9%+1.17-0.1959.035.6%Can't sustain drives
Florida International+0.1539.1%+1.24+0.0175.557.6%Balanced
Middle Tennessee+0.2946.4%+1.17-0.1258.562.4%Balanced
New Mexico State+0.2343.8%+1.45-0.1365.751.3%Big-play offense
Kennesaw State+0.2348.5%+1.13-0.0368.550.4%Balanced
Sam Houston+0.1445.1%+1.18-0.0968.059.6%Balanced

Identity is the single dimension where a team is most above or below the FBS average (pace, defense, big plays, or converting drives) — "Balanced" means nothing stands out either way. CFBD 2026 advanced stats, excludes garbage time.

Top players

Conference USA's highest CFB Index Scores, 2025 season.

#PlayerTeamNational
1Jakari FosterSLouisiana Tech#4 of 544
2Elijah HillEDGEKennesaw State#12 of 420
3Damonte SmithIDLMiddle Tennessee#9 of 330
4Cam CookRBJacksonville State#5 of 326
5Mister ClarkCBFlorida International#12 of 364
6Kadarion JohnsonIDLUTEP#12 of 330
7Naeten MitchellSNew Mexico State#12 of 544
8Jacob FieldsSLouisiana Tech#20 of 544
9Sifa LeotaLBLouisiana Tech#40 of 583
10Walker O'SteenLBJacksonville State#41 of 583

Where Conference USA stands nationally

Conference strength by RR50 (round-robin adjusted power).

1 SEC SEC
+22.8
2 B10 Big Ten
+21.7
3 IND FBS Independents
+20.4
4 P12 Pac-12
+20.2
5 B12 Big 12
+19.5
6 ACC ACC
+19.2
7 AAC American Athletic
+17.3
8 SB Sun Belt
+17.0
9 CUSA Conference USA
+16.6
10 MAC Mid-American
+16.2