South Florida beats Florida International 19-9
Team pages: Florida International · South Florida
South Florida beat Florida International 19-9. Share this game
We had South Florida favored. It won.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave South Florida an 81% chance, and the closing betting line (South Florida was a 14.5-point favorite) put it at 88%.
Favored the whole way: South Florida never fell below 80%.
Florida International never had better than a 19% chance.
South Florida 19-9 Florida International
South Florida wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Florida International 9-19 South FloridaFlorida International lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (South Florida -14.5), at 88% for South Florida (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
South Florida scored on 5 of its 9 drives; Florida International on 2 of its 10.
South Florida’s drives are teal, Florida International’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
South Florida’s chance to make the playoff rose from 12% to 13%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (September 4, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
South Florida 19, Florida International 9
Florida International covered +14.5 by 4.5. The total, 28, stayed under 53.5.
| Team totals | Florida International | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 381 | 208 |
| Passing | 31 of 50, 301 yds | 11 of 18, 100 yds |
| Rushing | 25 for 80 yds | 38 for 108 yds |
| First downs | 19 | 14 |
| Third down | 5 of 17 | 5 of 13 |
| Fourth down | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 |
| Penalties | 8 for 50 yds | 4 for 30 yds |
| Time of possession | 29:51 | 30:09 |
Florida International leaders
- Passing J.J. Kohl 31 of 50, 301 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing J.J. Kohl 6 for 31 yds; Anthony Carrie 10 for 31 yds
- Receiving Maguire Anderson 8 for 87 yds; Kyle Mcneal 5 for 44 yds
South Florida leaders
- Passing Michael Van Buren Jr. 11 of 18, 100 yds
- Rushing Jason Collins Jr. 17 for 59 yds; D.J. Crowther 14 for 42 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Arhmad Branch 5 for 47 yds; Bryson Rodgers 3 for 25 yds
No rain and calm
88° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the west-northwest, gusts to 23
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Tampa International Airport, 2.5 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Florida International · 7-6
Rated 124th in our preseason ratings.
L 20-57 @ UTSA #46 of 667
lost by 37 as a 7.5-point underdog
W 56-16 @ Sam Houston #235 of 667
won by 40 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 27-21 vs Jacksonville State #113 of 667
won by 6 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 34-27 vs Liberty #115 of 667
won by 7 as a 4.5-point underdog
W 56-30 @ Middle Tennessee #203 of 667
won by 26 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 21-28 @ Missouri State #134 of 667
lost by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 26-45 vs Kennesaw State #104 of 667
lost by 19 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 25-6 @ Western Kentucky #108 of 667
won by 19 as a 9.5-point underdog
L 10-51 @ UConn #63 of 667
lost by 41 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 16-38 vs Delaware #105 of 667
lost by 22 as a 5.5-point favorite
W 38-28 vs Florida Atlantic #88 of 667
won by 10 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 0-34 @ Penn StateTop 25 #7 of 667
lost by 34 as a 41.5-point underdog
W 42-9 vs Bethune-Cookman #218 of 667
won by 33 as a 26.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
South Florida · 9-4
Rated 64th in our preseason ratings.
L 10-24 vs Old Dominion #31 of 667
lost by 14 as a 4-point favorite
W 52-3 vs Rice #199 of 667
won by 49 as a 28.5-point favorite
W 48-18 @ UAB #183 of 667
won by 30 as a 22.5-point favorite
L 38-41 @ NavyTop 25 #91 of 667
lost by 3 as an 8.5-point favorite
W 55-23 vs UTSA #70 of 667
won by 32 as a 13.5-point favorite
L 31-34 @ MemphisTop 25 #38 of 667
lost by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 48-13 vs Florida Atlantic #98 of 667
won by 35 as a 20.5-point favorite
W 63-36 @ North TexasTop 25 #83 of 667
won by 27 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 54-26 vs Charlotte #190 of 667
won by 28 as a 28.5-point favorite
W 63-14 vs South Carolina State #171 of 667
won by 49 as a 35.5-point favorite
L 12-49 @ MiamiTop 25 #10 of 667
lost by 37 as a 17.5-point underdog
W 18-16 @ FloridaTop 25 #14 of 667
won by 2 as an 18.5-point underdog
W 34-7 vs Boise StateTop 25 #57 of 667
won by 27 as a 5.5-point underdog
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Florida International’s explosive plays against South Florida, 75 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Florida International’s explosive plays against South Florida’s defense
Florida International offense, 22nd percentile · South Florida defense, 97th
South Florida’s passing EPA against Florida International’s defense
South Florida offense, 23rd percentile · Florida International defense, 80th
Florida International’s EPA/play against South Florida’s defense
Florida International offense, 24th percentile · South Florida defense, 63rd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
South Florida leads the series 2-0
2 meetings since 2006 · South Florida has won the last 2
- 2008South Florida 17-9
- 2006South Florida 21-20
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
South Florida fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (88th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
South Florida favored by 14.5 · Total 53.5
How games like this usually go
South Florida by 14.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward South Florida.
Spread: −12.5 → −14.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Hot and dry. Feels like 95° at kickoff.
Florida International at South Florida · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium, Tampa
- 95°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 65weather score, Rough
- 2ndbest of the day's 7 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the second best of the day's seven kickoff times. At Raymond James Stadium that day, a 7:45 pm kickoff would have scored 69, against 65 at 7 pm.
- noon: 43, Harsh
- 12:45 pm: 43, Harsh
- 2 pm: 43, Harsh
- 3:30 pm: 45, Harsh
- 6 pm: 58, Rough
- 7 pm: 65, Rough (this game)
- 7:45 pm: 69, Rough
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
South Florida is worth +2.3 points (±4.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 19th percentile.
41% at home, 29% on the road against FBS opponents (17-24 home, 14-34 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.6 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 202 miles to get here.