The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Delaware 22%, Kennesaw State 46%, Missouri State 59%
Win out 4% · expect 2.0 of 4 more wins
Florida International's chance to win each game left, from our model: Missouri State 59%, Delaware 22%, Kennesaw State 46%, Sam Houston 71%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 72% to 38%, peaking at 79% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 8th in the Conference USA · 1-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing J.J. Kohl 1,801 · Rushing Devonte Lyons 435 · Receiving Maguire Anderson 597 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #124 | #64 | +14.5✓ +4.5 | @South Florida | L 9-19 131 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Kohl 301 · Rush Kohl 31 · Rec Anderson 87 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #119 | #137 | −8.5✓ +4.5 | Buffalo | W 33-20 142 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Kohl 367 · Rush Carrie 49 · Rec Anderson 99 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #115 | #110 | +5.5✗ −0.5 | @Florida Atlantic | L 10-16 145 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Kohl 262 · Rush Carrie 44 · Rec Anderson 139 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #122 | #230 | −37.5✗ −20.5 | Long Island University | W 20-3 114 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Kohl 135 · Rush Carrie 71 · Rec Anderson 58 |
| 5 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 6 | Oct 7 | #131 | #137 | −7✓ +12 | New Mexico State | W 22-3 124 | 3-2 | 1-0 | Pass Kohl 115 · Rush Lyons 78 · Rec Gaines III 30 |
| 7 | Oct 13 | #116 | #72 | +3= | @Jacksonville State | L 24-27 127 Roaring | 3-3 | 1-1 | Pass Kohl 278 · Rush Lyons 73 · Rec Anderson 133 |
| 8 | Oct 20 | #106 | #167 | −10.5✗ −13.5 | Middle Tennessee | L 23-26 124 | 3-4 | 1-2 | Pass Kohl 179 · Rush Lyons 115 · Rec McNeal 49 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #122 | #45 | +13.5✗ −25.5 | @Liberty | L 10-49 112 | 3-5 | 1-3 | Pass Kohl 164 · Rush Lyons 52 · Rec McNeal 56 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #136 | #147 | −4.5 | Missouri State | 4 pm ET59% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #143 | #73 | @Delaware | 3 pm ET22% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Kennesaw State | 3 pm ET46% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Sam Houston | 2 pm ET | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Florida International, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Florida International: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Liberty | L 10-49 | 210 | 1 | 30:46 | -0.120 | 39.3% | 0.95 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 20 | Middle Tennessee | L 23-26 | 347 | 1 | 26:47 | -0.005 | 41.7% | 1.22 | One-score loss |
| Oct 13 | @Jacksonville State | L 24-27 | 404 | 0 | 33:44 | +0.198 | 41.9% | 1.19 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 7 | New Mexico State | W 22-3 | 220 | 1 | 37:54 | -0.069 | 38.2% | 0.79 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 26 | Long Island University | W 20-3 | 394 | 1 | 32:29 | +0.089 | 43.3% | 1.13 | Best success rate |
| Sep 19 | @Florida Atlantic | L 10-16 | 357 | 3 | 33:48 | -0.028 | 35.9% | 1.41 | Most explosive |
| Sep 12 | Buffalo | W 33-20 | 540 | 1 | 38:22 | +0.107 | 40.0% | 1.29 | |
| Sep 5 | @South Florida | L 9-19 | 381 | 3 | 29:51 | +0.111 | 38.2% | 1.13 | |
| Season average (8 games) | 357 | 1.4 | +0.035 | 39.8% | 1.14 | ||||
Florida International's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last three.
Range of outcomes · Florida International · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 5%; 4 wins 25%; 5 wins 41%; 6 wins 25%; 7 wins 4%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-5
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Conference USA teams the same season
Florida International is the Miami commuter school that sold its stadium's name to Pitbull and just had its best season in years — a program that wins by surprising even itself.
Panther fans live in the shadow of Miami and share a city that barely knows they exist; they say the only way FIU gets noticed is by winning, so they treat every bowl bid and every Shula Bowl scalp…
Florida International · Game-day weather
Typical at Pitbull Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 87, noon Saturdays 63
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Florida International is the Conference USA program whose 2002 program founding + Mario Cristobal era + Riccardo Silva Stadium identity define what Miami-G5-football looks like.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
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Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Florida International · 2026